Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

February 16, 2014

Texas counties map 150x150 Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Human Events-Gravis Marketing Texas Poll

Human Events-Gravis Marketing, conducted a random survey of 729 likely republican primary voters in  Texas regarding Republican Steve Stockman and Republican John Cornyn between 2/10/14 and 2/12/14.  The poll carries a margin of error of 3.6%. The telephone poll was conducted using automated phone calls to landlines and live operators contacting cellphone only households.

Cornyn or Stockman Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

The Telephone poll centered on voters’ approval of Stockman and Cornyn and surveyed voters on candidate preference if the election were held today.  John Cornyn, the Senate Minority Whip who has held his seat since 2002 has been cast by GOP challenger Congressman Steve Stockman as a beltway insider and will likely try to frame his challenge to the seat as a referendum on Washington politics.

Douglas Kaplan of Gravis Marketing states, “Congressman Stockman is much closer than expected. Cornyn is under 50% with a significant amount still undecided, which is dangerous territory for an incumbent. The poll was conducted before Cornyn’s recent cloture vote on raising the debt limit, which could hurt him among conservative primary voters.”

Among all registered voters when asked “Do you approve or disapprove of Republican Steve Stockman?”, 55% indicated they were unsure while 28% approved and 18% disapproved.  Further, when asked “Do you approve or disapprove of John Cornyn?”, 49% indicated they approved, 26% disapproved and 24% were unsure.

Lastly, when asked, “If the election for U.S. Senate Primary were held today, would you vote for Republican Steve Stockman or Republican John Cornyn?”, Cornyn holds a 15-point lead (43% to 28%) over Stockman with 29% of voters expressing uncertainty over their choice. The uncertain voters at this stage in the contest could indicate that Stockman’s entry into race on December 9, 2013 has inserted uncertainty into the minds of Cornyn supporters or those who may have abstained from voting.

Examining these data on party identification and ideology metrics, voters surveyed about their approval of Stockman showed a modest majority of uncertainty among Independents (54.9%) and Republicans (54.2%), while only 32.7% of identified Republicans indicated they approved of this candidate. For Cornyn, voters appeared to be more salient in their preferences with uncertainty at 23.9% among Independents and 21.9% among Republicans; 41.4% of Independents expressed disapproval, while only 20.2% of Republicans disapproved.

Support for Cornyn rests primarily in Republicans at 57.9%, while 34.7% of Independents expressed approval.

The most significant data here rests among those surveyed who identified themselves as Very Conservative.  Among these voters, Cornyn holds a 12.3 percentage point advantage over Stockman (46.2% to 33.9%).  Interestingly, among this group of voters, the uncertainty gap was significant with 21.9% expressing uncertainty about Cornyn’s candidacy and 50.6% indicating the same for Stockman.

Do you approve or disapprove of Republican Steve Stockman?

Approve Stockman Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Do you approve or disapprove of John Cornyn?

Approve Cornyn Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

If the election for U.S. Senate Primary were held today, would you vote for Republican Steve Stockman or Republican John Cornyn?

Cornyn or Stockman Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

The following questions are for demographic purposes.

What is your political party affiliation?

Party Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Are you Hispanic?

Hispanic1 Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

What race do you identify yourself as?

Race1 Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Politically speaking, how would you describe you your political views?

Political Views Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

Religious Affiliation Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

What is the highest level of education you have completed?

Education Category Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

How old are you?

Age Group1 Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

What is your Gender?

Gender1 Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

Note: the telephone polls were conducted using automated telephone for landlines (692 responses) and live cell phone calls for cell phones (37 responses).  The results are weighed according to anticipated voting geographic and demographics characteristics.

Previous Gravis Marketing telephone Polls Florida Telephone Poll Florida Congressional Telephone Poll shows David Jolly winning his primary.

 

37 thoughts on “Texas Telephone Poll: Stockman Gaining Against Cornyn In Primary Battle

  1. Pingback: Texas - Sen. Cornyn in Danger Zone Against GOP Primary Opponent - JP Updates | JP Updates

  2. Pingback: Stockman Closing Gap on Cornyn in Latest TX Senate Poll

  3. royce mitchell

    This poll omits the candidate who consistently beats both of the insider candidates, Dwayne Stovall. It is typical of the Republican Party establishment to do its best to skew the polls against a grass roots candidate.

    Reply
  4. Pingback: 2010 Redux: Team Obama goes all in on global warming | International American Council

  5. Pingback: 2010 Redux: Team Obama goes all in on global warming

  6. Pingback: 2010 Redux: Team Obama goes all in on global warming | Liberty Loyalists

  7. Pingback: 2010 Redux: Team Obama goes all in on global warming - Fox News | ▇ ▅ █ ▅ ▇ ▂ ▃ ▁ ▁ ▅ ▃ ▅ ▅ ▄ ▅ ▇

  8. Pingback: Texas GOP poll: Cornyn 43% leads Stockman 28%; Failure to garner 50% triggers run off

  9. Pingback: 2010 Redux: Team Obama goes all in on global warming – Fox News | Teamericans.us

  10. Pingback: Telephone poll: Stockman closing in on Cornyn | Houston News

  11. Pingback: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/17 | ▇ ▅ █ ▅ ▇ ▂ ▃ ▁ ▁ ▅ ▃ ▅ ▅ ▄ ▅ ▇

  12. Pingback: Stockman gains 22 points in latest poll; Cornyn well under 50 - iVoter.com | iVoter.com

  13. Pingback: Da Tech Guy On DaRadio Blog » Blog Archive » A Small opening in the Texas Senate Race

  14. Pingback: 2010 Redux: Team Obama goes all in on global warming | NEWS.GNOM.ES

  15. Kelly Canon

    Any time y’all want to cunduct a real poll, just l et me know. Dwayne Stovall (it would seem) could easily represent that “unsure” slot. And you didn’t even give them choice of “other”? No wonder “push polls” are so unpopular. You may have just hurt Stockman’s chances, which of course, would be a good thing. Who actually paid for this poll? Stockman has huge campaign debt, and Cornyn wouldn’t bother with it. Just curious.

    Reply
  16. Dave

    OH My God. If STeve Stockman wins, please God, I pray that a moderate voice of reason will win in the general election. Stockman, is truly scary. The only Republican who invited Ted Nugent to the state of the union after Nugent once made a subtle threat to Obama. God, these Tea Vipers are toxic!

    Reply
  17. Pingback: Titanic shift in key Senate race

  18. Pingback: Steve Stockman Gains On John Cornyn In Latest GOP Primary Poll | bloggergate

  19. Pingback: Steve Stockman Gains On John Cornyn In Latest GOP Primary Poll | Political Ration

  20. Diappointed Texas Resident

    This poll is not worth the read. It is focussed on choosing the lesser of two evils….there are other candidates and if half the time was given to any of them they too might be as recognizable as any other. Cornyn has wronged Texas and he knows it! There ARE other candidates that would do well. I won’t tell you my thoughts on Stockman. I choose Ken Cope, down to earth business man, military background and real solutions to real problems. Read about them yourself at http://www.copetexas.com

    Reply
  21. Pingback: Titanic Republican shift in key Senate race that could send shock waves through GOP - ALIPAC

  22. Pingback: Texas Primaries: Cornyn Slipping Well Below 50% | ▇ ▅ █ ▅ ▇ ▂ ▃ ▁ ▁ ▅ ▃ ▅ ▅ ▄ ▅ ▇

  23. Pingback: Titanic Republican shift in key Senate race | Colorado Can We Talk

  24. Pingback: Texas Primaries: Cornyn Slipping Well Below 50% | Follow Liberty - Liberty Starts Now

  25. Pingback: Cornyn Falls Behind Stockman in GOP Primary Poll | TexanPost

  26. Pingback: Texas Telephone Survey: Republicans Undecided About Cornyn and Stockman

  27. Pingback: Texas Telephone Survey: Republicans Undecided About Cornyn and Stockman | SproutNews

  28. Ed Stein

    If you did a poll and mentioned Dwayne Stovall’s name, you might be quite surprised how well he stacks up against Cornyn..

    Reply
  29. Ed Stein

    If you were to do a poll and included Dwayne Stovall, you would be quite surprised to see how well he stacks up against Cornyn.

    Reply
  30. Pingback: Steve Stockman's Senate Campaign May Be Weird and Lazy, but It's Not Surging | ▇ ▅ █ ▅ ▇ ▂ ▃ ▁ ▁ ▅ ▃ ▅ ▅ ▄ ▅ ▇

  31. Pingback: Defining deviancy all the way down the Texas ballot | Behind Frenemy Lines

  32. Pingback: Texas Telephone Survey: Republicans Undecided About Cornyn and Stockman « MarketersMedia – Press Release Distribution Services – News Release Distribution Services

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current day month ye@r *