Human Events and Gravis Marketing conducted a random survey of 741 likely registered voters in Montana regarding statewide candidates by automated IVR phone calls between 7/20/2014-7/22/2014. The poll carries a margin of error of 4% with a 95% confidence level.
Human Events and Gravis Marketing polled the US Senate race in Montana. These results reveal a tightening race between Senator John Walsh (D) and Representative Steve Daines (R). Daines leads Walsh 45% to 41% with Libertarian candidate Roger Roots with 6% support from voters surveyed. Given these results, Daines’ may make gains from Roots’ supporters as third-party candidates generally see defections in support to mainstream candidates as Election Day nears. “An incumbent such as Senator Walsh might be getting worried,” Gravis Marketing head Doug Kaplan said, “An incumbent that has percentages in the low 40’s at this time of the year might have a hard time getting re-elected.”
Gravis Marketing also polled the open At-Large US House race. The survey found Republican nominee Ryan Zinke leading Democratic nominee John Lewis 47% to 35% with the Libertarian candidate Mike Fellows taking 6% of the vote.
Two hypothetical matchups were also polled. The first involved the 2016 Montana Governor’s Race the second involved the 2016 Presidential race. In the Montana Governor’s race respondents were asked if they would prefer to vote for current Democratic Governor Steve Bullock or Republican Attorney General Tim Fox. Governor Bullock leads Tim Fox 46% to 43% in a hypothetical matchup. In the Presidential race Gravis Marketing found that Jeb Bush would likely keep Montana in the Republican column against Hillary Clinton. He leads Clinton 49% to 39% in a hypothetical matchup.