North Carolina Senate Race vs. Final Results – Gravis Marketing Hits within 1%

October 31, 2014

Gravis Marketing NC Poll Results for October 29 – October 30, 2014

Executive Summary

Winter Springs, Fla. – It’s often assumed that if a political poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent – it’s rather effective. However, what could be stated about polling that falls between one percentage point of the final results in the major State of North Carolina election for Senate? This is exactly the margin that was captured in a recent Gravis Marketing survey completed five days prior to the November 4th, 2014 mid-term election.

In a period of two days, using Gravis Marketing IVR Automated Telephone IVR technology, Gravis Marketing, a non-partisan political research firm based in Winter Springs, Fla. conducted a random survey of 1,006 likely voters regarding current events in the State of North Carolina. The poll carries a margin of error of 3 percent – however, as we’ll show you in the results, the Gravis poll was deadly accurate.

During our first question, we asked about the opinion that North Carolinian’s have about the current job performance of President Barack Obama. 55 percent of the 1,006 likely voters indicated that they currently disapprove of his job performance, 41 percent approve of the President’s job performance while only five percent were uncertain.

This led directly to the question that was top of mind, not only for North Carolina, but also directly impacted the balance of power for the US Senate. Gravis Marketing asked on October 30th, “If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Thom Tillis and Democrat Kay Hagan, whom would you vote for?” At the time of the poll, Gravis Marketing captured the following results.

  • 47 percent would vote for Republican Thom Tillas
  • 46 percent would vote for Democrat Kay Hagan

According to the NC State Board of Elections on November 6th, 2014, the final results were as follows:

  • 1,412,931 people voted for Republican Thom Tillas – which represented 48.87 percent of the electorate.
  • 1,364,694 people voted for Democrat Kay Hagan – which represented 47.20 of the electorate.

“It’s amazing how accurately we’ve fine-tuned our polling data,” noted Doug Kaplan, the founder of Gravis Marketing. “There were several political experts that indicated that ‘the polling was off in this years mid-term elections – however, when you look at the majority of the Gravis Marketing final polls completed, we actually hit the marks quite well. Our entire team has been fine-tuning our polling data, questions and techniques that captures an accurate portrayal of the voting segment. One percent off is not too shabby – and we were on the right side of the results as well.”

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Approval of ObamaIf the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Thom Tillis and Democrat Kay Hagan, whom would you vote for?

SenateIf the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Roy Cooper, whom would you vote for?

GovernorIf the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

President, Paul or Clinton If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Elizabeth Warren, whom would you vote for?

President, Paul or WarrenShould Congress pass legislation overriding the ability of states to legalize and regulate online gambling?

Congress GamblingHow likely are you to vote in the General Election on November 4, 2014?

Likelihood of VotingThe following questions are for demographic purposes.

What is your political party affiliation?

PartyAre you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?

HispanicWhat race do you identify yourself as?

RaceWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Religious affiliationWhat is the highest level of education you have completed?

Education CategoryHow old are you?

Age groupWhat is your gender?

GenderNote: the polls were conducted using automated telephone and the results weighed according to anticipated voting demographics.

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