Former Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton laughs in the Oval Office with Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. (center) and President Barack Obama. Clinton has the support of 49 percent of New Hampshire Democrats, compared to Biden's 5 percent. (Courtesy)

NH poll: Clinton maintains huge lead; Walker, Bush lead GOP pack; Ayotte in virtual tie with Hassan

March 21, 2015

The former first lady of Arkansas and the United States continues to dominate the Democratic field

Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker and former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush lead the pack of GOP contenders, according to a March 18-19 Howie Carr Show/Gravis insights Telephone Survey of Granite State voters.

Clinton garners historic levels of success heading into 2016

Hillary R. Clinton is the choice of 49 percent of the 427 Democrats polled, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based political consulting firm that conducted the poll. The Democratic poll has a 5 percent margin of error.

The poll validates the strength of Hillary Clinton’s candidacy with voters, he said.

“Our poll captured the mood of voters at the height of Clinton’s email controversy and it had no negative effect—if anything it helped Clinton,” Kaplan said.

“Secretary Clinton at this point is unprecedented–really, it is nothing we have seen before,” Kaplan said.

“At this stage in 2008, she was nowhere near these numbers, which makes it even more unlikely that Bay State Sen. Elizabeth Warren will jump in the race,” he said. “Clinton polled well nationally in 2008, but not in the early states. Today, we see Clinton with huge leads everywhere.”

Warren finished second in the poll with 20 percent, followed by Sen. Bernard “Bernie” Sanders (D.-Vt.) with 12 percent, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., 5 percent; former Virginia senator James H. Webb Jr., 2 percent and former Maryland governor Martin J. O’Malley, 2 percent.

GOP field very competitive

Former Florida governor John E. "Jeb" Bush sits with former New Hampshire governor John Sununu during at March visit to the Granite State. Sununu was White House chief of staff for Bush's father, President George H. W. Bush. (Courtesy)

Former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush sits with former New Hampshire governor John Sununu during at March visit to the Granite State. Sununu was White House chief of staff for Bush’s father, President George H. W. Bush. (Courtesy)

“The real race is on the Republican side,” he said. “Bush and Walker are very close, but we think Walker’s numbers are stalled at 20 percent.”

Kaplan said among the 683 Republicans polled, Walker was the choice of 19 percent versus Bush at 18 percent. The poll of Republicans carries a margin of error of 4 percent.

The undecided GOP voters make up 16 percent of the sample, he said.

Bush has money and organization that Walker is still building up, he said. “The question now is whether Walker can generate a second push now that the momentum from his announcement has hit a ceiling.”

Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott K. Walker (Courtesy)

Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott K. Walker (Courtesy)

The other question is whether Walker will pull support from other candidates as the Stop-Bush candidate, Kaplan said.

March NH GOP Poll

“We still think the Republican race has a long way to go,” he said.

“One of the reasons why the Republican race is so competitive is that there are so many strong candidates,” he said. “Now that Bush and Walker have emerged as leaders, in the next month we are looking for moves from either Rubio or Cruz that make it a three-way race.”

In head-to-head competitions, the former first lady performs very well against Republicans, he said.

Clinton leads Bush, 43 percent to 40 percent; leads Walker, 46 percent to 43 percent and leads Paul, 45 percent to 42 percent.

Ayotte in tough fight for reelection

New Hampshire Republican Kelly A. Ayotte with her husband Joseph Daley. (Courtesy)

New Hampshire Republican Kelly A. Ayotte with her husband Joseph Daley. (Courtesy)

In addition to the New Hampshire Presidential Primary, Sen. Kelly A. Ayotte (R.-N.H.) is up for reelection in 2016 and her leading potential opponent is Democratic Gov. Margaret Wood Hassan.

Ayotte was a Tea Party darling in 2010, especially after former Alaska governor Sarah Palin endorsed her in the GOP primary. It is fair to say that Ayotte is no longer the Tea Party darling—rather, she is firmly in the orbit of the GOP’s Capitol Hill leadership working against conservatives.

Head-to-head, Ayotte leads Hassan, 47 percent to 45 percent, with 8 percent undecided.

That result has got to have Ayotte concerned.

Notes:

The polls were conducted using IVR software and predictive dialing software weighted by historical voting demographics.  A complete accounting of the demographic crosstabs are available upon request.  Email us.

Gravis Insights, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random phone survey of potential Republican and Democratic Primary voters in New Hampshire. The poll included 683 respondents for the Republican Primary and 427 for the Democratic Primary. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4% for the Republican Primary and ± 5%. Results may not sum to 100% because of rounding. The weighting of the results was performed separately depending on whether the question was for all respondents, just Republicans, or just Democrats.Graphics
Approval of Obama

Republican Primary

Democratic Primary

President, Bush or Clinton

President, Walker or Clinton

President, Paul or Clinton

President, Christie or Clinton

Senate

This entry was posted in Polls on by .

Neil W. McCabe is a political director for Gravis Marketing and a McCabe is the political director of Gravis Marketing. Washington-based journalist McCabe is the Washington editor of Armed American Radio and a Townhall.com columnist. McCabe was a staff writer and photographer for The Pilot, Boston's Catholic paper, as well as the editor of The Alewife and The Somerville News, two free community papers in the Boston-area. He was a senior reporter at Human Events and the editor of HE's Guns & Patriots newsletter. A veteran of the Army Reserve, he deployed to Iraq as a combat historian.

One thought on “NH poll: Clinton maintains huge lead; Walker, Bush lead GOP pack; Ayotte in virtual tie with Hassan

  1. Pete Kent

    You buried and mischaracterized the lead: Clinton is performing only marginally better than the leading GOPers (a virtual tie with a 3% lead). You would think with her name recognition and massive support among Dems she would trounce Bush, Walker and Paul and she does not.

    This has to be very worrying for her.

    @petekent01 on Twitter.com

    Reply

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