Current Iowa Poll of Likely Voters

October 23, 2014

Results for October 20 – 21, 2014

Executive Summary

Winter Springs, Fla. – Two apparent Republican victories for Iowa Senate and the Governor seat and a split-decision on potential Presidential match-ups for 2016 highlight a recent Human Events and Gravis Marketing political survey. The non-partisan research firm from Winter Springs, Fla. recently conducted a random survey of 964 likely voters in Iowa regarding statewide candidates and potential match-ups. The poll was completed by use of Gravis Marketing’s IVR Automated Phone Calls and carries a margin of error of plus or minus three percent.

Federal Political Recaps

The State of Iowa is often the hot-bed of any Federal campaign, however, recent survey’s about the job performance of President Barack Obama have indicated a potential shift on the balance of power in this critical kick-off state. When asked about the job performance of the President, 51 percent of the voters indicated they disapprove of his current job performance. 42 percent support the President’s job performance while seven percent were unsure.

The Iowa voters were then asked about potential match-ups for the 2016 Presidential election – pairing Democrat Hillary Clinton against two-potential Republican candidates; Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan. When comparing Ryan to Clinton, the Democratic candidate seems to hold a microscopic edge of one percentage point over Ryan – with 14 percent undecided between the two potential candidates. The battle between Clinton and Bush would be equally difficult to forecast at this time; with Bush currently holding less than one percent advantage over Clinton.

It should be noted that the largest majority of those polled in this survey, 37 percent align themselves as Democrats, 33 percent indicated they were independent voters and 30 percent align as Republican.

State of Iowa Political Recap

The focus of the Gravis Marketing / Human Events poll then shifted to races coming up during the November 4th, 2014 election. The voters were asked first, If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley, whom would you vote for? 49 percent stated they would vote for Republican Joni Ernst, 43 percent indicated support for Bruce Braley while eight percent are currently unsure as to whom they would vote for in the upcoming General Election.

The voters were then asked; “If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Jack Hatch, whom would you vote for?” In this case, the Republican candidate Terry Branstad appears on the way to victory – currently holding a 10 percent margin over Jack Hatch. However, the election between Republican Sam Clovis and Democrat Mike Fitzgerald for State Treasurer also appears to be settled with less than 10-days remaining, with the Democrat Fitzgerald currently holding a comfortable 13-point lead.

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Approval of ObamaIf the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley, whom would you vote for?

SenateIf the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Terry Branstad and Democrat Jack Hatch, whom would you vote for?

Governor If the election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were Republican Paul Pate and Democrat Brad Anderson, whom would you vote for?

Secretary of StateIf the election for Treasurer were held today and the candidates were Republican Sam Clovis and Democrat Mike Fitzgerald, whom would you vote for?

TreasurerIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President, Bush or ClintonIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President, Ryan or ClintonHow likely are you to vote in the General Election on November 4 2014?

Likelihood of VotingThe following questions are for demographic purposes.
What is your political party affiliation?

PartyAre you Hispanic?

HispanicWhat race do you identify yourself as?

RaceWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Religious affiliationWhat is the highest level of education you have completed?

Education CategoryHow old are you?

Age groupWhat is your gender?

GenderNote: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by historical voting demographics.

One thought on “Current Iowa Poll of Likely Voters

  1. Michael

    Do you also report the breakdown of independent votes and party crossover votes for Ernst and Braley? It looks to me that Ernst is leading the way with Independents, but I’m trying to guage by how much. Thanks!

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *