Florida State House: Scott Sturgill Leads Bob Cortes In Contested GOP Primary

April 11, 2014

Gravis Marketing Public Opinion Poll and Survey

Executive Poll Summary

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of 514 Florida House District 30 voters via automated telephone call.  The poll carries a margin of error of  4%.  The political poll was conducted on behalf of the Scott Sturgill campaign.  The poll includes Republican primary voters, who have voted in either the 2010 or 2012 GOP Primary. The primary will determine who will face incumbent Democrat, Karen Castor-Dentel. Regarding a primary match-up between County officials Sturgill and Cortes for the House seat uncertainty among voters appeared to carry the day. When asked, “If the election for State House District 30 Republican Primary were held today, would you vote for Republican Scott Sturgill or Republican Bob Cortes?”  Respondents overwhelmingly stated that they were unsure about the match-up between these candidates with 72% indicating they were unsure for whom they would vote. Among voters who indicated a preference, 19% stated they would vote for Sturgill while only 9% stated they would vote for Cortes. This uncertainty continued when respondents were polled on each candidate’s favorability. When questioned, “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bob Cortes?” respondents expressed 86% uncertainty regarding the candidate with 8% expressing a favorable opinion and 7% indicating an unfavorable opinion. When questioned, “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Sturgill?” respondents expressed 85% uncertainty regarding the candidate with 7% indicating a favorable opinion and 7% indicating the candidate’s lack of favorability.   “Bob Cortes entered the race in January 2013 while Sturgill entered the race at the end of April 2013 said Doug Kaplan, President of Gravis Marketing. Cotes had the advantage of party and local leader support, but Sturgill has fired back with the majority of his money raised being from local sources. Sturgill has outperformed Cortes in each reporting period with the exception of October 2013, he said”   When examining these results among Hispanic voters polled, Sturgill displayed a 14.8% favorability with 59.3% indicating uncertainty; whereas, Cortes only enjoyed a 7.6% favorability rating with 55.6% of this demographic indicating uncertainty. Lastly, poll respondents were asked, “Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?” 85% expressed disapproval, 11% indicating approval and 4% indicating uncertainty.    Poll Results: http://www.scribd.com/doc/217642239/Florida-GOP-Primary-State-House-Primary

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