Human Events- Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 Polling

July 19, 2014

Human Events and Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 523 registered voters in New York’s 18th Congressional District regarding current candidates.

The survey was conducted by automated IVR calls of likely voters between 7/17/2014-7/19/2014. The poll carries a margin of error of ±4% with a 95% confidence level.  Gravis Marketing conducted a survey of likely voters in the race for New York’s 18th Congressional District seat. These results indicate that the race is tight between former

Republican Congresswoman Nan Hayworth and current Democratic Congressman Sean Maloney. Both candidates enjoy positive favorability ratings among surveyed voters. With 41% of those surveyed expressing a favorable opinion of Hayworth compared to 40% expressing an unfavorable opinion. Congressman Sean Maloney held 37% favorability among voters versus 34% expressing an unfavorable opinion. Maloney also received a 36% job approval rating with only 31% disapproving of his job performance in the district. It is also important to note that respondents in this district viewed President Obama’s job approval more negatively, with 34% approving of the President’s job performance and 56% disapproving. This may indicate that voters are not willing to apply disapproval of the President to Maloney.

For the horse race question concerning the two candidates the Republican challenger Nan Hayworth held a 4-point advantage over Congressman Sean Maloney (44% to 40%) with 16% undecided. Concerning these results, Gravis Marketing, Director, Doug Kaplan states, “Most of the time you don’t see incumbents supporting modest job approval ratings losing their races.

However, when you have a President who has a low job approval rating in this district it is bound to effect the incumbent or challenging party.” As of now, the race leans towards the Republican candidate, but it is anticipated it will be challenged fiercely by the Democrats. “Nevertheless this district is a swing district and it could just as easily reelect Congressman Sean Maloney,” Doug Kaplan explained.

 

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?
Approval of Obama2 Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 Polling
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Democrat Sean Maloney?
Opinion of Maloney Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 PollingDo you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Republican Nan Hayworth?
Opinion of Hayworth Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 PollingIf the election for US Representative were held today and the candidates were Republican Nan Hayworth and Democrat Sean Maloney, whom would you vote for?
US Representative Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 PollingDo you approve or disapprove of Representative Sean Maloney’s job performance?
Approval of Maloney Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 PollingHow likely are you to vote in the General Election on November 4, 2014?
Likelihood of Voting2 Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 PollingThe following questions are for demographic purposes.

What is your political party affiliation?
Party2 Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 PollingAre you Hispanic?
Hispanic2 Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 PollingWhat race do you identify yourself as?
Race2 Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 PollingWhich of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Religious affiliation2 Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 PollingWhat is the highest level of education you have completed?
Education Category2 Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 PollingHow old are you?
Age group2 Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 PollingWhat is your gender?
Gender2 Human Events  Gravis Marketing New York Congressional District 18 Polling
Note: the polls were conducted using automated telephone and weighted by voting demographics.

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