Category Archives: Polls

Current Iowa Polling

February 12, 2015 – February 13, 2015

Executive Summary

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 969 registered voters in Iowa regarding potential matchups [343 Republicans]. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3% [5% for the Republican Primary question]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding.

Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

approval of obama [ONLY REPUBLICANS] If the Iowa Republican caucuses for President were held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson, Who would you vote for?

republican primaryIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

president bush or clintonIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

president walker or clinton If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

president huckabee or clintonIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

president christie or clinton If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

president paul or clintonThe following questions are for demographic purposes.

What race do you identify yourself as?

raceWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

religious affiliatoin What is the highest level of education have you completed?

education categoryHow old are you?

age groupWhat is your gender?

Note: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

Current Nevada Polling

Executive Summary

Gravis Insights, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of 955 registered voters in Nevada regarding potential matchups. The sample includes 438 Republican Primary participants, 324 Democratic Primary participants, and 193 planning to vote in 2016, but will not participate in the primary elections. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3% [5% for Republican Primary/6% for Democratic Primary]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls are weighted separately for each population in the question presented. The poll was 2-21-2015 and 2-22-2015

 

 

approval of obamaDo you plan on voting in the Republican or Democratic Caucuses for the 2016 Presidential Election?

primary vote[REPUBLICANS ONLY] If the Nevada Republican Caucuses for President were held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Perry, Who would you vote for?

Republican Primary[DEMOCRATS ONLY] If the Nevada Democratic Caucuses for President was held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, Who would you vote for?

Democratic PrimaryIf the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Adam Laxalt and Democrat Harry Reid, Who would you vote for?

senate lexIf the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Brian Krolicki and Democrat Harry Reid, Who would you vote for?

senate kroIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, Who would you vote for?

bush or clintonIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, Who would you vote for?

paul or clinton If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton, Who would you vote for?

christie or clintonIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Hillary Clinton, Who would you vote for?

walker or clintonIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Brian Sandoval and Democrat Hillary Clinton, Who would you vote for?

sandoval or clintonThe following questions are for demographic purposes.

What is your political party affiliation?

partyWhat race do you identify yourself as?

raceWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

religious affiliationWhat is the highest level of education have you completed?

education categoryHow old are you?

age groupWhat is your gender?

genderNote: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by anticipated voting demographics. Gravis Insights is a dvision of Gravis Marketing, a Florida based consulting and market research firm. Gravis Marketing also develops political campaign websites and  digital advertising.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker

Iowa poll: Walker garners 24% of GOP support, Paul & Bush trail at 10%; Clinton beats Walker, others head-to-head

Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker dominates a crowded field of GOP White House contenders with 24 percent of Republicans, but former first lady Hillary R. Clinton shows general election strength head-to-head against Walker and others, according to a Feb. 12-13 Townhall/Gravis poll of 969 registered Iowa voters.

In the previous Townhall/Gravis Iowa poll, conducted Jan. 5-7, former Massachusetts governor W. Mitt Romney led the Republican field with support of 21 percent of Republicans, 14 percent for former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush and 10 percent for Walker, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that executed the poll.The telephone survey was conducted using automated IVR software

republican primary

The poll was conducting using IVR phone software and voter lists. Gravis Marketing is one of the leading political consulting firms in Florida. The poll carries a 4 percent margin of error. The poll queried 343 Republicans for the GOP candidates.

We see Scott Walker leading; he clearly took the Mitt Romney vote,” Kaplan said. “The debates the Republicans will have that start later in the year will be much more important than previous years.”

In the new poll, Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul (R.-Ky.) is tied with with Bush with 10 percent of Republicans, he said.

There are still 15 percent of Republicans undecided, he said.

The rest of the field is as follows:

It is hard in a large field to get a real number, when out of a dozen or more possible candidates, only six or eight will be viable Jan. 5, 2016, the day of the Iowa caucuses,” he said.

Among Democrats, Clinton does not have significant opposition, he said.

bumper sticker 6_20_13

Hillary is in a great position right now. Her biggest decision right now is when to announce and if she should debate the likes of Jim Webb and socialist party member Senator Bernie Sanders,” he said.

We believe, ironically, what cost Hillary Clinton the nomination in 2008 was the African American vote. We believe that vote will be her saving grace no matter who runs against her this time,” he said.

We can’t imagine the African American vote rallying around Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders–Sanders is not even part of the Democratic party, but an independent socialist,” he said.

Kaplan, a national political consultant, said Clinton’s support is strong among all voters, as demonstrated by five head-to-head scenarios.

Hillary R. Clinton (Official State Dept. photo)

Hillary R. Clinton (Official State Dept. photo)

Going to head-to-head with Walker, Clinton leads 47 percent to 41 percent. But, inside the polls crosstabs, Walker beats Clinton 56 to 38 percent among males and 49 to 44 percent among voters with a four-year college degree. The former secretary of state leads Walker among voters with post-graduate degrees by a margin of 57 to 33 percent.

Clinton beats Bush 43 to 37 percent, beats Paul 44 percent to 39 percent, beats Huckabee 45 to 40 percent and beats Christie 45 to 35 percent.

Gravis Insights is a division of Gravis Marketing, Inc. Gravis provides public opinion polls, political campaign websites, and consulting services.

NH Poll

NH Poll: Walker’s 23% leads crowded GOP field; Clinton dominates with 44%

The governor of Wisconsin is the clear choice for president of New Hampshire Republicans and former first lady Hillary R. Clinton leads other Granite State’s 2016 first-in-the-nation primary, according to the Feb. 2-3 Howie Carr/Gravis poll of 608 Republicans and 384 Democrats. The Margin of error 4% for republicans, Dems 5%.

“The poll ran right after Mitt Romney got out of the race, so what we are seeing it the move of Romney’s support to Gov. Scott K. Walker, who was the choice of 23 percent,” said Doug Kaplan, managing partner at Gravis Insights, the Florida-based company that conducted the poll.

It was expected that Romney’s support would go to former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, he said. “Jeb did well at 16 percent, but with 14 percent undecided, he still has not made his case.”

Republican Primary

The poll was conducting using IVR phone software. and voter lists. Gravis Marketing is one of the leading political consulting firms in Florida. The poll carries a 4 percent margin of error.

“Walker has a national reputation and when he won in Wisconsin last time, he won big against an excellent candidate, especially groomed and marketed to be a not-so liberal alternative,” he said. “We are talking about Wisconsin, where Walker governs like a conservative. It just goes to show he has charisma.”

Kentucky’s Sen. Randal H. Paul was the choice of 11 percent, he said.

“Rand Paul has a different message, just about moved to New Hampshire and has people around him that used to work for Bob Smith,” he said. “With the undecideds at 14 percent there is room for Paul to make up ground.”

“It was not reflected in the poll, but we really believe that Mike Huckabee needs to be reckoned with in this race,” he said. “In 2008, he ran under the radar and ended up winning Iowa and finishing second to John McCain in the final delegate count–in the storefront and coffee shop politics of the New Hampshire primary, Huckabee could do very well.”

On the Democratic side, Kaplan said the race is over and Hillary Clinton won.

Democratic Primary

“Clinton is not really running yet, she is jogging and she is one visit to the state away from reaching 50 percent,” he said.

“Elizabeth Warren is the buzz with people who report on buzz, she does not the buzz with regular New Hampshire Democrats–Warren is from Massachusetts and half of New Hampshire is part of a Warren-loving Boston media market– her 25 percent is very disappointing,” he said.

In addition to Warren’s failure to launch, Clinton’s numbers are very strong, he said.

“In the year before the 2008 New Hampshire primary, Hillary never had numbers about 40 percent,” Kaplan said. “She was tracking 21-25-19 percent, and she eventually won with 39 percent.”

Latest Gravis Marketing Iowa Poll

Other charts associated with the poll:

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Republicans

Rep Approval of ObamaDemocrats

Dem Approval of obama

The following questions are for demographic purposes.

What is your political party affiliation?

Republican

Party RepDemocrat

Party Dem What race do you identify yourself as?

Republican

Race RepDemocrat

Race DemWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Republican

Religious affiliation RepDemocrat

Religious affiliation Dem What is the highest level of education you have completed?

Republican

Education category RepDemocrat

Education category DemHow old are you?

Republican

Age group RepDemocrat

Age group DemWhat is your gender?

Republican

Gender RepDemocrat

Gender DemNote: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by selected voting demographics. Gravis Marketing provides predictive dialer services and political direct mail.

Young advocates for the unborn at the Jan. 22, 2014 March for Life in Washington. (Courtesy)

NC Poll: 69% Tarheel GOP voters aged 18 to 49 support 20-week abortion ban

Less than two weeks after Rep. Renee Ellmers (R.-N.C.) sabotaged the expected passage of the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act, 69 percent of North Carolina Republicans aged 18 to 49 support the ban on abortions after 20-weeks asked directly without conditions or nuance in aTownhall/Gravis poll of 782 randomly selected registered GOP voters.

Sixty percent of Republicans aged 50 to 64 support the ban, as do 55 percent of GOP voters older than 65, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based pollster the executed the poll. The Jan. 31 poll carries a margin of error of 3.5 percent.he said.

Ellmers, the chairwoman of the Republican Women’s Policy Committee, signed up as a co-sponsor of , H.R. 36, Jan. 9, but on the Jan. 20 anniversary of the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision the congresswoman withdrew her name as a co-sponsor. In 2013, Ellmers voted for the same bill.

Republican Women's Policy Committee (Courtesy)

Republican Women’s Policy Committee (Courtesy)

Kaplan said 58 percent of all Republican voters, who were asked: “Would you support a federal outlawing abortions after 20 weeks or pregnancy?” said they supported the ban and 27 percent said they were opposed.

Broken down by ethnic communities, 58 percent respondents identifying themselves as Hispanic supported the straight-out 20-week ban, 67 percent of those identifying themselves as Asian, he said.

Kaplan said poll sought to find the solid baseline for opinions on abortion rights without the gaming of questions that other pollsters use to push the results one way or the other.

“By a similar margin, 54 percent to 27 percent, North Carolina Republicans believe the GOP should work to end abortion in America,” he said.

“It was a virtual tie, 41 percent for and 39 percent against, when they were asked if federal law should outlaw all abortions,” he said. Gravis Insights is a non-partisan research firm. The poll were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by selected voting demographics and proprietary modeling.

Rep. Renee L. Ellmers (R.-N.C.)

Rep. Renee L. Ellmers (R.-N.C.)
In a Jan. 21 Facebook post, the congresswoman said: “To clear up any misinformation, I will be voting tomorrow to support H.R. 36 – The Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protect Act Resources bill. I have and will continue to be a strong defender of the prolife community.”The post not only distorted her moves against the bill, but also shifted her support from the unborn to the people fighting for the unborn—in effect announcing that she was not longer of the pro-life movement, but was now a sympathetic outsider.

Consistent with her new outsider posture, Ellmers dug in her high heels with aJan. 30 post on her official blog, when she dressed down the advocates for the unborn: “I am appalled by the abhorrent and childish behaviors from some of the leaders of the outside groups.”

Furthermore in the post, the congresswoman described herself as both “Pro-life and Compassionate,” as if she was balancing two competing ideals, rather than two unified goals.

The registered nurse told National Journal her opposition to the bill was rooted in her concern that young Americans supported abortion rights and that fighting to protect the unborn was bad for the image of the Republican Party.

In addition to pulling her name as a co-sponsor, Ellmers worked with the House Republican leadership on ways to delay the vote of the pain-capable bill or otherwise weaken its provision that would have encouraged women to report their rapist to law enforcement.

The talks between House GOP leadership and Ellmers, who is married to surgeon Brent R. Ellmers, struck at the heart of the rebooted pro-life movement tactics. On one track, the pro-life movement is focusing the current system as the willing partner of men abusing underage females. The other track, sets asides arguments about the humanity or viability of unborn children, and instead deals with the pain inflicted on the unborn.

In the end, the bill was pulled from the House calendar by leadership—just as hundreds of thousands of advocates for the unborn were mustering for the annual March for Life.

Professor John H. Aldrich, the Pfizer-Pratt professor of political science athttp://www.duke.edu/, said while people can blame Ellmers for killing the pain-capable bill, the fault lies with the House GOP leadership.

“They could easily have crafted a perfectly strong and acceptable bill that she would have been happy to support and that the pro-life activists would have been happy to tolerate, maybe even genuinely support,” he said. “But, the leadership simply blew it and didn’t pay attention to the full set of strong pro-life GOP members of Congress in their own chamber.”

The aftershocks from pulling of H.R. 36 are still being felt

Capitol Hill conservatives and supporters of restoring legal protections to the unborn are still trying to understand the depths of the betrayal by Ellmers and the House GOP leadership. In the days before the March for Life, as the conspiracy to tank the bill was playing out in the offices just below dome, leadership liaisons to conservatives bragged to them that the passage of the pain-capable bill would prove that the Republican leadership will deliver legislation for the pro-life community.

Tami Fitzgerald, the executive director of the North Carolina Values Coalition, a IRS registered 501 (c) (4) organization, said she got wind of the Ellmers flip on the Friday before the March for Life.

Fitzgerald said she called Ellmers’ office to verify rumors that the congresswoman was working against the pain-capable bill, and while she was not put through to the congresswoman, but she was directed to Chief of Staff Albert G. Lytton.

In that conversation, Lytton confirmed that Ellmers was working against H. R. 36. “I got the impression that the staff was surprised but was going ahead with it.”

The pro-life leader said she was disgusted that Ellmers chose to play the abortion issue for political advantage rather that sticking to principles. “I have always believed that good policy is good politics.”

Professor Andrew J. Taylor, the chairman of the political science department at the School of Public and International Affairs at North Carolina State University, said Ellmers was elected in 2010 as part of a greater national conservative wave, but necessarily as an opponent of abortion.

Taylor said Ellmers scored points as a defender of tobacco against new regulations from the Obama administration and an opponent of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In fact in that year, Ellmers was the only Republican to take a seat from an incumbent Democrat in North Carolina.

The professor said he was not convinced that Ellmers will be hurt by her behavior surrounding the pain-capable bill.

“My sense is that 2016 will be about something else. They only way it could hurt her in in an inter-party dispute, which would encourage a primary challenge,” he said.

The fact is nobody knows what the campaign of 2016 will be about, he said.

Aldrich said the abortion issue is a very important in North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District, located in the central part of the state and includes Fort Bragg, the home of the airborne and special forces.

“More to the point, it is one that her side of the activist extremes care a lot about, very deeply,” he said. “Her district is likely a bit more conservative than the state as a whole, and her activist core base certainly is.”

Ellmers taking on the pro-life movement in Washington comes as the local movement in North Carolina is working to close abortion clinics and restrict the procedure.

“She made it pretty close to her defining issue when she first entered politics, her background as nurse and Catholic made this a genuine concern of hers,” he said. “The prospect of getting criticized from those she was virtually a part of must be difficult for her.”

 

In a Jan. 21 Facebook post, the congresswoman said: “To clear up any misinformation, I will be voting tomorrow to support H.R. 36 – The Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protect Act Resources bill. I have and will continue to be a strong defender of the prolife community.”

The post not only distorted her moves against the bill, but also shifted her support from the unborn to the people fighting for the unborn—in effect announcing that she was not longer of the pro-life movement, but was now a sympathetic outsider.

Consistent with her new outsider posture, Ellmers dug in her high heels with aJan. 30 post on her official blog, when she dressed down the advocates for the unborn: “I am appalled by the abhorrent and childish behaviors from some of the leaders of the outside groups.”

Furthermore in the post, the congresswoman described herself as both “Pro-life and Compassionate,” as if she was balancing two competing ideals, rather than two unified goals.

The registered nurse told National Journal her opposition to the bill was rooted in her concern that young Americans supported abortion rights and that fighting to protect the unborn was bad for the image of the Republican Party.

In addition to pulling her name as a co-sponsor, Ellmers worked with the House Republican leadership on ways to delay the vote of the pain-capable bill or otherwise weaken its provision that would have encouraged women to report their rapist to law enforcement.

The talks between House GOP leadership and Ellmers, who is married to surgeon Brent R. Ellmers, struck at the heart of the rebooted pro-life movement tactics. On one track, the pro-life movement is focusing the current system as the willing partner of men abusing underage females. The other track, sets asides arguments about the humanity or viability of unborn children, and instead deals with the pain inflicted on the unborn.

In the end, the bill was pulled from the House calendar by leadership—just as hundreds of thousands of advocates for the unborn were mustering for the annual March for Life.

Professor John H. Aldrich, the Pfizer-Pratt professor of political science athttp://www.duke.edu/, said while people can blame Ellmers for killing the pain-capable bill, the fault lies with the House GOP leadership.

“They could easily have crafted a perfectly strong and acceptable bill that she would have been happy to support and that the pro-life activists would have been happy to tolerate, maybe even genuinely support,” he said. “But, the leadership simply blew it and didn’t pay attention to the full set of strong pro-life GOP members of Congress in their own chamber.”

The aftershocks from pulling of H.R. 36 are still being felt

Capitol Hill conservatives and supporters of restoring legal protections to the unborn are still trying to understand the depths of the betrayal by Ellmers and the House GOP leadership. In the days before the March for Life, as the conspiracy to tank the bill was playing out in the offices just below dome, leadership liaisons to conservatives bragged to them that the passage of the pain-capable bill would prove that the Republican leadership will deliver legislation for the pro-life community.

Tami Fitzgerald, the executive director of the North Carolina Values Coalition, a IRS registered 501 (c) (4) organization, said she got wind of the Ellmers flip on the Friday before the March for Life.

Fitzgerald said she called Ellmers’ office to verify rumors that the congresswoman was working against the pain-capable bill, and while she was not put through to the congresswoman, but she was directed to Chief of Staff Albert G. Lytton.

In that conversation, Lytton confirmed that Ellmers was working against H. R. 36. “I got the impression that the staff was surprised but was going ahead with it.”

The pro-life leader said she was disgusted that Ellmers chose to play the abortion issue for political advantage rather that sticking to principles. “I have always believed that good policy is good politics.”

Professor Andrew J. Taylor, the chairman of the political science department at the School of Public and International Affairs at North Carolina State University, said Ellmers was elected in 2010 as part of a greater national conservative wave, but necessarily as an opponent of abortion.

Taylor said Ellmers scored points as a defender of tobacco against new regulations from the Obama administration and an opponent of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In fact in that year, Ellmers was the only Republican to take a seat from an incumbent Democrat in North Carolina.

The professor said he was not convinced that Ellmers will be hurt by her behavior surrounding the pain-capable bill.

“My sense is that 2016 will be about something else. They only way it could hurt her in in an inter-party dispute, which would encourage a primary challenge,” he said.

The fact is nobody knows what the campaign of 2016 will be about, he said.

Aldrich said the abortion issue is a very important in North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District, located in the central part of the state and includes Fort Bragg, the home of the airborne and special forces.

“More to the point, it is one that her side of the activist extremes care a lot about, very deeply,” he said. “Her district is likely a bit more conservative than the state as a whole, and her activist core base certainly is.”

Ellmers taking on the pro-life movement in Washington comes as the local movement in North Carolina is working to close abortion clinics and restrict the procedure.

“She made it pretty close to her defining issue when she first entered politics, her background as nurse and Catholic made this a genuine concern of hers,” he said. “The prospect of getting criticized from those she was virtually a part of must be difficult for her.”