Gravis Marketing Poll

Florida General Election Poll, Marijuana, and Trans Bathroom

May 21, 2016

State of Florida registered voters showing disapproval of Florida GOP political leaders and presumptive Presidential nominees according to recent Gravis Marketing survey.  

Winter Springs, Fla. – As the primary season begins to wrap up and the US General Election less than six months away, State of Florida voters appear dissatisfied with current state political leaders and the crop of potential presidential candidates according to a new Gravis Marketing poll. The non-partisan marketing research group from Winter Springs, Fla completed a random predictive dialer survey from May 17th till May 18th that randomly asked 2,542 registered voters about their thoughts on State of Florida political issues and National candidates for President of The United States.

The political robocalls survey has a margin of error of ± 2% and was completed at a 95% confidence level. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls and weighted by anticipated voting demographics. The survey is of registered voters that were randomly selected from the Florida registered voter database.

The Gravis poll began by asking 2,542 registered voters in Florida, of which 37 percent indicating they were registered Democrat, 35 percent Republican and 28 percent Independent voters about their opinion on current US President Barack Obama and his job performance. Those surveyed in Florida were split down the middle, with 46 percent stating they disapprove of his job performance and the same percentage approving of his job performance. Eight percent of those surveyed were unsure of their opinion.

Due to the fact that the survey was completed in Florida, Gravis Marketing then inquired about the voter opinion of the job performance of current Florida Senator Marco Rubio. A large majority of voters, 56 percent in fact, stated that they disapprove of his performance as a United States Senator representing the State of Florida. 24 percent of those asked were unsure of their opinion while only 20 percent support the statement that they approve of his job performance as a US Senator.  The same voters showed displeasure with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, as 53 percent of those asked have an unfavorable opinion of him, 28 percent have a favorable opinion and 19 percent were unsure.

The poll then shifted to inquiring about the two presumptive nominees for President of the United States; Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton. When asked; ‘do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (the two individuals)’ Florida voters strongly have an unfavorable opinion of both potential candidates. Donald Trump’s numbers indicated that 54 percent of Florida registered voters currently have an unfavorable opinion, 38 percent having a favorable opinion and eight percent unsure. For Mrs. Clinton, 52 percent stated they have an unfavorable opinion, 40 percent have a favorable opinion and the same eight percent indicated they were unsure.

When asked, ‘if you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who would you vote’ – the 2,542 voters currently favor Mrs. Clinton by four percentage points. 46 percent stated they would vote for Clinton, 42 percent would support Donald Trump and 12 percent of those asked is currently undecided.

The survey continued to gauge the opinion of registered Florida voters by asking them their thoughts on current National and State of Florida issues that may impact their opinions of potential nominees for all elected offices come November. The 2016 ballot in the State of Florida will include a constitutional amendment to vote on medical marijuana, a “for” the measure would legalize medical marijuana for individuals with debilitating medical conditions as determined by a licensed state physician. While a vote “against” the measure would prevent the legalization of medical marijuana. The Gravis survey asked all voters that participated in this poll; ‘If you were to vote today, would you vote for or against this constitutional amendment?’ 69 percent of those asked indicated that they would vote for the amendment, 23 percent stated they would vote against the amendment while eight percent were unsure.

The transgender debate was also a hot topic in the Gravis Marketing survey. When asked, ‘would you say you favor or oppose laws that require transgender individuals to use bathrooms that correspond to their gender at birth rather than their gender identity’, 32 percent would strongly favor such a proposed law, 25 percent strongly oppose, 14 percent are somewhat favorable, 13 percent somewhat oppose and 16 percent indicated that they were unsure. A final question about supporting legislation that would require transgender individuals to use locker rooms that correspond to their gender at birth rather than their gender identity had nearly identical results.

Gravis Marketing President Doug Kaplan offered the following analysis of the recent Florida polling. “Florida is going to be a huge battleground state for this years Presidential election and this state is a must win for the GOP if they have any hope of regaining the White House. In recent weeks, Trump has done a good job of gathering his base while Clinton is still in a hotly contested battle with Bernie Sanders – which is rapidly dividing the Democrat party. If she is able to take the nomination, she’ll have to work hard to win over some of those Sanders supporters to maintain her lead in Florida.”

Kaplan continued, “The polling numbers that should concern the GOP is the lack of support of Marco Rubio. His 56 percent unfavorable rating as a Senator should raise red flags to the Trump campaign if they are considering adding Marco Rubio as their Vice Presidential nominee in order to win Florida. Rubio was definitely damaged by his Presidential run. These polls show that we are not convinced that he would help Trump as VP nor that he would necessarily win the primary for governor against other potential GOP nominees.”

“Another surprise in this poll shows the rapid changing of the voting segments opinion on medical marijuana,” concluded Kaplan. “One year ago when we asked a similar question, the state constitution measure was in danger of failing, as less than 60 percent of those polled would vote for it. Today, it appears that this ballot initiative is fairly on it’s way of passing. It’s amazing to see how much the public sentiment  has changed in the last 8 years. I think the key to winning Florida will be whether Trump can increase his GOP party support by picking a strong VP candidate, but more importantly – whether he has a way to draw in the majority of those 12 percent of undecided voters; most of whom are likely Independents.”

The results for each poll as well as demographic information of those who participated in this survey are listed below for review.

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?
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Do approve or disapprove of Senator Marco Rubio’s job performance?
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Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump?
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Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton?
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Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeb Bush?
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The 2016 ballot in the State of Florida will include a constitutional amendment to vote on medical marijuana, a “for” the measure would legalize medical marijuana for individuals with debilitating medical conditions as determined by a licensed state physician. While a vote “against” the measure would prevent the legalization of medical marijuana. If you were to vote today, would you vote for or against this constitutional amendment?
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Would you say you favor or oppose laws that require transgender individuals to use bathrooms that correspond to their gender at birth rather than their gender identity?
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Would you say you favor or oppose laws that require transgender individuals to use locker rooms that correspond to their gender at birth rather than their gender identity?
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If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who would you vote for?
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The following questions are for demographic purposes:
What is your party affiliation?
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What is your political ideology?
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Do you consider yourself a member of the Tea Party?
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What race do you identify yourself as?
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Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
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What is the highest level of education have you completed?
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How old are you?
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What is your gender?
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