Current Montana Polling

October 26, 2014

Results for October 23 – 24, 2014

Executive Summary

Winter Springs, Fla. – Continued support for Conservative candidates in the traditional ‘red’ state of Montana highlight a recent Human Events and Gravis Marketing political survey. The non-partisan research firm from Winter Springs, Fla.; Gravis Marketing conducted a random survey of 604 likely voters in Montana regarding statewide candidates and other potential match-ups. The poll was completed using Gravis Marketing IVR Automated Phone Call technology and carries a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.

Federal Political Polling Recap

The Gravis Marketing / Human Events poll was kicked off by asking 604 likely voters in Montana about their opinions on the job performance of President Barack Obama. 56 percent of those polled currently believe the President’s job approval is non-satisfactory by indicating they disapprove of his job performance. 35 percent support the job approval of the President, while nine percent are currently unsure as to their opinion on this question.

The voters in Montana were then asked to select between three potential match-ups for the Presidential election in 2016. Representing the Democratic ticket is Hillary Clinton. She was paired up against, three leading potential Republican candidates Jeb Bush, Rand Paul and Paul Ryan.

When asked to choose between Bush and Clinton, the Republican candidate holds a five-point margin. Comparing Clinton to Rand Paul, the Senator from Kentucky Rand Paul currently has a nine-point advantage over the former Secretary of Defense Clinton. Finally, US Congressman Paul Ryan currently maintains a seven-point advantage over Clinton.

The poll also asked voters in Montana about current Federal hot topics including Illegal immigration and potential solutions to stimulate the economy. When asked, Are you comfortable with federal authorities bringing illegal aliens into Montana from the Mexican border, 63 percent stated ‘no’, 22 percent said ‘yes’ and 16 percent were unsure.

When asked; Given the choice, would you rather see Congress: 1) raise the minimum wage, 2) cut the payroll tax for all working Americans, or 3) increase tax credits for some low-income Americans, the results were as follows. 45 percent believe the best option would be to cut payroll taxes for all working Americans, 39 percent indicate support for raising the Federal Minimum wage, while 16 state that providing an increase to tax credits for some low-income Americans would be prudent.

State of Montana Political Recap

Both Republican Candidates, Steve Daines (Senate) and Ryan Zinke (House) appear to be on the way to a winning election on November 4th, 2014. Daines has a comfortable 53 to 39 percent margin lead over his opponent, Democrat Amanda Curtis while Zinke maintains a current 12-point margin over Democrat John Lewis.

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Approval of ObamaIf the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Steve Daines and Democrat Amanda Curtis, whom would you vote for?

SenateIf the election for Montana House seat were held today and the candidates were Republican Ryan Zinke and Democrat John Lewis, whom would you vote for?

House If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President, Bush or ClintonIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President, Paul or ClintonIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President, Ryan or ClintonAre you comfortable with federal authorities bringing illegal aliens into Montana from the Mexican border?

Illegal AliensGiven the choice, would you rather see Congress: 1) raise the minimum wage, 2) cut the payroll tax for all working Americans, or 3) increase tax credits for some low-income Americans.

Congress OptionsHow likely are you to vote in the General Election on November 4 2014?

Likelihood of Voting The following questions are for demographic purposes.
What is your political party affiliation?

PartyAre you Hispanic?

HispanicWhat race do you identify yourself as?

RaceWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Religious affiliation What is the highest level of education you have completed?

Education CategoryHow old are you?

Age groupWhat is your gender?

GenderNote: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by historical voting demographics.

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