Category Archives: Polls

Current Indiana Polling

Executive Summary – Current Indiana Poll Results – May 2nd, 2016


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Winter Springs, Fla. – Even after a five-for-five shut out victory for Donald J. Trump in last Tuesday’s primaries, the pathway to 1,237 delegates is still not a 100 percent lock for the GOP Presidential Nomination. Indiana voters will have their opportunity to cast their votes in the upcoming Indiana state Republican Primary; and as of April 29th, Trump holds a double-digit lead over Ted Cruz according to a recent Gravis Marketing poll completed by phone surveys from April 28th to the 29th.

Gravis Marketing, one of the leading nonpartisan political research firms based in Winter Springs, Fla., conducted a random survey of 379 likely Republican Primary voters in Indiana. The Indiana poll results has a margin of error of ± 5% at a 95% confidence level. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using live telephone calls to landlines and mobile phone numbers of registered voters in Indiana accessible through the Gravis Marketing compiled registered voter database and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

The Gravis poll began by asking 379 Republican Primary voters whom 91 percent indicated they were likely to vote in the upcoming primary and six percent stating they have already voted, “Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 GOP Candidate would you vote for?” With three candidates remaining on the ballot, front runner Donald Trump received 44 percent support from Hoosier State Republican and Independent voters that took place in the survey. Texas Senator Ted Cruz received 27 percent of the vote while John Kasich, the Governor of Ohio received the support of 9 percent of those surveyed. At the conclusion of data collection, 19 percent indicated they were still ‘uncertain’ as to which GOP candidate they’d select.

Heading into Indiana’s Presidential Primary, Donald Trump holds 996 GOP delegates, with 517 still up for grabs. Indiana’s primary For Republicans, of those 57 delegates, 27 are a-large, awarded to the candidate who wins more votes statewide. Twenty-seven are awarded to the person who wins in each of the state’s congressional districts. Three are “party” candidates – Republican party officials. The delegates are pledged to their candidate for only the first ballot at the GOP convention this summer.

Unlike many other professional pollsters, Gravis Marketing’s polling surveys are always customized to receive the most accurate data for each voting demographic. The inclusion of political phone calls, web-based panels, and direct telephone calls to landlines and cell phone users allows Gravis Marketing, who has quickly become one of the leading political direct mail firms in the United States; to gather accurate data in their surveys.

All questions and responses captured during the Indiana Republican Voters poll, along with demographic information of those polled are listed below for easy review.

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How likely are you to vote in the Indiana Presidential Primaries?
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What is your party affiliation?
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What is your political ideology?
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What race do you identify yourself as?
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Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
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What is the highest level of education have you completed?
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How old are you?
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What is your gender?
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RI and CT GOP Primary Poll, Trump Leads, with Kasich in Second


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Executive Summary

Winter Springs, Fla. – Coming off a big victory in New York last Tuesday, GOP front runner Donald J. Trump appears to be making a positive impact on likely Republican voters and seems to be on his way to victory in Connecticut and Rhode Island tomorrow. One of the most accurate non-partisan political research firms from Winter Springs, Fla – Gravis Marketing, conducted a random survey of 964 likely Republican Primary voters in Connecticut and 566 likely Republican Primary voters in Rhode Island.  The polls were conducted from April 23rd through the 24th and have margins of error of ± 3%/± 4% at a 95% confidence level.  The total may not round to 100% because of rounding.  The phone surveys were completed via automated telephone calls (IVR technology) and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

The Gravis Polls asked likely Republican primary voters that were listed in the Registered Voter Database in Connecticut and Rhode Island; “Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 GOP Candidate would you vote for?” 54 percent of the 964 likely GOP voters indicated they plan on voting for Donald J. Trump, while 27 percent stated they’d vote for John Kasich. At the time of the polling, 10 percent remained unsure while Texas Senator Ted Cruz netted a paltry 9 percent support in the Connecticut Gravis Marketing poll.

In Rhode Island, when the 566 likely voters were asked the same question, Trump’s margin of victory expanded to 58 percent support, with Kasich trailing with 21 percent, 11 percent still unsure and Cruz with only 10 percent. 91 percent of the voters surveyed in this poll indicated they were Very Likely or Likely to vote in the upcoming Tuesday primaries.

Gravis Marketing’s founder and President Doug Kaplan, who recently launched their political campaign website division offered his analysis of the recent polls in Connecticut and Rhode Island. “It appeared that Donald Trump lost some momentum between Wisconsin and New York. Even though he won his primary home state, he only captured 82 percent of the delegates in arguably his strongest voting base among the five major NYC boroughs. This week’s poll in Connecticut and Rhode Island indicate that he is doing exceptionally well in these two states and should win big.”

“Our polling in Delaware last week was among the most accurate in the US, as we correctly pointed out a flaw in the Cruz campaign’s voter support. Our demographic polling indicated that Cruz had a huge problem in the Northeastern US months ago – especially with Catholic voters. He is likely to finish third behind Kasich in many of Tuesday’s primary states. After this week’s primaries, all eyes should be focused on Indiana, as it’s expected that it will have similar results as Wisconsin. However, Trump’s numbers are improving in that state and the dynamics of the primary voters is much different in Indiana than in Wisconsin. It’s also very likely that Mr. Trump will do very well in California.”

Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 GOP Candidate would you vote for?

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The following questions are for demographic purposes (mid-range of the two states):

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Presidential Primaries?

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What is your political ideology?

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What race do you identify yourself as?

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Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

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What is the highest level of education have you completed?

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How old are you?

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What is your gender?
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Delaware Polling


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Gravis MarketingWinter Springs, Fla. – With more than half of the US States having already participating in their Presidential Primary or Caucuses, the final stretch run for potential GOP nominees Donald Trump, John Kasich and Ted Cruz to collect valuable delegates has begun. After winning New York with a 60 percent voter support, Donald Trump is counting on his East Coast momentum to continue into the State of Delaware. Gravis Marketing, one of the leading non-partisan political consulting firms based in Winter Springs, Fla. conducted a random survey of 1,038 likely Republican Primary voters and 1,026 likely Democratic Primary voters that are likely to participate in the State’s upcoming primary vote.

The poll that utilized political robocalls (IVR Technology) was completed from April 17th through the 18th.  The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3.0% for Republicans and ± 3.1% for Democrats, all at the 95% confidence level, with the results weighted by relevant voting demographics.

The 1,038 likely Republican primary voters that were listed in a State of Delaware registered voter database were the first to be sampled in regards to their thoughts on the upcoming primary. When voters were asked, Assuming you had to vote now, which 2016 GOP candidate would you vote for,” New York business man Donald Trump received 55 percent support, while John Kasich received 18 percent followed by Ted Cruz who collected 15 percent support. As of April 18th, 12 percent of likely Republican primary voters remain ‘unsure’ as to whom they will choose.

The poll then shifted to asking Democrats about their choice as to who will become the 2016 Democrat Presidential nominee; Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. When asked if they had to vote today, which candidate they will choose, Clinton received the lion’s share of support, capturing 45 percent of the likely vote. Bernie Sanders received 38 percent with 17 percent of the 1,026 Democrats stating they were currently ‘unsure’ as to which of the two candidates would receive their vote.

The focus of the poll completed by political campaign website designer Gravis Marketing focused on the upcoming primary for a US congressional seat. The democrat voters were asked, “If the Delaware Democratic Primary for the US House was held today and the candidates were Sean Barney, Lisa Rochester, and Bryan Townsend, who would you vote for?” Bryan Townsend received 19 percent support, followed by Sean Barney with 12 percent and Lisa Rochester with eight percent. The majority of the Democrats polled, 61 percent stated they were currently ‘unsure’ of their choice.

The Gravis Marketing poll concluded by asking participants of their political ideology and other demographic questions that typically can impact voting habits. The results of each question are posted below for your review.

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Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 Democrat Candidate would you vote for?

Democrats

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If the Delaware Democratic Primary for the US House was held today and the candidates were Sean Barney, Lisa Rochester, and Bryan Townsend, who would you vote for?

Democrats

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The following questions are for demographic purposes:

How likely are you to vote in the Delaware Presidential Primaries?

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What is your political ideology?

Republicans

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Democrats

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What race do you identify yourself as?

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Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

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What is the highest level of education have you completed?

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How old are you?

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What is your gender?

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New York Primary Polling – April 13th, 2016

TRUMP POISED FOR NEW YORK PRIMARY VICTORY

Winter Springs, Fla. – The second largest batch of voting delegates are up for grabs this upcoming week and it appears that New York native Donald Trump will capture the lion’s share of Republican delegates based on a recent poll completed by political campaign website developer Gravis Marketing. On the Democrat side, former New York Senator Hillary Clinton is struggling to pull away from her opponent Bernie Sanders but maintains a small five percentage point lead heading into April 19th‘s crucial primary.

The non-partisan marketing research firm that specializes in political campaign tools based in Winter Springs, Fla., completed a random survey of 481 likely Republican Primary voters and 635 likely Democratic Primary voters on April 13th. The poll has a margin of error ± 4.5% for Republicans and ± 3.9% for Democrats, all at the 95% confidence level.  The polling of New York primary voters were conducted using automated telephone calls (IVR technology), with the results weighted by relevant voting demographics.

The Gravis Marketing poll began by asking both party primary potential participants on their likelihood of participating in the upcoming New York primary. According to the poll, 73 percent of Republicans are ‘Very Likely’ to participate, while 71 percent of Democrat voters indicated the same reply. In the same question, two percent of Republicans indicated they had already taken advantage of early voting, while three percent of Democrats have cast their votes prior to the April 5th Gravis Poll.

On the Republican side, the 481 Republican Primary voters were asked, ‘Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 GOP candidate would you vote for’? 57 percent of New York voters indicated they’d choose Donald J. Trump as their choice to become the Republican nominee, while Ohio Governor John Kasich received 22 percent. Texas US Senator Ted Cruz gathered 20 percent of support from the voters sampled in the Gravis Marketing poll.

Meanwhile, during the same poll, the 635 likely Democrat Primary voters were also asked, ‘Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 Democrat candidate would you vote for?’ 53 percent of those polled chose Clinton while 47 percent indicated they are likely to cast their vote for the US Senator from nearby Vermont, Bernie Sanders.

Gravis Marketing’s President Doug Kaplan offered some analysis of the Gravis Poll in New York. “Ted Cruz has had a tremendous past few weeks, capturing +100 delegates over Trump; however, it appears that streak is going to come to a crashing end based on our New York Polling,” noted Kaplan. “The surprising result we saw from New York is not that Trump appears headed for a huge win in his original home state, but that Kasich seems to be headed for a second place finish over Cruz.”

“On the Democrat side of things, Bernie Sanders will just not go away. Although it is rather clear that Clinton’s support from Super Delegates will catapult her to the Democrat Party nomination, Sanders is still gaining momentum from voters and supporters. The question that needs to be asked clearly here is whether Sanders voters will passionately support Clinton if she is the Presidential nominee or flip ‘sides’ and support Donald Trump – who is connecting with non-traditional voters in a big way.”

Kaplan concluded; “The New York primary is typically the beginning of the home stretch for both parties. However, it’s not a winner take all state. I believe Trump is going to need to have a huge margin of victory and capture more than 60 percent of the delegates in order to have a ‘winning’ night. The strength of support from Trump is not shocking however the lack of support for Clinton in a state in which she was a former US Senator is what is surprising. It’s quite possible that Sanders could pull in some huge numbers to the polls come Tuesday; which could provide Republican’s with some ammunition for the general election.”

Infographics and Polling Demographics posted below for review and publication.

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California Democratic Primary Polling


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Winter Springs, Fla. – Coming off a big win in New York, Democrat Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is looking to secure the Presidential nomination when California voters decide on whom to award their large delegate share. However, the Golden State has multiple races and ballot initiatives to consider when voters take to the polls this upcoming November. Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan political research firm based in Winter Springs, Fla. recently conducted a random survey of 846 likely Democratic Primary voters and 2,088 voters overall to capture the pulse of the voting segment on both their choice for US President but also local state issues.

The poll which was completed by political campaign website developer Gravis Marketing April 7th through the 10th has a margin of error of ± 3.4% for Democrats and 2.1% for all respondents at the 95% confidence level. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls (IVR technology) and online responses, with the results weighted by relevant voting demographics.

The first question in the Gravis Marketing phone surveys asked the Democrat pollsters; “Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 Democrat Candidate would you vote for?” Twelve percent of all those polled indicated that they were currently unsure as to whether they’d vote for Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. The majority of those polled, 47 percent indicated support for Clinton while Sanders received 41 percent of the potential vote. However, with twelve percent still uncertain of their vote, the margin of error and the current gap of six points are well within striking for the Sanders campaign.

The likely voters were then asked, “If the election for US Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Kamala Harris and Democrat Loretta Sanchez, who would you vote for?” All 2,088 participants were asked this question, with 52 percent indicated they were unsure as to whom they would vote for between the two candidates. Kamala Harris received 29 percent of the potential vote while Loretta Sanchez netted 19 percent.

When asked about their likelihood of voting gin the California Presidential Primaries, a strong contingent of 84 percent of those asked indicated they were very likely to participate, 11 percent stated they were ‘Likely’ with only three percent stating they were ‘somewhat likely’. Two percent of the voters replied that they have already voted. The voters were also asked about their political ideology for demographic purposes. 39 percent stated they considered themselves ‘Moderate’, 20 percent stated they were ‘slightly conservative’, 19 percent were ‘slightly liberal’, 12 percent ‘very liberal’ and 10 percent selecting the ‘very conservative’ option.

The participants of this Gravis Marketing survey were listed in a State of California registered voter database.  The total of each question listed below may not equal or total up to 100% because of rounding.

Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 Democrat Candidate would you vote for?
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If the election for US Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Kamala Harris and Democrat Loretta Sanchez, who would you vote for? (all respondents)
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The following questions are for demographic purposes:
How likely are you to vote in the California Presidential Primaries?
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What is your political ideology?
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What race do you identify yourself as?
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Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
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What is the highest level of education have you completed?
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How old are you?
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What is your gender?
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