2015-01-07 Iowa GOP poll

Iowa poll: Romney leads nascent Iowa field with 21%, Bush at 14%, Walker 10%

January 13, 2015

Gravis Marketing Iowa Caucus Poll

The 2012 Republican nominee for president holds a leads a broad field of GOP potential contenders in the Townhall/Gravis poll conducted Jan. 5-7 among 404 registered Republican voters queried. Note: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by historical voting demographics.

Former Massachusetts governor W. Mitt Romney has never left the hearts and minds of Republican voters and he will hold the dominant position in the race for the 2016 presidential nomination until the other candidates spin up their own campaigns, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, a Florida-based pollster and call center that executed the poll. The poll carries an error rate of 3 percent.

“Romney’s name recognition and the loyalty Republicans have for their last nominee give him a opportunity that no one else has,” Kaplan said. “The question is whether he will use or let the chance pass to others.”

Gravis Marketing provides campaign website design, hosted predictive dialer software, and political direct mail services.  Gravis has a live call center located in Winter Springs, Florida and has been in business since 2010, the founder and President is Doug Kaplan.

After two years of dampening expectations, Romney—spooked by Bush’s momentum—is now working to the phones in order to put the band together for one more national tour.

While Romney decides what to do, the GOP race revolves around former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, the choice of 14 percent, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker, polling at 10 percent.

Bush, the son of President George H. W. Bush and a younger brother of President George W. Bush, went from a stealth candidate over Thanksgiving to today’s full-blown exploratory candidate.

Although he is portrayed as a white bread patrician in the press, Bush ran Florida for eight years as a red-meat-movement-conservative cutting taxes, holding teachers accountable and expanding gun rights. A Catholic convert, Bush is married to the daughter of a Mexican migrant worker and speaks Spanish without the effort his brother W. exerted.

Of course, the defining moment of Bush’s tenure was his extreme effort in the losing battle to save the life of Terry Schiavo.

Walker, the governor of Iowa’s northeast border, signaled his intention to run with the New Year announcements of his presidential campaign team: Rick Wiley, campaign manager; Nicole Tieman, press secretary; Colleen Coyle, finance director, as well as, other staffers: Stephan Thompson, Jonathan Wetzel and Keith Gilkes.

Wiley, a managing partner of the Mercury political consultancy, led the 2012 Romney volunteer and ground game effort with a $180 million budget. In the 2008 cycle, he was a senior staffer in Rudolph W. Giuliani’s White House run.

If Walker, who was the 2012 Human Events Conservative of the Year, does launch his 2016 run, it will be his fifth election in eight years. In 2008, he was elected Milwaukee County Executive, 57 percent of the vote, followed by governor in 2010, 52 percent of the vote, a Democratic-led recall election, 53 percent of the vote, and re-election for governor in 2014, 52 percent of the vote.

Former Arkansas governor Michael D. Huckabee garnered the support of 9 percent.

Huckabee won the 2008 Iowa caucuses with 34 percent of the vote, and who finished second behind Arizona’s Sen. John S. McCain III in the year’s race for the White House nomination. In that campaign, Romney was in second place until he withdrew to endorse McCain.

Kentucky’s Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul was the choice of 8 percent and Texas’ Sen. R. Edward “Ted” Cruz (R.-Texas) was the choice of 7 percent.

There is no doubt that Paul is gearing up for a run and the question is whether he can energize the people and pocketbooks that supported his father former Texas congressman Dr. Ronald E. Paul.

Paul the Elder finished third in the 2012 Iowa caucuses, but at the GOP national convention, 23 of the state’s 28 delegates voted for Paul.

In a campaign cycle full of dynastic names, the Paul’s father-to-son succession is the wild card.

In some ways, the 2012 Paul the Elder campaign was a hostage situation, as party mandarins watched to see if the congressman would endorse Romney and keep his supporters from turning the convention into Chicago 1968 spectacle, which he did, in exchange for his son getting a fair shot at the big time.

Paul the Younger, himself an accomplished eye surgeon, in his own right, has emerged from his father’s shadow. With major foreign policy address at the Heritage Foundation and a high-profile visits Israel and Detroit, the senator has created his own persona as a thoughtful and provocative conservative.

If there was a surprise in the poll it was the poor showing of New Jersey Gov. Christopher J. Christie, who was the choice of 5 percent.

Christie is coming off a very successful 2014 campaign cycle, when he was the leader of the Republican Governors Association, he won 31 out of 50 gubernatorial races—picking up two corner offices.

Much can change in the one year between now and the Jan. 16, 2016 Iowa Caucuses, in previous cycles many a now-forgotten politician was dubbed the next president in the early goings, only to have a mistress, a foul business deal or horrific debate performance bring everything to an all-stop.

Other numbers and charts from the poll:

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

Approval of Obama

The following questions are for demographic purposes.
Are you Hispanic?


Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Religious affiliationWhat is the highest level of education you have completed?

Education CategoryHow old are you?

Age group

This entry was posted in Polls and tagged on by .

Neil W. McCabe is a political director for Gravis Marketing and a McCabe is the political director of Gravis Marketing. Washington-based journalist McCabe is the Washington editor of Armed American Radio and a Townhall.com columnist. McCabe was a staff writer and photographer for The Pilot, Boston's Catholic paper, as well as the editor of The Alewife and The Somerville News, two free community papers in the Boston-area. He was a senior reporter at Human Events and the editor of HE's Guns & Patriots newsletter. A veteran of the Army Reserve, he deployed to Iraq as a combat historian.

61 thoughts on “Iowa poll: Romney leads nascent Iowa field with 21%, Bush at 14%, Walker 10%

  1. Juan Reynoso

    By: Juan Reynoso, activist – voteforamerica@gmail.com
    http://anticorruptionact.org/. STAND FOR AMERICA http://www.teaparty.org/
    “Americas must realize that self-scrutiny is not treason. Self-examination is not disloyalty.”
    We seek the truth and let the people know. America will never be destroyed from the outside; it will be destroyed from within. Greed and the love for money are evil. The evil factors that will destroy our country are: Corporate greed and bribes that corrupts our government, military interventions to rob foreign countries of their natural resources and the NEOCON promotion of globalization. If we falter to take action and loss our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves by ignorance and apathy. We know our enemy; we must destroy them before they destroy us.
    The Bush Family history is a four generations of culture of corruption and evil deeds. Ban all members of the Bush family from holding a political post, they will be tray us.

    The Bush Family history is a four generations of culture of corruption and evil deeds. They all have the seed of sociopath and sycophants; their ideology is; the ends justified the means. They are killers and traitors that betray our country and demise the trust of the American people in our government and democracy. This family with the collaborations of the thousands of whores that sell out their principles and honor for power and money are the elite of the NEOCON, the world’s bullies and colonizer of the emerging countries that without any regards for our Constitution, our laws, human rights, dignity and justice; they were engage in the bribery, military interventions and the killings of foreign elected presidents to gain control of their country’s natural resources and the enslavers of the working class.
    Prescott Bush was a Nazi-whore, but his father Samuel was worse (WWI)
    Prescott Bush: The Nazi-Bush Connection
    Bush/Nazi Link Continued
    Prescott Bush – Grandfather of George W. Bush. Helped Hitler’s rise to Power
    Bush’s Grandfather, Prescott Bush Led Nazi Coup against White House in 1933
    Prescott Bush the Connecticut Senator NEOCON Ideology colonizer
    Investigation into the Sordid Past Behind the Bush Family

    Bush family fortunes bribery and corruption.
    The Bush four generations of crimes.
    Bill Clinton aid and cover up the Bush crimes.
    Exposing the CIA, Bush, Clinton, Iran Contra, & Drug Running
    Is the CIA Involved in Drug Trafficking? “I think George Bush is deep into it” – Ron Paul
    In Search of the American Drug Lords.avi
    rporations control the news media in the us

    George Bush, Skull and Bones, the CIA and Illicit Drug Operations
    Karl Rove the man that contributed to the demise of our country.
    Corporate Media; Propaganda & manipulation; Documentary
    The Great Conspiracy The 9/11 News Special You Never Saw


  2. Frank Alo

    Romney, like Jebbie boy is just another liberal Rhino republicRAT. You would think that the establishment would have learned a lesson by now – McCain, Dole, Romney – establishment Rhinos all – losers all. Conservative Republicans and true conservatives will just vote with their feet just like always. I would not be surprised if that’s what the republican establishment actually wants – if they can’t have their own establishment RAT in the white house then they don’t want any republican in the white house.

  3. Bung Holio

    Romney blew it when he called Obama a “Nice Guy” and said he loves illegal aliens so much. Just like the rest of these piles of zhhht. Go away Romney. Your 15 minutes are up.

  4. Micheal McLeran

    Romney is the Man for all Reasons, the truth and wisdom that will save this beautiful
    republic from it’s current trajectory into the pits of hell. Everything in me screams for his leadership. Like when Harry Truman was plowing his field when the big four door car pulled over and dark suited men jumped out and walked through fields to the tractor Harry was sitting atop and began pleading with him to accept the nomination for president to save our country. This is our last chance fellow Americans, our constitution is being ripped from our hands and the tears produced are only generating more tears. Please consider Romney, he is in all probability our last hope. God bless America.

  5. Flossy

    Just curious…

    Is there a reason that you left out the geopolitical strategist who defeated Hillarycare, led the Republican Revolution and outmaneuvered her hubby to advance Reagan’s vision & policies into the ’90s in the largest landslide sweep of congress in history?

    Or is Mr Republican Revolution referred to in this poll as candidate “Uncertain”?

  6. Labor Equals Zero

    1. There should not exist, a US Federal State, and most if not all non-federal State governments should cease.
    2. It should be damn obvious to everyone that recycled nominees just proves the Presidency is a scam, and should be stopped.
    3. If not, impeachment proceedings should start January 20th after the election.
    4. Stop voting. Stop paying taxes.
    5. Show the scam for what it is.
    6. Stop State-Worship. Stop the Wars.

    1. MAKE MY DAY

      A Romney / Walker or Romney / Cruz ticket would work just fine for me!!! Mitt has NO doubt learned from his previous mistakes!! No more Mr. “nice guy”!!

      I will NEVER vote for another Bush!!! Case closed!!

  7. Jane Bingham

    Cruz and Rubio are not natural born Citizens, so how are they included on this poll?

    Hasn’t ANYBODY respect for the U.S. Constitution?

  8. Steve Grupe

    the 18 percent uncertain coming in second is really laughable , is that really trying to cover up supporters of Ben Carson?

  9. CoolBeast

    What in heavens name is wrong with you Republicans?, I will take my vote somewhere else if Mitt or Jeb is on the ballot !!!
    I am SO SICK of the BUSH,ROMMNEY,CLINTON,OBAMA names on ballots I could Baaaarrffffff.
    America wake up!

  10. redhotmama

    IF Repubs don’t select a minority for the VP slot, it’s over, no matter how incompetent and corrupt Clinton is

  11. muneshadowe

    These early pols are not an indicator, usually it is the fifth to seventh that gets the nod by the VOTERS unless there is fraud involved. Don’t doubt the establishment GOP would not do it either.

  12. just another serf

    Simply more propaganda from the evil empire. This clown is yet all in the same as the rest of these controlled puppets. In reality this moron is about as wanted as a good case of syphellis. The constant rotation of the same criminals every 4 years should be your 1st clue that We, The People have been deceived and distracted!!!

  13. Seriously

    These polls are pure BS. They’ve been used by the east coast bankers and industrialists running the RNC to convince the rank and file how to vote. They are setting the stage for stooges in both parties to win their primaries to ensure their reckless foreign policy will continue.

  14. Nik Lipor

    Not voting for Bush’s, Romney’s, or any other person that has run in the past. I will be voting for Scott Walker if he ends up officially announcing his intention to run.

  15. sh

    Linked to Drudge…. Seriously? presenting Market BS as a POLL.. C’mon,,, you can do better..

    About Gravis Marketing
    February 25, 2013Gravis Marketing admin

    About Gravis Marketing

    Turnkey Campaign Advertising and Call Center Specialists

    Gravis Marketing is an award-winning public relations firm with a clientele including political campaigns, public affairs organizations, consultants, and nonprofit organizations across the globe. Founded in 2010 by Doug Kaplan, Gravis Marketing has quickly become an industry leader in innovative turnkey campaign advertising and marketing solutions specializing in innovative call center technologies in a very short period of time.

    Our key areas of expertise include:

    Designing, implementing and analyzing rapid-response political and opinion polling for public sector campaigns
    Directing innovative market research to identify business opportunities and maximize profits for private sector clients
    Crafting original, high-impact messaging through a wide variety of media, to advance public, private and non-profit sector campaigns
    Whether your campaign is just starting out at the grass-roots level, or is already established at the national or international level, our team’s goal is to provide superior results to your organization that exceed expectations in the most efficient, cost-effective way possible.

    Click the images below of some of our outstanding media partners to read how Gravis Marketing is beginning to transform the political landscape.

  16. Bill Seaward

    Jeb Bush is NOT a “converted Catholic”. He has converted from the Anglican stream of Catholicism (Episcopal/Anglican/Methodist) to the Roman stream of Catholicism. Please stop assuming that non-Roman Catholics are not Catholic.

  17. Don Lamb

    I think both Mitt & Jeb are good men, but not a good choice for the republicans. They are too moderaate and because of that they will not win. Mitt only needed a similar amout of votes as McCain and he would have won by a landslide, but the conservatives walked away when McCain ran and did not return and then the evangelico vote left too when Mitt ran. In order to get these sections of the republican voting faction back and keep the Tea Party as well it will take a true conservative like Scott Walker or Ted Cruz, or even a ticket having walker for Pres and Cruz as Vice Pres would be even better! A moderate republican has no chance, because it is just like voting for a moderate democrat, except there do not seem to be any moderate democrats today. And Harry Truman a democrat pres of the past was more conservative than the moderate Republicans of today!

  18. Steve

    Strange poll considering that the mid-terms suggest the American people are not in the mood for another open border marshmallow president…

  19. Tom

    2008 I voted for McCain and held my nose. 2012 I voted for Romney and held my nose and had a vomit bag ready. But for what purpose? Never again am I voting for a loser RINO! Never again will I chose the “lesser of two evils.” What is wrong with the people of Iowa?

  20. Fred1

    Romney’s reboot: Can the 2012 loser really fix his problems in 2016?

    No, he will Not be a candidate for President.

  21. Jersey Mark

    The interesting result is that “uncertain” is in second place with 18%. Uncertain is a place holder for a certain woman who has not announced as yet but will which will cause a political earthquake.

  22. Kyle Peltier

    Will someone please tell Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, and Chris Christy to SIT DOWN!
    Romney and Huckabee have already tried to run for president. The majority of people DONT WANT THEM. I dont think Rand Paul could win a national election, and Chris Christy is NOT CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH to be called a republican anywhere outside of new england.

  23. MAK

    Look at what happened to this country because we didn’t elect Mitt Romney. He was right on all accounts! I want to give him the chance he deserves to run this country. He truly loves this country. We need someone in the White House who has been successful in the private sector and who has successfully governed a state.
    Mitt is the man in 2016.

  24. debbie

    For crying out loud America! Do you no longer remember what our founding fathers did for this country? ( Probably not since our children’s history books have been rewritten) Pray! Pray before you go to the polls. Our country is imploding, and we are doing it to ourselves.

  25. kenneth chick

    I’m a Cruz or Rand Paul guy. But if Huckabee is pushing the FairTax then I’m switching right now! The FairTax literally fixes almost everything. Its kryptonite for K Street lobbyists. Its forged steel handcuffs for big government big spending legislators. It abolishes the IRS, lowers retail prices, increases the money supply and gets the government off our backs. Go Huck!

  26. chris norbert

    Mitt Romney was too much a gentleman to instinctively strike back when attacked in 2012 – as against Candy Crowley, where he was blind-sided.
    He has learned. He is still a gentleman, but he has learned how to respond to liberal attacks.

  27. caligula

    granted Romney is far smarter than obama and would have been a far superior POTUS. there’s no question about it, and i will vote for him if he wins the primary. but i will definitely be pulling for Scott Walker. he’s the man.

  28. David Hedricks

    I would say surely America isn’t dumb enough to try to put Mitt in office again but, ‘America’ voted for Obama, twice, so there goes that logic.

  29. Kaye Merrill

    Mitt is a proven leader. Look at his success in Bain Capital and the SLC Olympics. As Govenor of Massachusetts, he got Dems and Republicans to work together. He is experienced and fully vetted. MR16

  30. Len

    Let’s get real – no one is going to beat HC unless it is a pairing of Walker/Rice or Walker/Carson. Liberal media, visual/readable is in the HC corner along with 90% of the entertainment industry, i.e. films &music. Let’s get real, she already has 240 electoral votes to start with. The only way she loses, she doesn’t run.

  31. richard Fonte

    walker as Iowa neighbor is a strength that has been unrecognized by national media. Obama had similar advantage in 2008 in dem field

  32. JC Sampsell

    The famous Gravis Marketing Poll, who called 300 voters on the Iowans For Romney website and managed to get 62 of them to pretend they would vote for him again.

  33. George

    Willard Romney is a non-starter “mitt”
    John Ellis Bush “jeb” same thing.
    Mike Huckabee is a one note wonder.
    Chris Christie is a democrat. “fat bastard”
    Ted Cruz is a dual-citizen and can’t be President.

  34. TombStoneJim

    Dear Lord let it be ANYONE but Romney or Bush. Dr. Ben Carson is a great choice, Teed Cruz a great choice……..


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