North Carolina Gov. Patrick L. McCrory (Courtesy)

North Carolina poll: Bush, Walker lead in GOP field; Cooper leads McCory in governor’s race

May 11, 2015

While among North Carolina Republicans John E. “Jeb” Bush, a former governor of Florida, leads a crowded field of Republican candidates, with 18 percent of support, his support lags in the state’s Tea Party, where Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker leads him 17 percent to 10 percent, according to an April 30 Gravis Insights of 1,479 registered poll of Tar Heel State voters.

The survey sample was made up of 835 Republicans and 524 Democrats. Questions to Republicans carry a 3 percent margin of error and to Democrats carry a margin of error of 4 percent. Questions to the entire sample population carry a margin of error of 2 percent. The poll was conducted using automated calls and IVR political campaign software technology

The poll also shows strong support for state Attorney General Roy A. Cooper III, a Democrat, who has announced his candidacy in to oppose Republican Gov. Patrick L. McCrory. The former Duke Energy executive, elected in 2012, is running for a second term.

North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper

North Carolina Attorney General Roy A. Cooper III (Courtesy)

Cooper leads McCrory with 44 percent to the governor’s 42 percent, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that conducted the poll. Gravis Insights is a nonpartisan research firm.

In 2008, McCrory lost to Beverly Perdue 50 percent to 47 percent and in 2012 McCrory defeated the incumbent Democrat Lt. Gov. Walter H. Dalton 55 percent 43 percent.

The governor’s approval rating is 33 percent among all voters, 61 percent with the Tea Party, 40 percent with voters in gun owning families and 52 percent with pro-life voters in the latest Gravis telephone survey.

North Carolina voters oppose raising taxes on gasoline, 61 percent to 26 percent. But when they were asked if the federal government should ban online gambling, which on Capitol Hill is purpose of legislation before both the House and Senate, commonly called the “Restore America’s Wire Act” or RAWA.

The poll also tested the strength of Republican candidates against former first lady Hillary R. Clinton, a Democrat.

“Bush and Walker are competitive in every state, but we wanted to see how the GOP race was working inside the different constituencies of the Republican Party,” Kaplan said.

Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott K. Walker (Courtesy)

Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott K. Walker (Courtesy)

In the general Republican race, Florida’s Sen. Marco A. Rubio trails Bush with 16 percent, followed by Walker’s 13 percent, Kaplan said. Former Arkansas governor Michael D. Huckabee with 11 percent and Texas’ Sen. R. Edward Cruz with 8 percent. In the 2008 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, Huckabee lost the North Carolina primary to Arizona’s Sen. John S. McCain III, 74 percent to 12 percent and finished second to McCain in the overall campaign.

Gravis Marketing Political Poll

Sen. R. Edward “Ted” Cruz (R.-Texas) (Courtesy)

Kaplan said Huckabee is a close-close second to Walker with the Tea Party with 16 percent, followed by Rubio, 14 percent, Cruz 13 percent. “It is a tight group at the top, but there is real separation between the top four and Bush.”

Bush does much better with pro-life Republicans and Republicans from gun owning families, he said.

“There is a tie between Bush and Rubio with pro-life Republicans with both men at 15 percent,” he said. “Both Walker and Huckabee come in with 14 percent and Cruz has the support of 10 percent.”

Cruz, like the others is firmly opposed to abortion, but the gap reflects both his emphasis on different issues and the let down from the pop from his announcement in March, he said.

Both Rubio and Bush are the choice of voters, who own a gun or belong to a family with guns in the home, with the Floridians garnering support of 16 percent, he said. Walker holds close at 13 percent, followed by Huckabee at 11 percent and Cruz at 9 percent.

Kaplan said when Gravis Insights a division of Gravis Marketing polled North Carolina Republican supporters of abortion rights, Bush is the clear favorite with the 27 percent of respondents choosing him. Bush is followed by Rubio at 20 percent, but then there is a sharp drop off.

Among GOP voters, who support abortion rights, Walker and Cruz have the support of 11 percent and Huckabee has the support of 10 percent.

John E. "Jeb" Bush (Courtesy)

John E. “Jeb” Bush (Courtesy)

North Carolina has a reputation as a conservative state, which it is, but it has a significant liberal twinge that leads it to go for President Barack Obama in 2008 and to elect Democratic senators and governors with far more regularity than South Carolina or Georgia. In fact, when McCrory won the 2012 governor’s race, he was the first Republican governor elected since 1988.

This purple streak in North Carolina politics reflects the influence of the state’s colleges and universities that have long been liberal sanctuaries, the influx of northerners attracted by the state’s high-tech and industrial revival and the black vote that accounts for more than 20 percent of the general election turnout in 2014.

According to the Gravis/Townhall poll, former secretary of state Hillary R. Clinton is running strong against the leading Republican candidates. She is consistently in the high 40s against the Republicans with the variation coming with each candidates own popularity and slight swings in the number of undecided voters.

Clinton is in a virtual-tie with Bush, 45 percent to Bush’s 44 percent and against Rubio, Clinton leads 46 percent to Rubio’s 45 percent. Clinton leads Walker 47 percent to in 45 percent. Clinton leads Huckabee 47 percent to 44 percent. Clinton leads Cruz 48 to 44 percent.

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?


Do approve or disapprove of Governor McCrory’s Job Performance?


If the North Carolina Republican Primary for President was held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson, whom would you vote for?


If the North Carolina Democratic Primary for President was held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee, and Bill De Blasio, whom would you vote for?


If the North Carolina Democratic Primary for President was held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee, and Bill De Blasio, whom would you vote for?


If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Roy Cooper, whom would you vote for?


If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Richard Burr and Democrat Kay Hagan, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


Do you believe that Hillary Clinton is a trustworthy and honest individual or not?


Hillary Clinton used a personal email account to conduct government business while working as Secretary of State under the Obama Administration. Does this issue factor into why you think Hillary Clinton is a trustworthy and honest individual or not?


Do you think Congress should ban online gambling?


Do you think Congress should raise the gas tax in order to pay for highways, bridges, and mass transit projects?


Do you or anyone in your family own a gun or firearm?


Do you consider yourself to be Pro-Life or Pro-Choice when it comes to the question of whether or not abortion should be legal?

One thought on “North Carolina poll: Bush, Walker lead in GOP field; Cooper leads McCory in governor’s race

  1. jim z

    Deceptive headline, Walker does NOT lead in GOP field. Only amongst those who call themselves “Tea Party”. In all GOP voters, it is Bush followed Sen. Marco Rubio. Rubio is also the top choice among Pro-life, and gun owning Republicans. Head line should say Bush, Rubio lead GOP field.

    Reply

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