Category Archives: Polls

Former Florida Gov. John E. "Jeb" Bush (Courtesy)

Iowa poll: Bush leads crowded GOP field; Rice beats Clinton head-to-head 43% to 40%

The brother of the last Republican president leads the latest Townhall/Gravis poll of 388 Iowa Republican voters surveyed April 13 with Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker and Florida Sen. Marco A. Rubio trailing close behind.

Former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush is in front with 16 percent, but it is roughly where he was in the Feb. 12-13 iowa poll, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that couducted the poll. The poll of Republican voters carries at 3 percent margin of error.

“We are seeing the undecideds starting to drop since our last poll, people are starting to get behind a candidate,” he said. “This time four years and eight years ago debates already started, this time the debates won’t start until later in the summer.”

The debates have the potential to change the dynamics of the race for the GOP presidential nomination, Kaplan.

“It is very likely one of the candidates will implode in the debates, it’s also likely someone like Rick Perry or Huckabee will perform so well in the debates, that the media props that up and puts them in the first tier,” he said.

“We see Jeb Bush hold strong with Walker very close, whenever someone announces, they seem to take a few votes from Walker, Iowa will be a horserace until the end with someone coming from the outside and very likely winning,” he said.

Sen. Marco A. Rubio (R.-Fla.)

Sen. Marco A. Rubio (R.-Fla.) (Courtesy)

“In our February poll, Walker was at 24 percent, now he is at 13 percent,” Kaplan said. “At the same time, Rubio, who formally announced his candidacy the day of the poll, nearly doubled his support, going from 7 percent in February to 12 percent now.”

“If I was Jeb Bush, I would be happy with my position in the race right now,” he said. “He has the money and organization for the long-haul and his support is not fluctuating, it is steady on.”

Although the field is crowded, 17 percent of Iowa Republicans are undecided, which means there are still voters up for grabs, he said.

Republicans head-to-head against Clinton

Hillary R. Clinton

Hillary R. Clinton (Courtesy)

Gravis polled 1,259 registered Iowa voters pitting Republican candidates against the leading Democrat former secretary of state Hillary R. Clinton.

Former national security advisor and secretary of state Condoleezza Rice is the only GOP candidate to lead Clinton among the general election sample, 43 percent to 40 percent. Broken out by religion, Evangelical Protestants support Rice versus Clinton 67 percent to 17 percent, Catholics, 42 percent to 38 percent. Rice also leads Clinton among voters under 50 49 percent to 34 percent.

“Hillary performs very well, notice the Condoleeza Rice, she is not running,” Kaplan said. “However what this tells me is the electorate wants a super star like a Rice, someone with ideas and foreign policy credentials.”

Condoleeza Rice (Courtesy)

Condoleeza Rice (Courtesy)

Clinton leads Bush 43 percent to 40 percent with 17 percent undecided.Broken down by gender, Bush leads Clinton among men 42 percent to 37 percent with Clinton leading Bush among women 49 percent to 37 percent. Among voters below 50, Bush is ahead of Clinton 42 percent to 39 percent.

The former first lady is ahead of the Wisconsin governor by 46 percent to 42 percent with 13 percent undecided. Among women, Clinton leads Walker 51 percent to 38 percent, but Walker holds a lead over Clinton among men, 46 percent to 38 percent. Voters under 50 give the nod to Walker 44 percent to 41 percent.

Rubio is very close to Clinton head-to-head trailing 42 percent to 45 percent. Among Catholics, Rubio leads Clinton 47 percent to 41 percent and among men 48 percent to 39 percent. Clinton leads Rubio among women by a wide margin, 50 percent to 38 percent. With voters under 50, Rubio is ahead of Clinton 48 percent to 40 percent.

Note: Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,259 registered voters in Iowa regarding potential matchups [388 Republicans]. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3% [5% for the Republican Primary question]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polling method was done through IVR, with the raw results weighted by anticipated voting demographics. A full reporting of the crosstabulated results is available upon request.

Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?


What is your party affiliation?


Do you support or oppose the Tea Party movement?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Carly Fiorina and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Ben Carson and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Condoleezza Rice and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

Massachusetts residents oppose hosting the 2024 Olympics in Boston.

Bay State residents oppose Boston 2024 Olympics

In the April 9-10 Howie Carr/Gravis telephone survey of 2,182 Massachuesetts residents, 49 percent of those polled oppose hosting the 2024 Summer Olympics in Boston and 37 percent support the plan.

“We see that many people appreciate the importance of the Olympics, but are not willing to endure the cost and hassles associated with the Olympics bid and actual putting on of the games,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based political consulting firm that conducted the poll. The poll has a 2 percent margin of error.

Kaplan said the overwhelming support for a referendum on whether to use taxpayer money to bring the Olympics to Boston, 61 percent to 23 percent, is a further confirmation of opposition to the plan and the lack of trust the state’s resident have for their trust officials and politicians. “Then, if they get their referendum, 66 percent would vote against it compared to 18 percent for it.”

“Forty percent of respondents think Massachusetts would benefit from hosting the 2014 Summer Olympics compared to 46 opposed and 37 percent want the games to come to Boston compared to 49 percent opposed,” he said.

“They don’t think the juice is with the squeeze,” he said.

On his syndicated radio show, Howie Carr said he was thrilled that poll’s large sample size of residents captured the opinions of Bay Staters, who might not follow the news as closely as activists and would tend to be in favor of the games.

HowieCarrShowBanner

Carr said he doubted that the supporters of Boston’s 2024 Olympics bid could turn around a public that was so overwhelmingly against the bid. “This is bad, this really, really bad news for them.

Feargal O’Toole, a Boston-area Democratic digital consultant and owner of Data for Donkeys, said the opposition to the Boston 2024 Summer Olympics bid is strong.

“To start with, people in Massachusetts are smart enough to see that the Olympics is a bad deal for host cities,” he said. “Mix that with the patronizing campaign from the sellers of the games – and you’re going to see opposition like this.”

In the poll pitting Clinton against Warren, Kaplan said it proves again that there is no groundswell for Warren. “There is no way Warren is running and no way she wins.”

Clinton’s 2-to-1 advantage over Warren in the senator’s adopted state is consistent with the former first lady’s strength across the country.

“The talk that Clinton is weakening or does not have a clear path to the Democratic nomination is nonsense,” he said. “First of all, who is going to beat her? She still has no real opponent. Second, Democratic leaders recognize that Clinton is the only candidate, who can pull anywhere close to the extreme turnout numbers in minority neighborhoods that was crucial for Obama.”

Notes: Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 2,182 individuals in Massachusetts regarding current issues. The poll has a margin of error of ± 2 percent. The total may not round to 100 percent because of rounding. The polls were conducted using IVR. A complete accounting of the demographic crosstabulations is available upon request.

Do you want Boston to host the Summer Olympics in 2024?

In your opinion, should there be a state-wide referendum on whether taxpayer money can be used to host the 2024 Summer Olympics in Boston?


If a referendum were held today on whether the state can use taxpayer dollars for the 2024 Summer Olympics, how would you vote?


In your opinion, would Massachusetts benefit from hosting the 2024 Olympic Games?


If you had to choose between Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren to be the next president, whom would you choose?

Current Calgary Elbow Polling

The poll was conducted by an automatic telephone survey between April 2 – 6, 2015

Executive Summary
Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm that conducts political polls in the USA and Canada, conducted a random telephone survey of 445 likely voters in the constituency of Calgary Elbow.  Percentages may not total to 100% because of rounding. The results are weighted by anticipated voting demographics and has a margin of error of ±5%.

The results are as follows.

How likely is it that you will vote in the upcoming provincial general election?

As of today, how do you intend to vote in the upcoming provincial general election?

Is there a candidate you are leaning towards?

The following questions are for demographic purposes:
How old are you?

What is your gender?

Note: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by anticipated voting demographics. Gravis Marketing is a political consulting firm located in Florida.

This poll was commissioned by the Alberta Party. Gravis Marketing Press Release

Sen. R. Edward "Ted" Cruz (R.-Texas)

Nevada poll: Sandoval early favorite to succeed Reid; Cruz surges to lead pack with Walker

Less than a week after Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid announced his retirement, the March 27 Townhall/Gravis poll of 850 registered Nevada voters found that Republican Gov. Brian E. Sandoval has strong leads over possible Democratic opponents.

Sandoval is a very strong candidate and being of Mexican descent gives him inroads to the minority voters,” said political consultant Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that conducted the poll.

telephone surveys nevada Nevada Gov. Brian E. Sandoval (Courtesy)

The  poll surveyed 433 registered Republicans, 319 registered Democrats and 98 Independents on their preferences for the Senate race to succeed Reid and their presidential preferences, said Kaplan. The poll carries a 3 percent margin of error, 5 percent for Republican-only questions and 6 percent for Democratic-only questions.

The Nevada governor leads Democratic Rep. Dina Titus, 55 percent to 37 percent and leads former state attorney general Catherine Cortez Masto, 53 percent to 37 percent, he said. Reid endorsed Cortez Masto as his chosen successor. Her father was for many years the leader of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.

Masto’s successor Attorney General Adam P. Laxalt, the grandson of one of President Ronald W. Reagan’s “First Friend,” long-serving Nevada senator Paul D. Laxalt, trails Masto 44 percent to 39 percent, Kaplan said. Laxalt trails Titus 46 percent to 44 percent.

Laxalt is close against Titus and Masto, but in the first look at this Senate race, Sandoval is the one with real separation,” he said.

Kaplan said in the presidential preferences, former secretary of state Hillary R. Clinton continues to dominate her potential rivals for the 2016 Democratic nomination.

Clinton leads the Democratic field with 61 percent, compared to 15 percent for Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 7 percent for Independent Vermont Sen. Bernard Sanders, 3 percent for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., 3 percent for Albert A. Gore Jr., and 1 percent for former Maryland governor Martin J. O’Malley, he said.

“The former first lady is in uncharted waters in terms of her support,” he said. “Across the country, Clinton is polling at extremely high levels, in some places double her support in the same state in 2008.”

In the crowded Republican field, Texas Sen. R. Edward Cruz with 18 percent surged out of the crowd to join the twin leaders, Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker, 18 percent and former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, 16 percent, Kaplan said. Twenty percent of Nevada’s GOP voters are undecided.

“We were expecting to see a pop for Cruz,” he said. The Texas senator announced his official candidacy March 23.

Walker should be concerned about hitting a ceiling right now, while Bush is in good shape. Bush’s voters are not going anywhere and he has the money and organization to stick out a long campaign,” he said.

“Walker is fighting for the non-Bush vote and besides Cruz, he has to worry about Rubio, who is the next candidate we expect to pop.” Florida Sen. Marco A. Rubio garnered the support of 7 percent of Nevada Republicans.

Notes: Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of 850 registered voters in Nevada regarding potential matchups. The voter list sample includes 443 Republican Primary participants, 319 Democratic Primary participants, and the remainder are Independents/Other. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3% [5% for Republican Primary/6% for Democratic Primary]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls are weighted separately for each population in the question presented.

Note: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.  A full reporting of demographic characteristics and cross tabulations is available upon request.  Email us.  Prior Nevada Poll With Senator Reid

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

If the Nevada Republican Caucuses for President were held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson, whom would you vote for?

If the Nevada Democratic Caucuses for President was held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Adam Laxalt and Democrat Dina Titus, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Michael Roberson and Democrat Dina Titus, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Brian Sandoval and Democrat Dina Titus, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Dina Titus, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Adam Laxalt and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Michael Roberson and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Brian Sandoval and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Brian Sandoval and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

Who do you consider more honest and trustworthy Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton?

Should Congress pass legislation overriding the ability of states to legalize and regulate online gambling?

18% Yes

41% No

41% Unsure

Prior Nevada Poll Results

Jeb Bush (R)19%
Chris Christie (R)8%
Ted Cruz (R)6%
Mike Huckabee (R)6%
Bobby Jindal (R)1%
Rand Paul (R)3%
Rick Perry (R)6%
Marco Rubio (R)4%
Rick Santorum (R)4%
Scott Walker (R)27%
Undecided16%

 

Gravis Marketing Political Poll

S.C. poll: Cruz breaks out to challenge Walker, Bush; Graham at 9 percent in crowded GOP field

As the senior senator from South Carolina contemplates a 2016 run for the White House, the March 26-27, 2015 Townhall/Gravis poll of Palmetto State 1,371 voters, 899 registered Republicans and 472 registered Independents found he garners support of 9 percent against the crowded GOP field.

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham placed fourth, behind the two front runners, Sen. R. Edward “Ted” Cruz, 13 percent; former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, 16 percent and Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker, 17 percent, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that conducted the poll. The poll carries a 3 percent margin of error.

“We asked two questions, one with Graham in the race and one with Graham not in the race,” Kaplan said. “With Graham in the race, his 9 percent pulls from across the field, rather than hurting any one candidate.”

If the South Carolina Republican Primary for President was held today and he candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Lindsey Graham, whom would you vote for?

MarchSCwGraham

With Graham in the race, undecided voters stood at 18 percent and without Graham the undecided stood at 17 percent, he said.

“Just as in other states, where we have been polling, Bush-and-Walker-Walker-and-Bush has separated from the rest of the pack as the leaders,” Kaplan said. “We have been looking for a third candidate to break out and join Bush and Walker, and it could be Cruz. In South Carolina, Cruz polls at 11 percent with Graham out of the race.”

The Republican Primary question was posed twice.  The first response includes Lindsey Graham; the second does not.

If the South Carolina Republican Primary for President was held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson, whom would you vote for?

MarchSCwoGraham

Florida Sen. Marco A. Rubio could be the other candidate that breaks out to join the leader pack, he said. “In both polls, Rubio polls at 6 percent.”

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R.-S.C.)

Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R.-S.C.)

Gravis Insights a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random phone survey of 1,371 registered voters in South Carolina regarding potential matchups. The poll comprised 899 Republicans voters and 472 Independents and has a margin of error of ± 3%. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The political poll was conducted March 26, 2015 – March 27, 2015 results are weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

Note: the polls were conducted using the Gravis outbound dialer IVR software and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.  A complete reporting of demographics and cross tabulations are available upon request.  Please email us.

Gravis Insights is a division of Gravis Marketing Firm, a political consulting and market research firm located in Winter Springs, Florida.  Previous Gravis South Carolina Poll