Current New Mexico Polling

October 3, 2014

Results for September 27 – October 1, 2014

Executive Summary

Winter Springs, Fla. – Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm based in Winter Springs, Fla. recently conducted a random survey of 727-likely registered voters in New Mexico regarding current issues, potential match-ups in 2016 along with statewide political races for the upcoming November 2014 general election. The poll was completed using Gravis Marketing IVR Technology and carries a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percent.

Of the 727 individuals polled, 47 percent indicated they align with the Democratic party, 32 percent stated they consider themselves as Republican while 21 percent indicated they were Independent voters.

Federal Issues Results

The 727-likely voters in New Mexico were first asked about their opinions about the job performance of President Barack Obama. 46 percent of the 727 likely voters indicated they currently disapprove of the President’s job performance, 41 percent currently approve of his performance while 13 percent were ‘unsure’ at the time the poll was completed.

The New Mexico likely voters were then asked about potential match-ups for the 2016 Presidential election pairing likely Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton vs. two potential Republican candidates; Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

In the potential match-up between Clinton and Paul, 49 percent of voters in New Mexico would support the Democratic candidate Clinton, 36 percent would select Republican Rand Paul and 15 percent of those polled were ‘unsure’. When asked to compare Clinton vs. Bush, 50 percent chose to support Clinton, 36 percent indicated they would vote for Bush and 14 percent stated they were ‘unsure’.

The scope of the Gravis Marketing poll then shifted to Federal issues that have recently seen large-scale reporting. The first question asked New Mexico likely voters; “Are you comfortable with federal authorities bringing illegal aliens into New Mexico from the Mexican border?” 52 percent of those that live in a Mexico bordering state said ‘No’, 29 percent said ‘Yes’ and 19 percent were unsure about their opinion on this matter.

When asked; “Given the choice, would you rather see Congress: 1) raise the minimum wage, 2) cut the payroll tax for all working Americans, or 3) increase tax credits for some low-income Americans?” the results were much different than previous Gravis Marketing polls completed in other US States. In this case, 44 percent stated they would support a raise in the Federal minimum wage, 43 percent indicated they would prefer cutting payroll tax for all working Americans while 13 percent believe that increasing tax credits for some low-income Americans would be the best course of action.

Finally, the voters in New Mexico were asked; “With regard to the shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, do you think the police officer was justified or at fault?” 38 percent of those polled were ‘unsure’, 35 percent stated they felt the officer was Not Justified, and 27 percent of those living in New Mexico thought the police officer was justified in his actions.

State of New Mexico Polling Results

The Gravis Marketing poll then shifted to State of New Mexico issues and political battles that will be on the November 4th, 2014. “If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Allen Weh and Democrat Tom Udall, whom would you vote for?” 53 percent of the 727 likely voters in New Mexico stated they would support Democrat Tom Udall, 36 percent indicated they would vote for Allen Weh, while 11 percent were currently unsure.

The next question asked of New Mexico voters inquired; “If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Susana Martinez and Democrat Gary King, whom would you vote for?” 48 percent of the voters in New Mexico stated they would currently vote for Republican Susana Martinez, 44 percent indicated they would vote for Democrat Gary King, while at the time of this Gravis Marketing poll, only 8 percent said they were ‘unsure’.

Voters were then asked about the Secretary of State position in the question; “If the election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were Republican Dianna Duran and Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver, whom would you vote for?” 44 percent of those polled stated they would vote for Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver while 38 percent of the likely voters would support Republican Dianna Duran. 19 percent of the likely voters were ‘unsure’ as to whom they will support on November 4th, 2014.

Other questions asked in the Gravis Marketing poll included; “If the election for Attorney General were held today and the candidates were Republican Susan Riedel and Democrat Hector Balderas, whom would you vote for?” Democrat Hector Balderas currently holds a 52 percent to 37 percent margin over the Republican candidate. 11 percent are unsure.

Finally, “If the election for State Commissioner of Public Lands were held today and the candidates were Republican Aubrey Dunn Jr. and Democrat Ray Powell, whom would you vote for?” Democrat Ray Powell holds the majority at 43 percent, while 37 percent would support Aubrey Dunn Jr and 20 percent stated they were ‘unsure’.

How likely are you to vote in the General Election on November 4, 2014?

Likelihood of VotingDo approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Approval of ObamaIf the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Allen Weh and Democrat Tom Udall, whom would you vote for?

SenateIf the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Susana Martinez and Democrat Gary King, whom would you vote for?

Governor

If the election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were Republican Dianna Duran and Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver, whom would you vote for?

Secretary of StateIf the election for Attorney General were held today and the candidates were Republican Susan Riedel and Democrat Hector Balderas, whom would you vote for?

Attorney GeneralIf the election for State Commissioner of Public Lands were held today and the candidates were Republican Aubrey Dunn Jr. and Democrat Ray Powell, whom would you vote for?

Commissioner of Public LandsIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President, Paul or ClintonIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President, Bush or Clinton

Are you comfortable with federal authorities bringing illegal aliens into New Mexico from the Mexican border?

Illegal AliensGiven the choice, would you rather see Congress: 1) raise the minimum wage, 2) cut the payroll tax for all working Americans, or 3) increase tax credits for some low-income Americans.

Congress OptionsWith regard to the shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, do you think the police officer was justified or at fault?

FergusonThe following questions are for demographic purposes.

What is your political party affiliation?

PartyWhat race do you identify yourself as?

RaceWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Religious affiliationWhat is the highest level of education you have completed?

Education CategoryHow old are you?

Age groupWhat is your gender?

GenderNote: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and Internet surveys.

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