Category Archives: News

Current South Carolina Polling

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 768 registered voters across South Carolina. The poll was conducted from August 15th to the 17th and has a margin of error of ± 3.5% at the 95% confidence level. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls and online responses internet panels of cell phone respondents and weighted by voting patterns.

Q2: Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s Job Performance?
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Q3: If you had to vote today in a matchup between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
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Q4: If you had to vote today in a matchup between Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, who would you vote for?
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Q5: Do you think that gay conversion therapy aimed at changing a person’s sexual orientation should be legal or illegal for minors in your state?
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The following questions are for demographic purposes:
What is your party affiliation?
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What is your political ideology?
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What race do you identify yourself as?
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Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
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What is the highest level of education have you completed?
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How old are you?
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What is your gender?
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Gravis Marketing and Breitbart News Network Partner for 2016 General Election Polling

Winter Springs, Fla. – When Doug Kaplan co-founded Gravis Marketing in 2010, he envisioned elevating the credibility and reliability of political polling. Six short years later, the non-partisan marketing and research firm based in Winter Springs, Fla. has received countless awards and has been showcased on some of the most recognized news sources in the United States. This past week, Breitbart News Network announced that it is launching a new partnership with Gravis Marketing to create the Breitbart / Gravis Poll Series; which will focus on General Election polling across the United States for the upcoming 2016 Presidential election.

Founded in 2007 by noted entrepreneur Andrew Breitbart and headquartered in Los Angeles, Calif., with news bureaus in Texas, London, and Jerusalem; Breitbart News Network has established a solid reputation for delivering hard-hitting, factual news without the slant or bias often associated with today’s news networks. Ranked as one of the Top 1000 visited websites globally according to Alexa.com, Breitbart News Network is a rapidly growing news organization with a similar vision as Gravis Marketing – to provide real time information in regards to seeking the pulse of the American voter.

“The explosive growth of Breitbart News rests on our ability to provide real time, actionable information to our community,” said Stephen K. Bannon, the Executive Chairman of Breitbart News Network. “Our partnership with Gravis is focused on just that — quantifying where the American people are on the issues of the day and the trends of tomorrow. Breitbart/Gravis will become a significant voice in the 2016 campaign and beyond.”

Breitbart News Editor-in-chief Alexander Marlow added; “It is not enough to grouse about bias and corruption. The best way to fight back is to get in the game ourselves, and that’s exactly what we’ve done.”

Gravis Marketing’s accurate polling results have been recognized by multiple media sources in 2016. Bloomberg Politics named Gravis Marketing the most accurate poll during the 2016 primary season but also received an A- grade from Political Pundit Daily at the end of 2015. Gravis’ ability to infuse new data collection methods with remarkably accurate polling samples has rapidly accelerated the firm’s growth and establishes a solid foundation for the new Breitbart / Gravis Poll Series.

“I’m incredibly humbled that Breitbart has chosen Gravis Marketing to partner for their 2016 polling series,” noted Gravis Marketing President Doug Kaplan. “They have an incredible reach, verticals and bureaus all around the world.  Our firm has the bandwidth to produce polls efficiently, accurately, and quickly; which was a major factor on why Breitbart chose our team.”

Kaplan continued to state; “Andrew Breitbart was a conservative icon. He liberated millions of Americans from the mindlock of the mainstream media and the news platform he created, Breitbart News Network, is the biggest source of breaking news and analysis, thought-leading commentary, and original reporting curated and written specifically for the new generation of independent and conservative thinkers.”

The new Breitbart / Gravis Poll Series is set to kick off in August 2016. Polling data will be posted at Breitbart.com.

Campaign Plan

Do You Need A Campaign Plan?

Before you ask yourself whether you need a political campaign plan, you should ask yourself if you are serious about winning your election. If you are serious about winning your campaign, whether it is running for local office or President, you need a winning political campaign strategy.

Your campaign plan is more than just a blueprint on how to run a political campaign or to describe what the role of a political campaign manager is.  Your campaign plan details every aspect of your path to electoral victory – from your budget and timeline to your target audience and message.

Planning is essential to winning.  You cannot get a business loan without a business plan.  You cannot build a bridge without an architect and engineer.  Winning campaigns require strategies that are developed by campaign managers and consultants

here are many facets to consider when developing a plan to run a successful campaign.  They include (but are not limited to):

  • Campaign budget
  • Campaign timeline
  • Opposition research
  • Assessment of each candidate’s strengths and weaknesses
  • Evaluation of issues that matter in a political campaign
  • Voter identification and targeting
  • Grassroots organization and tactics
  • Media relations
  • Social media
  • Broadcast media
  • Digital media
  • Direct mail

Before you start planning your political campaign, or learn how to run for local office, your first question to answer is “why am I running for office?”

Answering this question is central to building a winning political strategy.  The answer may change or evolve over time, but a candidate for office should always understand the reason for seeking election.

Most candidates for elected office begin by searching for answers to questions in the Internet such as “how to run a political campaign,” or “how to win a campaign.”  The first search should be for a county elections office, board of elections, election clerk, Secretary of State, or other election official.  Contacting the local election office is the first step in determining what actions must be taken to appear on the ballot.

Running for office is more than figuring out how to become a candidate or putting up yard signs. The way to win a campaign is to plan every step of the way before you even begin.  Once this has been accomplished, the campaign manager can develop the campaign organizational chart and determine what campaign staff jobs are required. Also, you may be asking yourself questions such as “What is a political consultant,” or “What are the duties of a campaign manager?”

Experienced consultants can guide you along the way when you decide to seek elected office.  Campaign consultants, and campaign managers, can develop a budget that maximizes the effect of every dollar spent.  Consultants are also skilled at developing target audiences and using data to help win your race.  Consultants also must stay on the cutting edge of campaign and election technology so that you have every opportunity to reach voters in whatever medium makes the most sense according to the plan.

A plan is not developed overnight.  Creating your campaign plan requires careful preparation and examination of your resources, issues, effective tactics, and identifying likely voters.

Gravis marketing has many years of experience in helping candidates win votes and successfully win on election night.  The Gravis team can develop robust campaign plans for your race at any level from city council and school board to state legislature, countywide, statewide and federal campaigns.  Gravis marketing can take your campaign to the next level and help you achieve victory.

GRAVIS MARKETING POLL’S MAKING THE GRADE AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE

Winter Springs, Fla. based political polling company’s stock is rising according to Nate Silver’s 538 Review of all US political polling firms in 2016.

Winter Springs, Fla. – The past two years has been extremely hard on political pollsters across the United States. With many of the established polling firms showing less than stellar results since 2014, Winter Springs, Fla.’s Gravis Marketing’s ratings are rising; thanks in part to a published report by noted political polling expert Nate Silver and his 538 Pollster Ratings for all US based polling firms.

The quickly expanding non-partisan marketing research company received a grade of “B-“, an improvement from Silver’s last review in 2014 when he awarded Gravis Marketing a “C” grade. Silver’s glowing review of Gravis Marketing, plus the A- grade the firm received from Political Pundit Daily at the end of 2015 is proving that the ‘new guy on the block’ is quickly becoming a credible source of accurate polling data.

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings have arguably been the Gold Standard on which all polling firms are independently reviewed and ranked since 1998. Their grading system and rankings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls. Accuracy scores account for the type of election, a poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors.

The 538 review also calculates measures of statistical bias in the polls. Silver’s review of Gravis Marketing included analyzing 55 previous polls in the past two years, discovering that they accurately predicted results 79 percent of the time; placing them in the upper tier of more than 300 independent polling organizations.

538-2016 Poll Ratings

Gravis Marketing is a relative newcomer to the highly competitive political polling world. Since its launch in 2010, the firm led by Doug Kaplan has rapidly made a positive impact in the world of collecting accurate polling data for small, local political campaigns to large-scale, nationwide campaigns for major political parties. Although the recent Silver and Political Pundit Daily reviews have highlighted the growth and improvement of Gravis’ polling results, founder Doug Kaplan remains incredibly proud of the team at Gravis Marketing that has exceeded his own expectations.

“To say that we’re incredibly honored to be placed among the top tier of polling firms in the United States by Nate Silver the 538 blog would be the understatement of the century,” Kaplan noted. “When we launched our firm in 2010, our goal was to continually improve our polling methodology and technology we use to collect accurate data. When I think about some of the incredible companies that we have eclipsed not only with Silver’s review but the Political Pundit Daily scorecard last year, it really provides confidence that what we’re doing is working.”

Although the firm showed incredible improvement from 2012 to the mid-term elections in 2014, Kaplan was resolved to continue to expand and fine-tune their polling methodology coming into the 2016 Presidential election. He noticed a growing trend that other polling firms and most political parties don’t want to admit – the electorate is vastly changing. It is Gravis’ dedication to not remaining complacent and their flexibility to fine-tune their polling collection process that Kaplan believes is what separates his firm from most of the competition.

“We’re very happy with the recent rankings; but we know we can improve – and must if we wish to compete,” Kaplan concluded. “I’ve tried to build a polling team that is separate from our political consulting firm so that we can focus on providing exceptional and focused services to our clients ranging from people running for local school boards or county commission to US Congress and Senatorial seats. We’ve come a long way in a short time, and I’m incredibly excited about our future.”

Inoculation is worth a pound of cure

 

The old adage starts out “an ounce of prevention…”  The wisdom is thainoculation theory t a pound of cure, after exposure to a harmful element, is far more expensive and painful than the cost of dealing with the issue before it becomes harmful.

When Ben Franklin first imparted his advice, he did not limit it to medicine.  Far from it.  His statement is an analogy that is relevant in nearly every facet of life – including politics.

When deciding to run for office, candidates must be honest with themselves.  They must take stock of their shortcomings and their “youthful indiscretions.”  Candidates must take full account of their controversial decisions and votes.  They must inventory their own “derogatories” because any opponent with a scintilla of common sense will have their own catalog of your shortcomings with which they might attack.

Once a candidate knows his own points of weakness, he can evaluate which ones might be the most damaging in a campaign.  Of those damaging issues, a candidate can narrow down the ones that the opponent most likely knows.  Of those, which ones are best documented?  Of the issues left, which ones does the opponent have the moral high ground, meaning she does not have the same shortcomings?  Finally, a candidate must evaluate how much money the opponent likely has and how much of that budget they might be willing to spend on an attack.

A campaign should be able to identify the one or two issues most likely to be used in an attack.  Once this is known, creating a plan to mitigate or even prevent an attack is imperative.

In politics, this process is referred to as “inoculation”.  Inoculation can come in many forms, but the idea is that a campaign take control of an issue, and tell its own story, before the opponent decides to go on the attack.

Direct mail is an excellent venue to deliver an inoculation.  A campaign should be able to target the audience deemed most important in order to win a campaign.  A campaign can pinpoint, with amazing accuracy, the precise households that will be most receptive and impacted by an inoculation message.

As with television and the Internet, direct mail is a visual medium.  A campaign must be able to tell a story with powerful images, while using as few words as possible, to achieve its goals in direct mail.  If a candidate wishes to inoculate against a youthful indiscretion, for instance, using a photo of a youthful candidate while describing the “offense” is an effective way to contrast with a more mature candidate now.  Another critical element in an inoculation effort is to explain how the recovery from the youthful indiscretion makes the candidate a stronger, better choice than if the incident never occurred.

Another reason direct mail is an excellent medium to use is the fact that it is more difficult for an opponent to track.  When a campaign purchases television or radio, a public record exists that is available to the opposition.  The opponent will know the exact audience that the campaign is trying to reach, and that allows the opposition to mount a counterstrike.  With direct mail, the mailing list that a campaign uses is proprietary.  Unless the opponent is engaging in some level of unlawful espionage, the mail list is known only to the campaign manager and the mail house – both of whom have professional obligations of confidentiality and nondisclosure.

In some cases a campaign may want to increase the effectiveness of its inoculation message.  A corresponding digital campaign can be targeted to IP addresses associated with the mail list used for the inoculation direct mail piece.  This tactic ensures that the same households targeted for direct mail will also be targeted for the digital ad.  The digital ad can link to the candidate’s web site, social media, or another location that is designed to tell the same story in the direct mail.

The nature of inoculation means that a campaign is choosing to be proactive before the opposition wages an attack.  There is never a guarantee that an opponent will go on the attack.  However, a compelling case can be made to create an inoculation when the issue in question is one that will move voters.  The motivation towards inoculation becomes stronger if the issue is one that is available in public records.  Another factor to assist in the decision to create an inoculation message is the resources of the opposition.  By studying publicly available finance reports, a campaign can evaluate if the opponent has enough resources to issue a negative message.

Whether or not to issue an inoculation is a decision that a candidate should not make on his or her own.  Objective, experienced, and skilled consultants can help guide a campaign in tough situations such as these.  The professionals at Gravis Marketing are experienced and trained to handle the most difficult campaigns.  No matter what situation you are facing, Gravis has been there.  Gravis can help you tell your story, and Gravis can help you identify the exact audience for each story.