California Statewide Polling

July 28, 2014

Results for July 22 – 24, 2014

Executive Summary

Human Events and Gravis Marketing conducted a random survey of 580 registered voters in California regarding statewide candidates by automated calls to landline phone numbers 7/22/14 and ­­­­­7/24/14.  The poll carries a margin of error of  4%.  The results follow.

Among the contested races for State offices, California voters surveyed indicate that no clear leader has emerged outside of the Governor’s race that shows Jerry Brown (D) holding a substantial margin. In the long term, voters polled about the 2016 Presidential race expressed a preference for Hillary Clinton (D) over Rand Paul (R), however when asked about a Paul versus Elizabeth Warren (D) contest the advantage shifted to Pau.

Concerning the Gubernatorial election, voters were polled, “If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Neel Kashkari and Democrat Jerry Brown, whom would you vote for? Incumbent Governor Jerry Brown (D) holds a 17-point margin over challenger Neel Kashkari (R) with only 13% indicating uncertainty.

In the race for Secretary of State, voters were polled, “If the election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were Republican Pete Peterson and Democrat Alex Padilla, whom would you vote for?”  Pete Peterson (R) maintains a slight 3-point advantage over Alex Padilla (D) (37% to 34%) with a significant number of voters polled expressing uncertainty (28%)

For the Controller’s race, voters were polled, “If the election for Controller were held today and the candidates were Republican Ashley Swearengin and Democrat Betty Yee, whom would you vote for?” Betty Yee (D) and Ashely Swearengin (R) are currently even at 39% with 22% of voters polled expressing uncertainty.

Concerning the race for Insurance Commissioner, voters were polled, “If the election for Insurance Commissioner were held today and the candidates were Republican Ted Gaines and Democrat Dave Jones, whom would you vote for?” Ted Gaines (R) holds a 2-point advantage over Dave Jones (D) (34% to 32%) with uncertain voters occupying 34% of those polled.

Regarding the presidential election in 2016, voters were polled, “If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?”  49% stated they would vote for Hillary Clinton (D) while 40% expressed support for Rand Paul (R) with 11% expressing uncertainty.

 

As for the presidential election in 2016 with alternative candidate match ups, voters were polled “If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Elizabeth Warren, whom would you vote for?”  A potential race between Rand Paul (R) and Elizabeth Warren (D) resulted in Paul holding an 11-point margin over Warren (44% to 33%) with 23% expressing uncertainty.

 

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?
Approval of ObamaIf the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Neel Kashkari and Democrat Jerry Brown, whom would you vote for?
GovernorIf the election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were Republican Pete Peterson and Democrat Alex Padilla, whom would you vote for?
Secretary of StateIf the election for Controller were held today and the candidates were Republican Ashley Swearengin and Democrat Betty Yee, whom would you vote for?
ControllerIf the election for Insurance Commissioner were held today and the candidates were Republican Ted Gaines and Democrat Dave Jones, whom would you vote for?
Insurance CommissionerIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?
President, Paul or ClintonIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Elizabeth Warren, whom would you vote for?
President, Paul or WarrenHow likely are you to vote in the General Election on November 4 2014?
Likelihood of VotingThe following questions are for demographic purposes.

What is your political party affiliation?
PartyAre you Hispanic?
HispanicWhat race do you identify yourself as?
RaceWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Religious affiliationWhat is the highest level of education you have completed?
Education CategoryHow old are you?
Age groupWhat is your gender?
Gender
Note: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by historical voting demographics. The MOE is 4% with a 95% confidence level.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *