Sen. Patricia L. Murray (D.Wash.)

Washington State poll: Paul leads GOP field, Murray leads McMorris Rodgers; Right to Work up 45% to 33%

May 22, 2015

Washington Republicans are lining up for Kentucky’s Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul with strong support from gun owners, according to the May 18-19 Townhall/Gravis Insights poll of 523 Republican voters.

Rand Paul has a national following that has not been reflected in our state-by-state polls, until we took at look at Washington State,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights a division of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based polling company that conducted the poll. The poll of Republicans carries a 4 percent margin of error.

Gravis Insights, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of 1,032 registered voters in Washington regarding potential election matchups and other relevant issues. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percent for the general election questions, 6 percent for the 256 Democratic respondents, he said. The poll was conducted using the Gravis IVR technology automated calling system and the results were weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

In other matchups, Democratic Sen. Patricia L. Murray leads her potential Republican challenger Rep. Catherine McMorris Rodgers, the chairwoman of the House Republican Policy Committee, 51 percent to 40 percent.

A Murray v. McMorris Rodgers battle would pit the moderate congresswoman, who has led Republican support of Obamacare in the House, against one of the most partisan senators in the Democratic caucus.

Watch this video of Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul (R.-Ky.) with Sean Hannity:

Paul is the choice of 13.2 percent of Republicans, he said. The other top four candidates are: Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker, 12.4 percent; former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, 11.5 percent; Florida’s Sen. Marco A. Rubio, 11.3 percent and Dr. Benjamin Carson with 7.6 percent.

“Paul comes to Washington with advantages, too,” Kaplan said. The senator’s father former Texas congressman Dr. Ronald E. Paul won the 2012 Washington caucuses with strong grassroots organization.

Sergio Gor, a spokesman for the senator, said: “Senator Rand Paul has worked very hard to grow the party over the last few years, his focus on issues like privacy and criminal justice reform gives him a unique ability to successfully engage the youth community.”

The Kentucky senator was the choice of 16 percent of Republicans, where there is a gun in the home, followed by Walker, 14 percent; Rubio, 13 percent; Bush, 10 percent and Carson with 7 percent, Kaplan said.

“Rubio is the top choice among abortion opponents with 16 percent,” he said. “The Florida senator was followed by Bush and Carson both with 13 percent, then Walker with 11 percent and Huckabee with 9 percent.”

“The dynamic of the Republican contest is in real flux right now as candidates dominate a news cycle for a few days or get a bump from their formal announcement,” he said. “Things will not settle until everyone who is in, is in—and everyone who is not running makes it clear that they are out.”

Twenty-three percent of Republicans are undecided, Kaplan said.

Bush and Walker had been the leaders of the pack, but Bush has not even announced his formal candidacy, and others, such as Rubio, Cruz and Carson have joined the fray, he said.

In statewide issues, national observers would be surprised to learn that Washington may become the 26th state to liberate its compulsory union membership laws. The campaign, led by the Employee Rights Political Action Committee, seems to have traction with voters, who support the referendum 45 percent to 33 percent.

Michelle Ray, a spokeswoman for Washington Right to Work, said the poll results jibe with the support she is seeing on the ground.

“The support is so strong that we are expanding our campaign and pushing for legislative action in addition to collecting signatures for a ballot initiative,” she said.

In the 2016 race for governor, Gov. Jay. R. Inslee has an upside-down approval rating of 38 percent favorable v. 42 percent unfavorable, Kaplan said. “But, the governor has leads over three of his potential Republican rivals.”

In the 2016 race for governor, GOP Rep. David. G. Reichart trails with 39 percent against the governor’s 43 percent. Inslee leads state Sen. Andy Hill, 44 percent to 36 percent and leads Port of Seattle Commissioner William Bryant by 10 points, 45 percent to 35 percent.

Executive Summary
Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm  conducted a random survey of 1,032 registered voters in Washington regarding potential election matchups and other relevant issues. The poll was conducted May 18 0- 19, 2015 and has a margin of error of ± 3% for the General Election, ± 4% for the Republican caucus (respondents of 523), and ± 6% for the Democratic caucus (respondents of 256). The poll was conducted using IVR technology and the results were weighted by anticipated voting demographics.
Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

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Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Inslee’s job performance?

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If the Washington Republican Caucuses for President were held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson, whom would you vote for?

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If the Washington Democratic Caucuses for President were held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee, and Bill De Blasio, whom would you vote for?

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If the Washington Democratic Caucus for President were held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee, and Bill De Blasio, whom would you vote for?

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If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Dave Reichert and Democrat Jay Inslee, whom would you vote for?

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If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Bill Bryant and Democrat Jay Inslee, whom would you vote for?

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If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Andy Hill and Democrat Jay Inslee, who would you vote for?

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If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Rob McKenna and Democrat Jay Inslee, who would you vote for?

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If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Dave Reichert and Democrat Patty Murray, whom would you vote for?

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If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Cathy McMorris Rodgers and Democrat Patty Murray, whom would you vote for?

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If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

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If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

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If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

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If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

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If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

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If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

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If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

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Do you believe that Hillary Clinton is a trustworthy and honest individual or not?

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Hillary Clinton used a personal email account to conduct government business while working as Secretary of State under the Obama Administration. Does this issue factor into why you think Hillary Clinton is a trustworthy and honest individual or not?

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Several states have what is known as a “Right to Work” law which lets workers in their states keep their job in a company regardless of whether or not he or she joins a labor union. Would you support or oppose implementing a “Right to Work” law in Washington?

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Do you think Congress should ban online gambling?

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Do you think Congress should raise the gas tax in order to pay for highways, bridges, and mass transit projects?

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The following questions are for demographic purposes.
What is your party affiliation?

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What is your political ideology?

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Do you or anyone in your family own a gun or firearm?

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Do you consider yourself to be Pro-Life or Pro-Choice when it comes to the question of whether or not abortion should be legal?

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