Current Montana Polling Results

October 2, 2014

Results for September 29 – 30, 2014

Executive Summary

montanaWinter Springs, Fla. – Strong support for Republican candidates along with varying opinions on current hot-button political topics highlight a recent Human Events and Gravis Marketing survey completed in the State of Montana. Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan research firm based on Winter Springs, Fla. recently conducted a random survey of 535 likely registered voters in Montana regarding statewide candidates and other potential match-ups. The poll which took place between September 29th – 30th was completed using Gravis Marketing IVR Technology and carries a margin of error of 4%.

Of the 535 likely registered voters that were surveyed, 36% stated they were Republican, 35% indicated they were ‘Independent’ voters while 29% align with the Democratic Party.

Federal Polling Recap

The first question asked to the likely registered voters in Montana inquired about their opinions of the job performance for President Barack Obama. An overwhelming majority of 57% of voters currently disapprove of the President’s job performance, 36% approve of his job performance and only 7% were unsure of their opinion.

Potential Match-Ups for President 2016

The scope of the Federal politics survey then shifted to capture the pulse of Montana voters in regards to potential match-ups in the upcoming 2016 General Election for the office of President of the United States. Democrat Hillary Clinton was matched-up against three leading potential Republican candidates including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky and former Vice-Presidential nominee Congressman Paul Ryan.

When asked to choose between Clinton or Bush, 45% of those surveyed would currently vote for the Former Gov of Florida, Jeb Bush while 36% indicated they would vote for Clinton. 19% of the likely voters were ‘unsure’ at this moment. When asked to choose between Clinton and Rand Paul, 46% selected Paul, 38% would cast a vote for Clinton and 16% were ‘unsure’. The largest gap between potential candidates was when voters were asked to choose between Congressman Paul Ryan and Clinton. 51% of those polled stated they would currently vote for Paul Ryan, 37% would support Clinton and 11% were ‘unsure’ at the time of the Gravis Marketing poll was completed.

The Gravis Poll then asked potential voters in Montana, “Are you comfortable with federal authorities bringing illegal aliens into Montana from the Mexican border?” 66 of those polled stated “no”, they are NOT comfortable with federal authorities bringing illegal aliens into Montana, 20% were “unsure” while 13% said “yes”.

The voters were then asked, “Given the choice, would you rather see Congress: 1) raise the minimum wage, 2) cut the payroll tax for all working Americans, or 3) increase tax credits for some low-income Americans.” 49% indicated they would prefer cutting the payroll tax for all working Americans, 36% would like to see a raise of the minimum wage, and 14% would support increasing tax credits for some low-income Americans.

State of Montana Political Recap

The Gravis Marketing Poll then shifted to State of Montana political match-ups for the upcoming November 2014 election. The voters were asked, “If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Steve Daines and Democrat Amanda Curtis, whom would you vote for?” 54% of the likely registered voters would support Republican Steve Daines,  41% of the segment would choose Democrat Amanda Curtis, while only 5% were ‘unsure’.

Finally, the voters were asked “If the election for Montana House seat were held today and the candidates were Republican Ryan Zinke and Democrat John Lewis, whom would you vote for?” 51% stated they would support Republican Ryan Zinke, 41% indicated support for Lewis and only 8% were ‘unsure’.

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Approval of ObamaIf the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Steve Daines and Democrat Amanda Curtis, whom would you vote for?

SenateIf the election for Montana House seat were held today and the candidates were Republican Ryan Zinke and Democrat John Lewis, whom would you vote for?

HouseIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President, Bush or ClintonIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President, Paul or ClintonIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President, Ryan or ClintonAre you comfortable with federal authorities bringing illegal aliens into Montana from the Mexican border?

Illegal AliensGiven the choice, would you rather see Congress: 1) raise the minimum wage, 2) cut the payroll tax for all working Americans, or 3) increase tax credits for some low-income Americans.

Congress OptionsHow likely are you to vote in the General Election on November 4 2014?

Likelihood of Voting The following questions are for demographic purposes.
What is your political party affiliation?

PartyAre you Hispanic?

HispanicWhat race do you identify yourself as?

RaceWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Religious affiliationWhat is the highest level of education you have completed?

Education CategoryHow old are you?

Age groupWhat is your gender?

GenderNote: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by historical voting demographics.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *