Author Archives: Neil W. McCabe

About Neil W. McCabe

Neil W. McCabe is a political director for Gravis Marketing and a McCabe is the political director of Gravis Marketing. Washington-based journalist McCabe is the Washington editor of Armed American Radio and a Townhall.com columnist. McCabe was a staff writer and photographer for The Pilot, Boston's Catholic paper, as well as the editor of The Alewife and The Somerville News, two free community papers in the Boston-area. He was a senior reporter at Human Events and the editor of HE's Guns & Patriots newsletter. A veteran of the Army Reserve, he deployed to Iraq as a combat historian.

Sen. R. Edward "Ted" Cruz (R.-Texas)

Nevada poll: Sandoval early favorite to succeed Reid; Cruz surges to lead pack with Walker

Less than a week after Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid announced his retirement, the March 27 Townhall/Gravis poll of 850 registered Nevada voters found that Republican Gov. Brian E. Sandoval has strong leads over possible Democratic opponents.

Sandoval is a very strong candidate and being of Mexican descent gives him inroads to the minority voters,” said political consultant Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that conducted the poll.

telephone surveys nevada Nevada Gov. Brian E. Sandoval (Courtesy)

The  poll surveyed 433 registered Republicans, 319 registered Democrats and 98 Independents on their preferences for the Senate race to succeed Reid and their presidential preferences, said Kaplan. The poll carries a 3 percent margin of error, 5 percent for Republican-only questions and 6 percent for Democratic-only questions.

The Nevada governor leads Democratic Rep. Dina Titus, 55 percent to 37 percent and leads former state attorney general Catherine Cortez Masto, 53 percent to 37 percent, he said. Reid endorsed Cortez Masto as his chosen successor. Her father was for many years the leader of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.

Masto’s successor Attorney General Adam P. Laxalt, the grandson of one of President Ronald W. Reagan’s “First Friend,” long-serving Nevada senator Paul D. Laxalt, trails Masto 44 percent to 39 percent, Kaplan said. Laxalt trails Titus 46 percent to 44 percent.

Laxalt is close against Titus and Masto, but in the first look at this Senate race, Sandoval is the one with real separation,” he said.

Kaplan said in the presidential preferences, former secretary of state Hillary R. Clinton continues to dominate her potential rivals for the 2016 Democratic nomination.

Clinton leads the Democratic field with 61 percent, compared to 15 percent for Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 7 percent for Independent Vermont Sen. Bernard Sanders, 3 percent for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., 3 percent for Albert A. Gore Jr., and 1 percent for former Maryland governor Martin J. O’Malley, he said.

“The former first lady is in uncharted waters in terms of her support,” he said. “Across the country, Clinton is polling at extremely high levels, in some places double her support in the same state in 2008.”

In the crowded Republican field, Texas Sen. R. Edward Cruz with 18 percent surged out of the crowd to join the twin leaders, Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker, 18 percent and former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, 16 percent, Kaplan said. Twenty percent of Nevada’s GOP voters are undecided.

“We were expecting to see a pop for Cruz,” he said. The Texas senator announced his official candidacy March 23.

Walker should be concerned about hitting a ceiling right now, while Bush is in good shape. Bush’s voters are not going anywhere and he has the money and organization to stick out a long campaign,” he said.

“Walker is fighting for the non-Bush vote and besides Cruz, he has to worry about Rubio, who is the next candidate we expect to pop.” Florida Sen. Marco A. Rubio garnered the support of 7 percent of Nevada Republicans.

Notes: Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of 850 registered voters in Nevada regarding potential matchups. The voter list sample includes 443 Republican Primary participants, 319 Democratic Primary participants, and the remainder are Independents/Other. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3% [5% for Republican Primary/6% for Democratic Primary]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls are weighted separately for each population in the question presented.

Note: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.  A full reporting of demographic characteristics and cross tabulations is available upon request.  Email us.  Prior Nevada Poll With Senator Reid

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

If the Nevada Republican Caucuses for President were held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson, whom would you vote for?

If the Nevada Democratic Caucuses for President was held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Adam Laxalt and Democrat Dina Titus, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Michael Roberson and Democrat Dina Titus, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Brian Sandoval and Democrat Dina Titus, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Dina Titus, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Adam Laxalt and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Michael Roberson and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Brian Sandoval and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Brian Sandoval and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

Who do you consider more honest and trustworthy Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton?

Should Congress pass legislation overriding the ability of states to legalize and regulate online gambling?

18% Yes

41% No

41% Unsure

Prior Nevada Poll Results

Jeb Bush (R)19%
Chris Christie (R)8%
Ted Cruz (R)6%
Mike Huckabee (R)6%
Bobby Jindal (R)1%
Rand Paul (R)3%
Rick Perry (R)6%
Marco Rubio (R)4%
Rick Santorum (R)4%
Scott Walker (R)27%
Undecided16%

 

Gravis Marketing Political Poll

S.C. poll: Cruz breaks out to challenge Walker, Bush; Graham at 9 percent in crowded GOP field

As the senior senator from South Carolina contemplates a 2016 run for the White House, the March 26-27, 2015 Townhall/Gravis poll of Palmetto State 1,371 voters, 899 registered Republicans and 472 registered Independents found he garners support of 9 percent against the crowded GOP field.

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham placed fourth, behind the two front runners, Sen. R. Edward “Ted” Cruz, 13 percent; former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, 16 percent and Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker, 17 percent, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that conducted the poll. The poll carries a 3 percent margin of error.

“We asked two questions, one with Graham in the race and one with Graham not in the race,” Kaplan said. “With Graham in the race, his 9 percent pulls from across the field, rather than hurting any one candidate.”

If the South Carolina Republican Primary for President was held today and he candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Lindsey Graham, whom would you vote for?

MarchSCwGraham

With Graham in the race, undecided voters stood at 18 percent and without Graham the undecided stood at 17 percent, he said.

“Just as in other states, where we have been polling, Bush-and-Walker-Walker-and-Bush has separated from the rest of the pack as the leaders,” Kaplan said. “We have been looking for a third candidate to break out and join Bush and Walker, and it could be Cruz. In South Carolina, Cruz polls at 11 percent with Graham out of the race.”

The Republican Primary question was posed twice.  The first response includes Lindsey Graham; the second does not.

If the South Carolina Republican Primary for President was held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson, whom would you vote for?

MarchSCwoGraham

Florida Sen. Marco A. Rubio could be the other candidate that breaks out to join the leader pack, he said. “In both polls, Rubio polls at 6 percent.”

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R.-S.C.)

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R.-S.C.)

Gravis Insights a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random phone survey of 1,371 registered voters in South Carolina regarding potential matchups. The poll comprised 899 Republicans voters and 472 Independents and has a margin of error of ± 3%. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The political poll was conducted March 26, 2015 – March 27, 2015 results are weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

Note: the polls were conducted using the Gravis outbound dialer IVR software and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.  A complete reporting of demographics and cross tabulations are available upon request.  Please email us.

Gravis Insights is a division of Gravis Marketing Firm, a political consulting and market research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida.  Previous Gravis South Carolina Poll 

Former Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton laughs in the Oval Office with Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. (center) and President Barack Obama. Clinton has the support of 49 percent of New Hampshire Democrats, compared to Biden's 5 percent. (Courtesy)

NH poll: Clinton maintains huge lead; Walker, Bush lead GOP pack; Ayotte in virtual tie with Hassan

The former first lady of Arkansas and the United States continues to dominate the Democratic field

Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker and former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush lead the pack of GOP contenders, according to a March 18-19 Howie Carr Show/Gravis insights Telephone Survey of Granite State voters.

Clinton garners historic levels of success heading into 2016

Hillary R. Clinton is the choice of 49 percent of the 427 Democrats polled, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based political consulting firm that conducted the poll. The Democratic poll has a 5 percent margin of error.

The poll validates the strength of Hillary Clinton’s candidacy with voters, he said.

“Our poll captured the mood of voters at the height of Clinton’s email controversy and it had no negative effect—if anything it helped Clinton,” Kaplan said.

“Secretary Clinton at this point is unprecedented–really, it is nothing we have seen before,” Kaplan said.

“At this stage in 2008, she was nowhere near these numbers, which makes it even more unlikely that Bay State Sen. Elizabeth Warren will jump in the race,” he said. “Clinton polled well nationally in 2008, but not in the early states. Today, we see Clinton with huge leads everywhere.”

Warren finished second in the poll with 20 percent, followed by Sen. Bernard “Bernie” Sanders (D.-Vt.) with 12 percent, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., 5 percent; former Virginia senator James H. Webb Jr., 2 percent and former Maryland governor Martin J. O’Malley, 2 percent.

GOP field very competitive

Former Florida governor John E. "Jeb" Bush sits with former New Hampshire governor John Sununu during at March visit to the Granite State. Sununu was White House chief of staff for Bush's father, President George H. W. Bush. (Courtesy)

Former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush sits with former New Hampshire governor John Sununu during at March visit to the Granite State. Sununu was White House chief of staff for Bush’s father, President George H. W. Bush. (Courtesy)

“The real race is on the Republican side,” he said. “Bush and Walker are very close, but we think Walker’s numbers are stalled at 20 percent.”

Kaplan said among the 683 Republicans polled, Walker was the choice of 19 percent versus Bush at 18 percent. The poll of Republicans carries a margin of error of 4 percent.

The undecided GOP voters make up 16 percent of the sample, he said.

Bush has money and organization that Walker is still building up, he said. “The question now is whether Walker can generate a second push now that the momentum from his announcement has hit a ceiling.”

Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott K. Walker (Courtesy)

Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott K. Walker (Courtesy)

The other question is whether Walker will pull support from other candidates as the Stop-Bush candidate, Kaplan said.

March NH GOP Poll

“We still think the Republican race has a long way to go,” he said.

“One of the reasons why the Republican race is so competitive is that there are so many strong candidates,” he said. “Now that Bush and Walker have emerged as leaders, in the next month we are looking for moves from either Rubio or Cruz that make it a three-way race.”

In head-to-head competitions, the former first lady performs very well against Republicans, he said.

Clinton leads Bush, 43 percent to 40 percent; leads Walker, 46 percent to 43 percent and leads Paul, 45 percent to 42 percent.

Ayotte in tough fight for reelection

New Hampshire Republican Kelly A. Ayotte with her husband Joseph Daley. (Courtesy)

New Hampshire Republican Kelly A. Ayotte with her husband Joseph Daley. (Courtesy)

In addition to the New Hampshire Presidential Primary, Sen. Kelly A. Ayotte (R.-N.H.) is up for reelection in 2016 and her leading potential opponent is Democratic Gov. Margaret Wood Hassan.

Ayotte was a Tea Party darling in 2010, especially after former Alaska governor Sarah Palin endorsed her in the GOP primary. It is fair to say that Ayotte is no longer the Tea Party darling—rather, she is firmly in the orbit of the GOP’s Capitol Hill leadership working against conservatives.

Head-to-head, Ayotte leads Hassan, 47 percent to 45 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

That result has got to have Ayotte concerned.

Notes:

The polls were conducted using IVR software and predictive dialing software weighted by historical voting demographics.  A complete accounting of the demographic crosstabs are available upon request.  Email us.

Gravis Insights, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random phone survey of potential Republican and Democratic Primary voters in New Hampshire. The poll included 683 respondents for the Republican Primary and 427 for the Democratic Primary. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4% for the Republican Primary and ± 5%. Results may not sum to 100% because of rounding. The weighting of the results was performed separately depending on whether the question was for all respondents, just Republicans, or just Democrats.Graphics
Approval of Obama

Republican Primary

Democratic Primary

President, Bush or Clinton

President, Walker or Clinton

President, Paul or Clinton

President, Christie or Clinton

Senate

Florida Primary Poll

Florida poll: Jeb, Walker lead in GOP Sunshine State poll

Head-to-head, former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush barely beats his acolyte Sen. Marco A. Rubio in the Feb. 24-25 Howie Carr/Gravis poll of 513 registered Republican voters, but in an open field Bush is in a virtual tie with Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker with Rubio finishing third.

The latest Gravis Insights telephone Survey was conducting using automated IVR polling software, Gravis used a random sample of registered voters. The public opinion poll has a 95% confidence level.

If the Republican Primary election for President were held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, whom would you vote for?

“Pitted against each other, Bush is at 40 percent and Rubio is at 36 percent,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that conducted the poll. The poll carries a margin of error of 5 percent.  The total may not round to 100% because of rounding.

But, when the field is opened up to other candidates, the dynamic changes, he said. “We are seeing the early stages of two-man horse race between Bush and Walker.”

In the open field, Bush still leads with 23 percent to Walker’s 22 percent, he said.

“But, Bush v. Walker is, again, inside the margin of error,” he said.

“Rubio is popular, but in his home state, he is taking a back seat to Bush v. Walker,” he said. “Even among Hispanics, Bush takes 24 percent, Walker 23 and Rubio, a Cuban-American, comes in third with 11 percent—roughly, his same level of support across the state’s Republicans in an open field.”

By law, Rubio cannot run for both president and for reelection to the Senate, but, he does not have to make that decision until May 2016–and by then, the primary season will be winding down anyway.

The other GOP hopefuls offered in the survey fared like this:

If the Republican primary election for President were held today and the candidates were Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Rick Perry, Ben Carson and Jeb Bush, whom would you vote for?

Check out other results from the poll here: 

Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Republicans

Democrats

If the Republican primary election for Senate were held today and Senator Marco Rubio was not a candidate and the candidates were Pam Bondi, Jeff Atwater, or Adam Putnam, whom would you vote for?


If the Democratic primary election for President were held today and the candidates were Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Mark Warner, Jim Webb, Martin O’Malley, and Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

 

Demographic crosstabs are available upon request. Please email us.
Note: the polls were conducted using automated  IVR polling technology and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.The poll compromised 513 Republicans and has a 4% margin of error and 435 Democrats with a 5% margin of error.  Gravis Insights is a division of Gravis Marketing, Inc.

Walker Political Poll

Poll: Palmetto Republicans favor Bush, Walker

Gravis Marketing Political Poll South Carolina

South Carolina Republicans give further evidence that the campaign for the 2016 GOP nomination for president is stabilized into a horse race between the governor of Wisconsin and former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, according the Feb. 24-25 Townhall/Gravis poll of 792 Republican voters.

With Bush at 19 percent and Badger State Gov. Scott K. Walker at 17 percent, the two men are in a virtual tie, said Doug Kaplan, the managing director of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that conducted the political poll. The poll carries a 3 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted using  hosted IVR  software technology and predictive dialer software and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

The surprise in the poll was the performance of the favorite son candidate, Sen. Lindsey O Graham, who was the choice of 12 percent of Republicans, Kaplan said. Graham’s ranking was third, but behind the 16 percent of undecided respondents.

“We are not seeing Graham gain traction in any of our other polls,” he said. “What we are seeing is Walker and Bush, neck-and-neck in the front, followed by the rest of the pack.”

The the results for the other GOP candidates: Michael Huckabee, 10 percent; New Jersey Gov. Christopher J. Christie, 8 percent; Florida Sen. Marco A. Rubio, 6 percent; Kentucky Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul, 6 percent; followed by three candidates each at 2 percent: Texas Sen. R. Edward Cruz, Richard J. Santorum and Carly Fiorino.

If the South Carolina Republican Primary for President was held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Lindsey Graham, whom would you vote for?

The Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary are the two important tests of a candidate’s ability to connect with individual voters before the primaries map expands. After those two contests, for Republicans, the South Carolina Primary acts as a firewall to protect the party from selecting a non-conservative.

Delving into the details of the poll, it is hard to find places, where Walker or Bush have a distinct advantage.

Bush is the choice of 36 percent of Hispanic South Carolina Republicans compared to Walker’s 18 percent support. Among black Republicans, Bush has 27 percent compared to Walker’s 7 percent.

Walker hold a 2 to 1 lead over Bush among Republicans with post-graduate degrees, 27 percent to 13 percent. But, Bush is the choice of high school graduates 24 percent to 8 percent.

Broken down by religion, Bush is the choice of both Catholic and Evangelical Christians with 29 percent and 25 percent, respectively. Walker has the support of 23 percent of Catholics and 18 percent of Evangelical Christians.

Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Among Catholics, Rubio comes in third with 15 percent of support and among Evangelical Christians, Huckabee is the choice of 19 percent.

Note: Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of 792 registered voters in South Carolina regarding potential matchups.  The poll comprised 792 Republicans voters and has a margin of error of ± 3%.  The total may not round to 100% because of rounding.  The results are weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

Full crosstab details are available upon request.  Please email us.