Former Florida Gov. John E. "Jeb" Bush (Courtesy)

2016 Iowa poll: Bush leads crowded GOP field; Rice beats Clinton head-to-head 43% to 40%

April 21, 2015

2016 Iowa Poll Bush and Walker Close

The brother of the last Republican president leads the latest Townhall/Gravis 2016 Iowa poll of 388 Iowa Republican voters surveyed April 13 with Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker and Florida Sen. Marco A. Rubio trailing close behind.

Former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush is in front with 16 percent, but it is roughly where he was in the Feb. 12-13 Iowa poll, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based political consulting firm that conducted the poll. The poll of Republican voters carries at 5 percent margin of error.

“We are seeing the undecideds starting to drop since our last poll, people are starting to get behind a candidate,” he said. “This time four years and eight years ago debates already started, this time the debates won’t start until later in the summer.”

The debates have the potential to change the dynamics of the race for the GOP presidential nomination, Kaplan.

“It is very likely one of the candidates will implode in the debates, it’s also likely someone like Rick Perry or Huckabee will perform so well in the debates, that the media props that up and puts them in the first tier,” he said.

“We see Jeb Bush hold strong with Walker very close, whenever someone announces, they seem to take a few votes from Walker, Iowa will be a horse race until the end with someone coming from the outside and very likely winning,” he said.

Sen. Marco A. Rubio (R.-Fla.)

Sen. Marco A. Rubio (R.-Fla.) (Courtesy)

“In our February telephone survey, Walker was at 24 percent, now he is at 13 percent,” Kaplan said. “At the same time, Rubio, who formally announced his candidacy the day of the poll, nearly doubled his support, going from 7 percent in February to 12 percent now.”

“If I was Jeb Bush, I would be happy with my position in the race right now,” he said. “He has the money and organization for the long-haul and his support is not fluctuating, it is steady on.”

Republicans head-to-head against Clinton

Hillary R. Clinton

Hillary R. Clinton (Courtesy)

Gravis polled 1,259 registered Iowa voters pitting Republican candidates against the leading Democrat former secretary of state Hillary R. Clinton.

Former national security advisor and secretary of state Condoleezza Rice is the only GOP candidate to lead Clinton among the general election sample, 43 percent to 40 percent. Broken out by religion, Evangelical Protestants support Rice versus Clinton 67 percent to 17 percent, Catholics, 42 percent to 38 percent. Rice also leads Clinton among voters under 50 49 percent to 34 percent.

“Hillary performs very well, notice the Condoleeza Rice, she is not running,” Kaplan said. “However what this tells me is the electorate wants a superstar like a Rice, someone with ideas and foreign policy credentials.”

Condoleeza Rice (Courtesy)

Condoleeza Rice (Courtesy)

Clinton leads Bush 43 percent to 40 percent with 17 percent undecided.Broken down by gender, Bush leads Clinton among men 42 percent to 37 percent with Clinton leading Bush among women 49 percent to 37 percent. Among voters below 50, Bush is ahead of Clinton 42 percent to 39 percent.

The former first lady is ahead of the Wisconsin governor by 46 percent to 42 percent with 13 percent undecided. Among women, Clinton leads Walker 51 percent to 38 percent, but Walker holds a lead over Clinton among men, 46 percent to 38 percent. Voters under 50 give the nod to Walker 44 percent to 41 percent.

Rubio is very close to Clinton head-to-head trailing 42 percent to 45 percent. Among Catholics, Rubio leads Clinton 47 percent to 41 percent and among men 48 percent to 39 percent. Clinton leads Rubio among women by a wide margin, 50 percent to 38 percent. With voters under 50, Rubio is ahead of Clinton 48 percent to 40 percent.

Note: Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,259 registered voters in Iowa regarding potential matchups [388 Republicans]. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3% [5% for the Republican Primary question]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polling method was done through IVR, with the raw results weighted by anticipated voting demographics. A full reporting of the cross tabulated results is available upon request.

Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?


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If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Carly Fiorina and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


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If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Ben Carson and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Condoleezza Rice and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

3 thoughts on “2016 Iowa poll: Bush leads crowded GOP field; Rice beats Clinton head-to-head 43% to 40%

  1. Valley Forge

    Huckabee and Paul do better against Hillary than Bush, Walker, or Rubio. Why do you highlight the latter group? Two haven’t even announced. Seems like your conclusion should be that, of the candidates expected to run, Paul and Huckabee are the most electable in Iowa. Rice is a distraction to get a headline. Why not poll Colin Powell or Santa Claus against Hillary?

    Reply

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