Category Archives: polling-and-market-research

Florida State House: Scott Sturgill Leads Bob Cortes In Contested GOP Primary

Gravis Marketing Public Opinion Poll and Survey

Executive Poll Summary

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of 514 Florida House District 30 voters via automated telephone call.  The poll carries a margin of error of  4%.  The political poll was conducted on behalf of the Scott Sturgill campaign.  The poll includes Republican primary voters, who have voted in either the 2010 or 2012 GOP Primary. The primary will determine who will face incumbent Democrat, Karen Castor-Dentel. Regarding a primary match-up between County officials Sturgill and Cortes for the House seat uncertainty among voters appeared to carry the day. When asked, “If the election for State House District 30 Republican Primary were held today, would you vote for Republican Scott Sturgill or Republican Bob Cortes?”  Respondents overwhelmingly stated that they were unsure about the match-up between these candidates with 72% indicating they were unsure for whom they would vote. Among voters who indicated a preference, 19% stated they would vote for Sturgill while only 9% stated they would vote for Cortes. This uncertainty continued when respondents were polled on each candidate’s favorability. When questioned, “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Cortes?” respondents expressed 86% uncertainty regarding the candidate with 8% expressing a favorable opinion and 7% indicating an unfavorable opinion. When questioned, “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Sturgill?” respondents expressed 85% uncertainty regarding the candidate with 7% indicating a favorable opinion and 7% indicating the candidate’s lack of favorability.   “Bob Cortes entered the race in January 2013 while Sturgill entered the race at the end of April 2013 said Doug Kaplan, President of Gravis Marketing. Cotes had the advantage of party and local leader support, but Sturgill has fired back with the majority of his money raised being from local sources. Sturgill has outperformed Cortes in each reporting period with the exception of October 2013, he said”   When examining these results among Hispanic voters polled, Sturgill displayed a 14.8% favorability with 59.3% indicating uncertainty; whereas, Cortes only enjoyed a 7.6% favorability rating with 55.6% of this demographic indicating uncertainty. Lastly, poll respondents were asked, “Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?” 85% expressed disapproval, 11% indicating approval and 4% indicating uncertainty.    Poll Results: http://www.scribd.com/doc/217642239/Florida-GOP-Primary-State-House-Primary

Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark Kirk

Telephone Survey Shows Bruce Rauner Ahead Of Pat Quinn

Illinois 150x150 Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark Kirk

Human Events and Gravis Marketing conducted a random telephone poll  by automated calls to landlines 806 registered Illinois voters regarding current events, including potential gubernatorial and senate candidates between March 21 and March 22. The telephone survey carries a margin of error of ± 3%.

In the wake of his victory in the Republican gubernatorial primary, Bruce Rauner currently holds a 43% to 35% advantage over sitting Governor Pat Quinn with 22% reporting uncertainty on the metric of candidate preference.

Respondents were also asked in the public opinion poll, “Do you approve or disapprove of Democrat Pat Quinn?” Based on these results Governor Quinn’s current approval ratings across all party affiliations rests at 33.1%. Independents provided the lowest approval numbers at 19.0%. Within his own party, a small majority of Democrats (56.2%) approved of the job Quinn was doing as Governor.  Regarding approval of candidate Bruce Rauner, 29.1% of respondents from all parties approved of him as a candidate with only 49.3% of Republicans indicating approval. Rauner’s approval ratings carry considerable uncertainty with 25.2% of Independents and 34.3% of Republicans expressing uncertainty.

Will First Lady Michelle Obama Run? download 2 150x150 Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark Kirk

Respondents were asked “If the 2016 election for U.S. Senate or held today, And the candidates are senator Mark Kirk and First Lady Michelle Obama  who would you vote for?” Across all party identifiers, 47% stated a preference for Mark Kirk while 42% expressed a preference for First Lady, Michelle Obama.

President Obama’s Home State Approval

President Obama’s approval ratings in his home state were mixed in this latest telephone survey with only 46% approving of the work he is doing. Based on the poll results, the President appears to lack solid approval from Independents where 55.1% indicated they disapproved of his job performance.

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s Job Performance?obama approval Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark KirkDo you approve or disapprove of Democrat Pat Quinn?quinn approval Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark KirkDo you approve or disapprove of Republican Bruce Rauner?rauner approval Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark Kirk

If the election for Governor were held today, whom would you vote for?governor2 Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark KirkIf the 2016 election for U.S. Senate were held today, and the candidates were Senator Mark Kirk and First Lady Michelle Obama, whom would you vote for?senate1 Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark KirkThe following questions are for demographic purposes.

What is your political party affiliation?party1 Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark Kirk

Are you Hispanic?hispanic1 Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark Kirk

What race do you identify yourself as?race1 Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark Kirk

Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?religious affiliation1 Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark Kirk

What is the highest level of education have you completed?education category1 Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark Kirk

How old are you?age group1 Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark Kirk

What is your gender?gender1 Illinois Telephone Survey: Rauner Ahead and First Lady Michelle Obama Vs Senator Mark Kirk

Gravis Marketing is a non-partisan market research and advertising firm. This poll was conducted using automated phone calls, using a random sample of registered voters, who have voted in prior elections.  The telephone surveys are conducted by Gravis Marketing and Human Events. 

Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion Poll

Wisconsin Phone Survey Scott Walker ahead by 5%

Human Events and Gravis Marketing conducted a random phone survey by automated calls to landlines of 988 registered Wisconsin voters regarding current events and the upcoming election. The telephone survey was conducted 3-17-2014. The opinion poll carries a margin of error of ± 4%.

Obama’s approval rating down in latest opinion poll

Across all party identifications, President Obama’s approval rating was 40% with 11% expressing uncertainly. When viewed on party identification, the President’s disapproval rating was nearly 97% among Republicans, 47.1% among Independents and 10.2% among Democrats.

Voters were polled “If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Scott Walker, or Democrat Mary Burke?” Among all voters, 49% indicated a preference for Scott Walker (R) while only 44% said they would vote for Mary Burke (D). When looking at these data on the level of party identification, the election for Governor appears to be following partisan lines with 82.5% of Democrats voters supporting Burke and 91.1% of Republican voters supporting Walker. Independents were split between Burke and Walker 37.7% and 47.4% respectively.

 

Regarding other Federal government policy issues, when asked in the phone survey, “Should the federal government regulate video games that use firearm scenarios? 47% of voters indicated No while 29% indicated video games should be regulated in this manner with 24% expressing uncertainty. When asked, “Should the federal government approve firearm transactions before they are completed?” 42% of voters taking the public opinion poll indicated there should not be regulation while 36% expressed that firearm transactions should be approved by the Federal government. 22% of those polled said they were unsure as to the Federal government role in approving firearm transactions. When asked, “Should mothers serving in the military be ordered into combat zones? 39% indicated No with 33% indicating Yes, and 37% stating they were unsure. When asked, “Would you support amnesty for illegal aliens? 60% of voters expressed opposition to amnesty for illegal aliens while 21% indicated support for an amnesty while only 19% expressed uncertainty.

When breaking these results down on the variable of party identification, the responses to this question became muddied with over just over 70% of Democrats opposing an amnesty or expressing uncertainty and 85% of independents indicating opposition or uncertainty. Republican voters largely opposed an amnesty at 84.7%.

The Gravis telephone surveys are conducted using automated calls contacting registered voter lists provided by the State of Wisconsin.

 

 Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

obama job Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion Poll If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Scott Walker, or Democrat Mary Burke? governor Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion Poll Should the federal government regulate video games that use firearm scenarios? feds firearms in video games Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion Poll Should the federal government approve firearm transactions before they are completed? feds firearms transactions Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion PollShould mothers serving in the military be ordered into combat zones? mothers combat zone Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion PollWould you support amnesty for illegal aliens? illegal aliens Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion Poll

The following questions are for demographic purposes.

What is your political party affiliation? party Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion PollAre you Hispanic? hispanic Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion PollWhat race do you identify yourself as? race Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion PollWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation? religious affiliation Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion PollWhat is the highest level of education you have completed? education category Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion PollHow old are you? age group Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion PollWhat is your gender? gender Phone Survey Shows Scott Walker Ahead In WI Opinion Poll Note: the polls were conducted using hosted IVR software and technology and the results were weighted according to historical voting demographics. 

Gravis is a political advertising agency, working with political consulting firms and campaigns.

 

Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

Telephone Survey Shows Good News For Lindsey Graham and Jeb Bush

Human Events and Gravis Marketing conducted a random telephone survey of 735 registered South Carolina voters regarding current events, including potential presidential and senate candidates between March 6 and March 7 2014. The poll was conducted by automated telephone interviews on landline telephone numbers. The poll carries a margin of error of 4%. A previous poll was conducted in on the same subject by Gravis Marketing in South Carolina in late 2013.

 

Among potential Republican presidential nominees, Jeb Bush holds a slight advantage among Republican voters at 24% in the latest telephone survey, followed by Mike Huckabee at 20%. All candidates are close, with no clear front-runner having emerged. When compared to the previous poll conducted in the state Chris Christie has dropped favor among all voters since the November 2013 poll. The remaining members of the field such as Rubio, Cruz and Paul continue to lose ground to Bush.

 

Mike Huckabee has remained in lock step with Bush among all voters in the telephone survey keeping his rival close only trailing by 2- percentage points.

Lastly, it appears from these results that the Tea Party has lost some traction among those polled. 19% of all voters polled in South Carolina indicated that they were undecided as to whom they would support for the Republic presidential nomination. When voters were asked, “Would you support a “Tea Party” challenger to Senator Graham?” have shifted further away from an affinity for a tea Party challenger with 39% stating they would in November 2013 to 32%

 

Sen. Lindsey Graham has gained considerable ground on Jim DeMint surpassing him in the polls among all voters by a 2-percentage point margin. This advantage comes in the wake of the Senator overcoming an 11% advantage held by DeMint in a previous poll conducted in November 2013. Respondents are about evenly split between Jim DeMint to Senator Lindsey Graham (46% to 43% among Republican voters and 44% to 42% among all voters). Sen Graham also holds a 50% margin over Lee Bright.

 

The telephone survey also found widespread disapproval of Obamacare and increasing the debt limit.

 

Q1: If the election for Republican presidential primary were held today, whom would you vote for: Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum or Scott Walker?

president new Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

 

presidential Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

Q2: If the Republican primary were held today for US Senate, whom would you vote for: Lindsey Graham or Jim DeMint?

graham or demint new Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

graham or demint Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

Q3: If the Republican primary were held today for US Senate, whom would you vote for: Lindsey Graham, Lee Bright, Richard Cash, Nancy Mace or Bill Connor?

senate new Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Pollsenate Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

Q4: Would you support a “Tea Party” challenger to Senator Graham?

tea party new Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

tea party Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

Q5: Do you support drug testing for welfare benefits, including food stamps?

drug test new Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Polldrug test Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll Q6: Should Senator Graham vote to defund Obamacare?

graham obamacare new Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

graham obamacare Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

 Q7: Should Senator Graham vote to raise the federal debt limit?

graham debt limit new Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

graham debt limit Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

Note: the polls were conducted using automated IVR software, Gravis used current voter lists provided by the state of South Carolina to conduct the telephone survey.   Prior Human Events/ Gravis Marketing poll

GravisMarketing   100x100 Telephone Survey Latest SC Political Poll

 

 

Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Texas counties map 150x150 Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Human Events-Gravis Marketing Texas Poll

Human Events-Gravis Marketing, conducted a random survey of 729 likely republican primary voters in  Texas regarding Republican Steve Stockman and Republican John Cornyn between 2/10/14 and 2/12/14.  The poll carries a margin of error of 3.6%. The telephone poll was conducted using automated phone calls to landlines and live operators contacting cellphone only households.

Cornyn or Stockman Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

The Telephone poll centered on voters’ approval of Stockman and Cornyn and surveyed voters on candidate preference if the election were held today.  John Cornyn, the Senate Minority Whip who has held his seat since 2002 has been cast by GOP challenger Congressman Steve Stockman as a beltway insider and will likely try to frame his challenge to the seat as a referendum on Washington politics.

Douglas Kaplan of Gravis Marketing states, “Congressman Stockman is much closer than expected. Cornyn is under 50% with a significant amount still undecided, which is dangerous territory for an incumbent. The poll was conducted before Cornyn’s recent cloture vote on raising the debt limit, which could hurt him among conservative primary voters.”

Among all registered voters when asked “Do you approve or disapprove of Republican Steve Stockman?”, 55% indicated they were unsure while 28% approved and 18% disapproved.  Further, when asked “Do you approve or disapprove of John Cornyn?”, 49% indicated they approved, 26% disapproved and 24% were unsure.

Lastly, when asked, “If the election for U.S. Senate Primary were held today, would you vote for Republican Steve Stockman or Republican John Cornyn?”, Cornyn holds a 15-point lead (43% to 28%) over Stockman with 29% of voters expressing uncertainty over their choice. The uncertain voters at this stage in the contest could indicate that Stockman’s entry into race on December 9, 2013 has inserted uncertainty into the minds of Cornyn supporters or those who may have abstained from voting.

Examining these data on party identification and ideology metrics, voters surveyed about their approval of Stockman showed a modest majority of uncertainty among Independents (54.9%) and Republicans (54.2%), while only 32.7% of identified Republicans indicated they approved of this candidate. For Cornyn, voters appeared to be more salient in their preferences with uncertainty at 23.9% among Independents and 21.9% among Republicans; 41.4% of Independents expressed disapproval, while only 20.2% of Republicans disapproved.

Support for Cornyn rests primarily in Republicans at 57.9%, while 34.7% of Independents expressed approval.

The most significant data here rests among those surveyed who identified themselves as Very Conservative.  Among these voters, Cornyn holds a 12.3 percentage point advantage over Stockman (46.2% to 33.9%).  Interestingly, among this group of voters, the uncertainty gap was significant with 21.9% expressing uncertainty about Cornyn’s candidacy and 50.6% indicating the same for Stockman.

Do you approve or disapprove of Republican Steve Stockman?

Approve Stockman Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Do you approve or disapprove of John Cornyn?

Approve Cornyn Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

If the election for U.S. Senate Primary were held today, would you vote for Republican Steve Stockman or Republican John Cornyn?

Cornyn or Stockman Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

The following questions are for demographic purposes.

What is your political party affiliation?

Party Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Are you Hispanic?

Hispanic1 Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

What race do you identify yourself as?

Race1 Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Politically speaking, how would you describe you your political views?

Political Views Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Religious Affiliation Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

What is the highest level of education you have completed?

Education Category Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

How old are you?

Age Group1 Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

What is your Gender?

Gender1 Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Note: the telephone polls were conducted using automated telephone for landlines (692 responses) and live cell phone calls for cell phones (37 responses).  The results are weighed according to anticipated voting geographic and demographics characteristics.

Previous Gravis Marketing telephone Polls Florida Telephone Poll Florida Congressional Telephone Poll shows David Jolly winning his primary.