Category Archives: Polls

Former Massachusetts governor W. Mitt Romney with his wife Ann during the 2012 presidential campaign. (Courtesy)

SC Poll: Romney leads among Palmetto State voters; Bush leads Romney-less field

The former governor of Massachusetts leads a large pack of potential Republican presidential nominees in the Jan. 21-22 Townhall/Gravis poll of 831 likely SC Presidential Republican Primary Voters.

W. Mitt Romney, who was the GOP nominee for president in 2012 against President Barack Obama was the selection of 20 percent of the respondents, followed by former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush with 16 percent and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker with 9 percent, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based company that conducted the poll.

Here are the results for the rest of the field:

  • Michael Huckabee                              8 percent
  • Sen. R. Edward “Ted” Cruz                8 percent
  • Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul               7 percent
  • Sen. Marco A. Rubio                           7 percent
  • Gov. Christopher J. Christie               5 percent
  • Richard “Rick” Santorum                   4 percent
  • Richard “Rick” Perry                           4 percent

President1 SC Poll: Romney leads among Palmetto State voters; Bush leads Romney less field

In the 2008 GOP South Carolina primary, Huckabee finished a strong second with 30 percent behind the eventual nominee Nevada Sen. John S. McCain III. In that contest, Romney finished fourth with 15 percent of the vote, he said.

In the 2012 GOP South Carolina primary, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich won with 40 percent of the vote, outpacing Romney’s 28 percent and Santorum’s 17 percent, Kaplan said. “Although Gingrich won, Romney was the eventual nominee–as that race was constantly changing leaders, but Romney was consistently near the top as his rivals rose and fell.”

“Despite having 10 choices, the 12 percent of the people we surveyed told us they were undecided,” Kaplan said. The poll carries a margin of error of 3 percent. The total may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. The poll is of likely primary voters, the telephone survey was conducted using automated IVR telephone calls.

“One complication is the on-again-off-again nature of the Romney campaign,” he said. “There is a strong chance that he will not run, especially given the nature of his wife’s health, so we ran a second poll without Romney.”

In the sine Romney poll, Bush leads with 18 percent, while Huckabee and Walker jump to 11 percent, he said.

“We also see the undecideds jump to 17 percent, so that really tells us that while Bush’s support is committed to him with or without Romney in the race, there is a lot of movement,” he said.

This chart shows the results without Romney: 

President2 SC Poll: Romney leads among Palmetto State voters; Bush leads Romney less field

 

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

 Here are charts with other results from the poll:

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Approval of Obama2 SC Poll: Romney leads among Palmetto State voters; Bush leads Romney less field

The following questions are for demographic purposes.
Are you Hispanic?

Hispanic2 SC Poll: Romney leads among Palmetto State voters; Bush leads Romney less field What race do you identify yourself as?

Race2 SC Poll: Romney leads among Palmetto State voters; Bush leads Romney less fieldWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Religious affiliation2 SC Poll: Romney leads among Palmetto State voters; Bush leads Romney less fieldWhat is the highest level of education you have completed?

Education Category2 SC Poll: Romney leads among Palmetto State voters; Bush leads Romney less fieldHow old are you?

Age group2 SC Poll: Romney leads among Palmetto State voters; Bush leads Romney less fieldWhat is your gender?

Gender2 SC Poll: Romney leads among Palmetto State voters; Bush leads Romney less fieldNote: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by historical voting demographics.

Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) with former Massachusetts governor Deval L. Patrick (Courtesy)

Clinton scalps Warren in Howie Carr/Gravis poll of Bay State Dems

The former first lady and secretary of state leads Massachusetts Democrat Sen. Elizabeth Warren in a Howie Carr/Gravis poll of 358 registered Bay State Democrats conducted Jan. 19-21.

Hillary R. Clinton is the choice of 46 percent of respondents compared to 22 percent picking Warren, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based pollster that executed the poll. The poll carries a 4 percent margin of error.

Thirty-two percent said they were undecided.

“Warren might be popular with liberals in Harvard Square, Newton or the media, but among regular Democrats across the state Clinton commands deep loyalty, so far,” said Kaplan.

10920087 805970529485330 2895959735305013776 o Clinton scalps Warren in Howie Carr/Gravis poll of Bay State Dems

Hillary R. Clinton

“Clinton beat President Barack Obama in the 2008 Massachusetts Democratic Primary, 56 to 40 percent,” he said. “She has a long history with Democratic voters in Massachusetts and other states that cannot be ignored.”

Kaplan said the poll does not mean that Warren is finished. “It is still early. Warren’s weak showing could be a function of her focus on establishing herself as a national figure, while neglecting the folks back home.”

Governor1

Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governor’s race

by Neil W. McCabe

The Democratic attorney general leads Republican candidates for Kentucky governor in the Jan. 5-6 poll of 608 registered voters.

Attorney General John W. “Jack” Conway beats both leading Republicans Agriculture Commissioner James R. Comer, former envoy to Latvia Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey, real estate developer Hal Heiner and businessman Matt Bevin, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based pollster that conducted the poll. The poll carries a 4 percent margin of error.

10906291 10152919180766131 4357943006247823511 n Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors race

Kentucky Attorney General John W. “Jack” Conway spoke at Jan. 13 Labor Unity Breakfast in Louisville, Kentucky. Conway, a Democrat, leads GOP candidates in the race for governor. (Courtesy of Conway campaign)

The Kentucky Democratic and Republican primaries are held May 19 and the general election is Nov. 3.

Watch this video by James R. Comer:

“In the tightest scenario, pitted against Comer, Conway leads 40 percent to 37 percent,” Kaplan said.

“Conway leads Bailey 43 percent to 30 percent; he leads Heiner 43 percent to 34 percent and Bevin 44 percent to 36 percent,” he said.

If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Cathy Bailey and Democrat Jack Conway, who would you vote for?

Governor3 Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors race

If Conway wins, it is a personal vindication for a candidate, who has survived an ethics scandal and the 2010 loss in the his run for the Senate against Republican Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul.

Kentucky is a true hybrid state that at the same time is southern and midwestern, Kaplan said.

If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Hal Heiner and Democrat Jack Conway, who would you vote for?

Governor2 Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors race

“The Democratic Party never went away as it did in states from the Deep South,” he said. “Ten to 11 percent of the Kentucky workforce is union, compare that with North Carolina or Georgia that are between 3 and 4 percent.”

President Barack Obama has an approval rating in our poll of 35 percent, but the state has a Democratic governor now and could easily elect another one, he said.

The GOP primary is a very interesting field, he said. “Bevin disappointed conservatives by losing 60 to 36 percent to Sen. Mitch McConnell.” McConnell is the Senate Majority Leader.

Bevin, who spent $5 million against McConnell, is seen as having blown his chance to beat McConnell, but it is another thing for conservatives to switch to Bailey,” he said. “Bailey is close to Rand Paul, but she is really a part of the state’s GOP establishment.

In the general election, McConnell beat Secretary of State Allison Lundergan Grimes 56 percent to 41 percent.

In her own race to keep her job, Grimes is in a virtual tie, 47 percent to 46 percent, with Stephen Knipper, an information technology professional and executive for Catholic Health Initiatives, Kaplan said.

See other charts here: 

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Approval of Obama Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors race

If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Matt Bevin and Democrat Jack Conway, who would you vote for?

Governor4 Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors raceIf the election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were Republican Steve Knipper and Democrat Allison Lundergan Grimes, who would you vote for?

Secretary of State Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors raceIf the election for Attorney General were held today and the candidates were Republican Luke Morgan and Democrat Andy Beshear, who would you vote for?

Attorney General Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors raceIf the election for Treasurer were held today and the candidates were Republican Allison Ball and Democrat Rick Nelson, who would you vote for?

Treasurer Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors raceIf the election for State Auditor were held today and the candidates were Republican John Kemper and Democrat Adam Edelen, who would you vote for?

Auditor Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors raceIf the election for State Agriculture Commissioner were held today and the candidates were Republican Ryan Quarles and Democrat Jean-Marie Lawson, who would you vote for?

State Agriculture Commissioner Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors raceThe following questions are for demographic purposes.

What is your political party affiliation?

Party Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors race Are you Hispanic?

Hispanic Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors raceWhat race do you identify yourself as?

Race Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors raceWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Religious affiliation Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors raceWhat is the highest level of education you have completed?

Education Category Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors raceHow old are you?

Age group Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors raceWhat is your gender?

Gender Kentucky poll: Democrat Conway leads GOP contenders in governors raceNote: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by historical voting demographics.

2015-01-07 Iowa GOP poll

Iowa poll: Romney leads nascent Iowa field with 21%, Bush at 14%, Walker 10%

by Neil W. McCabe

The 2012 Republican nominee for president holds a leads a broad field of GOP potential contenders in the Townhall/Gravis poll conducted Jan. 5-7 among 404 registered Republican voters queried. Note: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by historical voting demographics.

Former Massachusetts governor W. Mitt Romney has never left the hearts and minds of Republican voters and he will hold the dominant position in the race for the 2016 presidential nomination until the other candidates spin up their own campaigns, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, a Florida-based pollster and call center that executed the poll. The poll carries an error rate of 3 percent.

“Romney’s name recognition and the loyalty Republicans have for their last nominee give him a opportunity that no one else has,” Kaplan said. “The question is whether he will use or let the chance pass to others.”

Gravis Marketing provides campaign website design, hosted predictive dialer software, and political direct mail services.  Gravis has a live call center located in Winter Springs, Florida and has been in business since 2010.

After two years of dampening expectations, Romney—spooked by Bush’s momentum—is now working to the phones in order to put the band together for one more national tour.

While Romney decides what to do, the GOP race revolves around former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, the choice of 14 percent, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker, polling at 10 percent.

Bush, the son of President George H. W. Bush and a younger brother of President George W. Bush, went from a stealth candidate over Thanksgiving to today’s full-blown exploratory candidate.

Although he is portrayed as a white bread patrician in the press, Bush ran Florida for eight years as a red-meat-movement-conservative cutting taxes, holding teachers accountable and expanding gun rights. A Catholic convert, Bush is married to the daughter of a Mexican migrant worker and speaks Spanish without the effort his brother W. exerted.

Of course, the defining moment of Bush’s tenure was his extreme effort in the losing battle to save the life of Terry Schiavo.

Walker, the governor of Iowa’s northeast border, signaled his intention to run with the New Year announcements of his presidential campaign team: Rick Wiley, campaign manager; Nicole Tieman, press secretary; Colleen Coyle, finance director, as well as, other staffers: Stephan Thompson, Jonathan Wetzel and Keith Gilkes.

Wiley, a managing partner of the Mercury political consultancy, led the 2012 Romney volunteer and ground game effort with a $180 million budget. In the 2008 cycle, he was a senior staffer in Rudolph W. Giuliani’s White House run.

If Walker, who was the 2012 Human Events Conservative of the Year, does launch his 2016 run, it will be his fifth election in eight years. In 2008, he was elected Milwaukee County Executive, 57 percent of the vote, followed by governor in 2010, 52 percent of the vote, a Democratic-led recall election, 53 percent of the vote, and re-election for governor in 2014, 52 percent of the vote.

Former Arkansas governor Michael D. Huckabee garnered the support of 9 percent.

Huckabee won the 2008 Iowa caucuses with 34 percent of the vote, and who finished second behind Arizona’s Sen. John S. McCain III in the year’s race for the White House nomination. In that campaign, Romney was in second place until he withdrew to endorse McCain.

Kentucky’s Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul was the choice of 8 percent and Texas’ Sen. R. Edward “Ted” Cruz (R.-Texas) was the choice of 7 percent.

There is no doubt that Paul is gearing up for a run and the question is whether he can energize the people and pocketbooks that supported his father former Texas congressman Dr. Ronald E. Paul.

Paul the Elder finished third in the 2012 Iowa caucuses, but at the GOP national convention, 23 of the state’s 28 delegates voted for Paul.

In a campaign cycle full of dynastic names, the Paul’s father-to-son succession is the wild card.

In some ways, the 2012 Paul the Elder campaign was a hostage situation, as party mandarins watched to see if the congressman would endorse Romney and keep his supporters from turning the convention into Chicago 1968 spectacle, which he did, in exchange for his son getting a fair shot at the big time.

Paul the Younger, himself an accomplished eye surgeon, in his own right, has emerged from his father’s shadow. With major foreign policy address at the Heritage Foundation and a high-profile visits Israel and Detroit, the senator has created his own persona as a thoughtful and provocative conservative.

If there was a surprise in the poll it was the poor showing of New Jersey Gov. Christopher J. Christie, who was the choice of 5 percent.

Christie is coming off a very successful 2014 campaign cycle, when he was the leader of the Republican Governors Association, he won 31 out of 50 gubernatorial races—picking up two corner offices.

Much can change in the one year between now and the Jan. 16, 2016 Iowa Caucuses, in previous cycles many a now-forgotten politician was dubbed the next president in the early goings, only to have a mistress, a foul business deal or horrific debate performance bring everything to an all-stop.

Other numbers and charts from the poll:

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Approval of Obama1 Iowa poll: Romney leads nascent Iowa field with 21%, Bush at 14%, Walker 10%

The following questions are for demographic purposes.
Are you Hispanic?

Hispanic1 Iowa poll: Romney leads nascent Iowa field with 21%, Bush at 14%, Walker 10%

Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Religious affiliation1 Iowa poll: Romney leads nascent Iowa field with 21%, Bush at 14%, Walker 10%What is the highest level of education you have completed?

Education Category1 Iowa poll: Romney leads nascent Iowa field with 21%, Bush at 14%, Walker 10%How old are you?

Age group1 Iowa poll: Romney leads nascent Iowa field with 21%, Bush at 14%, Walker 10%

2016 Montana Polling

Results for November 24 – 25, 2014

Executive Summary

Gravis Marketing conducted a random survey of 836 registered voters in Montana regarding potential statewide and presidential candidates. The poll carries a margin of error of 3%. The total may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Approval of Obama3 2016  Montana PollingIf the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Tim Fox or Democrat Steve Bullock, whom would you vote for?

Governor Fox or Bullock 2016  Montana PollingIf the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Ryan Zinke or Democrat Steve Bullock, whom would you vote for?

Governor Zinke or Bullock 2016  Montana PollingIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President Bush or Clinton 2016  Montana PollingIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President Paul or Clinton 2016  Montana PollingIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President Ryan or Clinton 2016  Montana PollingIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Nikki Haley and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President Haley or Clinton 2016  Montana PollingIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President Cruz or Clinton 2016  Montana PollingThe following questions are for demographic purposes.
What is your political party affiliation?

Party3 2016  Montana PollingAre you Hispanic?

Hispanic3 2016  Montana PollingWhat race do you identify yourself as?

Race3 2016  Montana PollingWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Religious affiliation4 2016  Montana PollingWhat is the highest level of education you have completed?

Education Category 2016  Montana PollingHow old are you?

Age group3 2016  Montana PollingWhat is your gender?

Gender3 2016  Montana PollingNote: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by historical voting demographics.