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Current California Polling

Current California Polling
September 22-23, 2015

Executive Summary
Winter Springs, Fla. – A 12 percentage point lead for Condoleezza Rice over her next closest primary challenger and a four point advantage over that challenger in head-to-head polling general election match-up highlight recent poll results completed by Gravis Marketing. The nonpartisan research firm based in Winter Springs, Fla recently conducted a random survey of 513 registered voters in California regarding the Senate election. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls (IVR technology) and the results are weighted by anticipated voting demographics.Condi_Rice
As with all Gravis Marketing Polls, voters polled were asked demographic measurement questions to validate data. When asked about party affiliation; 43 percent stated that they were Democratic, 31 percent indicated they were Republican while 26 answered they were Independent or other party affiliated.
The polling questions began by asking, “If the 2016 US Senate Primary were held today, who would you vote for?” 46 percent would cast their vote for Condoleezza Rice of 513 registered voters in California if the primary was held today. 34 percent stated they’d support democrat Kamala Harris. Democrat Loretta Sanchez received 11 percent support while Republican Tom Del Beccaro captured a paltry nine percent of those polled.
The next question narrowed the field of potential US Senate Seat candidates to two; pairing Condoleezza Rice against Kamala Harris. In this case, 52 percent of the voters polled indicated that if they had to choose between Condoleezza Rice and Kamala Harris, they’d select Condoleezza Rice.
Finally, voters were asked “If the general election were held today, between Condoleezza Rice & Loretta Sanchez, who would you vote for?” Of the 513 registered voters asked, Condoleezza Rice captured 64 percent support while Loretta Sanchez received 36 percent in a head-to-head match-up.
The Gravis Marketing Poll has a margin of error of ± 4% and was paid for by the Conservative Action Fund PAC. The complete results of the polling are indicated below.
If the 2016 U.S. Senate Primary were held today, who would you vote for?
Online Graphing

If the general election for United States Senate were held today, between Condoleezza Rice & Kamala Harris, who would you vote for?
Online Graphing

If the general election were held today, between Condoleezza Rice & Loretta Sanchez, who would you vote for?
Online Graphing

The following questions are for demographic purposes:
What is your party affiliation?
Online Graphing

What race do you identify yourself as?
Online Graphing

What is the highest level of education have you completed?
Online Graphing

Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
Online Graphing

How old are you?
Online Graphing

What is your gender?
Online Graphing

Gravis Marketing – Current National Polling – Aug 5th, 2015

Current National Polling

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

July 29, 2015

Executive Summary

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,535 registered voters across the U.S. regarding the presidential election.  The sample includes 732 Republicans and 803 Democrats.  The poll has a margin of error of ± 2.5%.  The total may not round to 100% because of rounding.  The polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted separately for each population in the question presented.  The poll was conducted for One American News Network.

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s Job Performance?

obummer1

Approval of Obama
DemographicResponseApproveDisapproveUnsure
PartyDemocrat75.3%18.0%6.8%
PartyRepublican11.7%85.9%2.3%
Political IdeologyModerate50.50%40.70%8.80%
Political IdeologySlightly conservative20.00%75.10%4.90%
Political IdeologySlightly liberal69.8%27.0%3.2%
Political IdeologyVery conservative15.9%81.7%2.4%
Political IdeologyVery liberal96.8%2.6%0.5%
Tea PartyNo48.00%47.00%5.00%
Tea PartyYes16.10%82.00%1.80%
FirearmsNo56.30%37.40%6.30%
FirearmsYes32.20%64.90%3.0%
Pro-Life|Pro-ChoicePro-Choice64.80%30.50%4.7%
Pro-Life|Pro-ChoicePro-Life19.50%77.40%3.1%
Pro-Life|Pro-ChoiceUnsure49.10%38.80%12.1%
HispanicNo43.80%51.90%4.30%
HispanicYes41.00%52.10%6.90%
RaceAfrican-American81.30%16.00%2.70%
RaceAsian58.10%34.90%7.00%
RaceDon’t wish to answer60.40%36.60%3.0%
RaceHispanic41.00%52.10%6.9%
RaceOther48.3%37.9%13.8%
RaceWhite34.6%60.9%4.4%
Religious affiliationCatholic41.60%53.30%5.10%
Religious affiliationEvangelical Christian22.30%76.90%0.80%
Religious affiliationJewish62.50%25.00%12.50%
Religious affiliationMuslim75.0%13.9%11.1%
Religious affiliationOther69.8%26.6%3.6%
Religious affiliationProtestant33.4%62.1%4.5%
Education categoryBachelors38.00%59.30%2.70%
Education categoryHS39.50%53.60%6.90%
Education categoryPost grad52.10%44.80%3.10%
Education categorySome college43.3%52.3%4.4%
Education categorySome HS47.8%40.2%12.0%
Age group18-4948.20%49.70%2.10%
Age group50-6440.60%53.80%5.50%
Age group65+40.10%52.90%7.00%
GenderFemale43.30%50.10%6.60%
GenderMale43.80%53.90%2.30%

Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 GOP Candidate would you vote for?

 

 

RepublicanPrimary

Republican Primary
DemographicResponseBen CarsonBobby JindalCarly FiorinaChris ChristieDonald TrumpGeorge PatakiJeb BushJohn KasichLindsey GrahamMarco RubioMike HuckabeeRand PaulRick PerryRick SantorumScott WalkerTed Cruz
Political IdeologyModerate3.01.21.84.833.7 22.99.00.63.01.83.01.21.89.03.0
Political IdeologySlightly conservative5.8 2.55.031.50.410.45.80.47.95.07.13.70.810.03.7
Political IdeologySlightly liberal3.0 3.03.036.4 3.09.19.19.112.13.0 6.13.0 
Political IdeologyVery conservative8.50.71.41.428.7 8.22.1 4.67.83.53.91.818.19.2
Political IdeologyVery liberal      90.9        9.1
Tea PartyNo5.50.51.43.530.30.216.05.60.94.86.25.12.81.112.33.9
Tea PartyYes8.50.63.72.432.3 4.33.7 7.33.71.83.03.713.411.6
FirearmsNo4.90.41.62.425.50.417.05.31.24.96.12.43.63.615.45.3
FirearmsYes6.70.82.03.733.30.211.55.10.45.55.35.32.70.611.05.7
Pro-Life|Pro-ChoicePro-Choice3.50.42.24.833.9 20.77.91.35.72.64.40.91.36.63.5
Pro-Life|Pro-ChoicePro-Life7.80.91.92.230.70.28.43.50.25.47.14.34.11.315.26.7
Pro-Life|Pro-ChoiceUnsure2.3  9.113.6 25.09.12.32.34.54.52.34.515.94.5
HispanicNo6.30.61.93.530.20.113.55.40.74.46.04.23.21.713.25.1
HispanicYes4.4 2.22.237.82.28.9  20.0 6.7  2.213.3
RaceAfrican-American    13.0 17.44.34.3  39.1 8.78.74.3
RaceAsian14.3   42.9 14.3  14.3    14.3 
RaceDon’t wish to answer4.0 4.02.022.0 32.010.02.0 8.0 10.0 2.04.0
RaceHispanic4.4 2.22.237.82.28.9  20.0 6.7  2.213.3
RaceOther 6.7 26.753.3 6.7        6.7
RaceWhite6.60.51.93.031.10.212.25.20.34.96.33.42.91.514.75.2
Religious affiliationCatholic3.40.62.25.640.40.69.63.90.64.51.74.50.63.411.86.7
Religious affiliationEvangelical Christian11.51.1 1.126.4 3.41.11.12.313.84.63.41.124.14.6
Religious affiliationJewish14.3 14.3 14.3 14.342.9        
Religious affiliationMuslim    85.7 14.3         
Religious affiliationOther1.4 1.46.833.8 23.04.1 4.16.85.4  10.82.7
Religious affiliationProtestant7.10.52.12.425.50.315.26.60.86.65.54.54.71.311.06.0
Education categoryBachelors6.50.52.33.727.60.510.33.30.97.56.13.75.12.812.66.5
Education categoryHS6.8 1.54.523.5 17.44.50.85.37.66.82.31.513.63.8
Education categoryPost grad2.2 2.23.735.8 17.99.0 7.52.22.22.20.711.23.0
Education categorySome college7.51.30.91.832.50.411.05.70.92.66.14.82.20.413.68.3
Education categorySome HS7.7 7.73.850.0 11.5  3.83.83.8 3.83.8 
Age group18-494.3  4.729.9 13.71.3 8.16.08.11.71.313.77.3
Age group50-646.41.43.21.835.00.57.77.70.55.55.52.74.12.310.55.5
Age group65+7.20.72.93.228.00.417.26.51.42.95.42.53.21.413.33.9
GenderFemale9.41.11.72.327.4 16.96.00.64.36.34.62.62.010.34.6
GenderMale3.1 2.34.433.90.39.94.20.86.35.04.23.41.014.66.5

Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 Democrat Candidate would you vote for?

DemocraticPrimary

 

 

Democratic Primary
DemographicResponseBernie SandersElizabeth WarrenHillary ClintonJim WebbJoe BidenLincoln ChafeeMartin O’Malley
Political IdeologyModerate15.9%11.4%54.7%4.9%9.0%1.6%2.4%
Political IdeologySlightly conservative6.6%6.6%64.8%6.6%12.1%1.1%2.2%
Political IdeologySlightly liberal22.9%6.5%56.2%7.0%5.0%1.5%1.0%
Political IdeologyVery conservative5.1%3.8%59.5%2.5%15.2%7.6%6.3%
Political IdeologyVery liberal28.7%12.2%46.8%4.3%4.8% 3.2%
Tea PartyNo19.1%9.2%53.7%5.2%8.2%1.7%2.9%
Tea PartyYes5.0%7.5%77.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
FirearmsNo16.8%6.6%60.0%4.6%8.1%1.2%2.7%
FirearmsYes21.1%12.6%47.2%5.7%7.9%2.5%3.1%
Pro-Life|Pro-ChoicePro-Choice21.9%8.6%56.2%3.0%5.6%2.2%2.4%
Pro-Life|Pro-ChoicePro-Life10.7%12.7%50.8%11.2%10.2%0.5%4.1%
Pro-Life|Pro-ChoiceUnsure13.9%1.4%56.9%4.2%20.8%1.4%1.4%
HispanicNo18.1%8.9%55.7%4.6%7.9%1.8%3.1%
HispanicYes20.5%10.8%48.2%9.6%9.6%1.2% 
RaceAfrican-American9.7%2.7%69.0% 12.4%4.4%1.8%
RaceAsian  100.0%    
RaceDon’t wish to answer32.1%1.9%35.8%17.0%11.3% 1.9%
RaceHispanic20.5%10.8%48.2%9.6%9.6%1.2% 
RaceOther13.3%28.9%48.9%2.2%4.4%2.2% 
RaceWhite19.9%9.4%53.1%4.7%7.4%1.4%4.1%
Religious affiliationCatholic18.7%12.4%56.0%5.2%5.7%1.0%1.0%
Religious affiliationEvangelical Christian8.0%8.0%72.0% 8.0%4.0% 
Religious affiliationJewish31.8%9.1%43.2%2.3%11.4% 2.3%
Religious affiliationMuslim22.2%3.7%70.4% 3.7%  
Religious affiliationOther22.7%9.6%52.8%2.2%7.0%3.5%2.2%
Religious affiliationProtestant13.2%7.0%54.7%8.7%10.5%1.0%4.9%
Education categoryBachelors19.8%10.4%52.6%7.3%6.3%0.5%3.1%
Education categoryHS16.2%2.7%61.3%3.6%11.7%2.7%1.8%
Education categoryPost grad23.0%9.7%52.1%5.5%2.8%4.1%2.8%
Education categorySome college18.1%7.4%54.9%4.2%10.7%0.9%3.7%
Education categorySome HS4.3%17.4%59.4%4.3%14.5%  
Age group18-4919.9%12.7%47.7%7.6%6.0%2.4%3.6%
Age group50-6420.7%6.2%58.7%3.3%8.3%0.7%2.2%
Age group65+12.7%6.6%60.9%3.6%11.2%2.5%2.5%
GenderFemale16.9%7.2%60.0%1.9%10.9%1.9%1.4%
GenderMale20.1%11.1%49.2%8.7%4.9%1.6%4.3%

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who would you vote for?

hilltrump1

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, who would you vote for?

hillbush

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Scott Walker, who would you vote for?

hillwalker

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

hillrubio

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Rand Paul, who would you vote for?

hillpaul

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz, who would you vote for?

hillcruz

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson, who would you vote for?

hillcarson

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?

hillperry

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Carly Fiorina, who would you vote for?

hillcarly

 

 

The following questions are for demographic purposes:

What is your party affiliation?

party

 

 

What is your political ideology?

ideology

 

 

Do you consider yourself a member of the Tea Party?

tea

 

 

Do you or anyone in your family own a gun or firearm?

firearms1

 

 

Do you consider yourself to be Pro-Life or Pro-Choice when it comes to the question of whether or not abortion should be legal?

prolife

 

 

Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?

spanish

 

 

What race do you identify yourself as?

race

 

 

Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

religion

 

 

What is the highest level of education have you completed?

education

 

 

How old are you?

age

 

 

What is your gender?

gender

 

 

 

Gravis Marketing Polls

While among North Carolina Republicans John E. “Jeb” Bush, a former governor of Florida, leads a crowded field of Republican candidates, with 18 percent of support, his support lags in the state’s Tea Party, where Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker leads him 17 percent to 10 percent, according to an April 30 Gravis Insights of 1,479 registered poll of Tar Heel State voters.

The survey sample was made up of 835 Republicans and 524 Democrats. Questions to Republicans carry a 3 percent margin of error and to Democrats carry a margin of error of 4 percent. Questions to the entire sample population carry a margin of error of 2 percent. The poll was conducted using automated calls and IVR political campaign software technology

The poll also shows strong support for state Attorney General Roy A. Cooper III, a Democrat, who has announced his candidacy in to oppose Republican Gov. Patrick L. McCrory. The former Duke Energy executive, elected in 2012, is running for a second term.

Cooper leads McCrory with 44 percent to the governor’s 42 percent, said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that conducted the poll. Gravis Insights is a nonpartisan research firm.

In 2008, McCrory lost to Beverly Perdue 50 percent to 47 percent and in 2012 McCrory defeated the incumbent Democrat Lt. Gov. Walter H. Dalton 55 percent 43 percent.

The governor’s approval rating is 33 percent among all voters, 61 percent with the Tea Party, 40 percent with voters in gun owning families and 52 percent with pro-life voters in the latest Gravis telephone survey.

North Carolina voters oppose raising taxes on gasoline, 61 percent to 26 percent. But when they were asked if the federal government should ban online gambling, which on Capitol Hill is purpose of legislation before both the House and Senate, commonly called the “Restore America’s Wire Act” or RAWA.

The poll also tested the strength of Republican candidates against former first lady Hillary R. Clinton, a Democrat.

“Bush and Walker are competitive in every state, but we wanted to see how the GOP race was working inside the different constituencies of the Republican Party,” Kaplan said.

Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott K. Walker (Courtesy)

Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott K. Walker (Courtesy)

In the general Republican race, Florida’s Sen. Marco A. Rubio trails Bush with 16 percent, followed by Walker’s 13 percent, Kaplan said. Former Arkansas governor Michael D. Huckabee with 11 percent and Texas’ Sen. R. Edward Cruz with 8 percent. In the 2008 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, Huckabee lost the North Carolina primary to Arizona’s Sen. John S. McCain III, 74 percent to 12 percent and finished second to McCain in the overall campaign.

Gravis Marketing Political Poll

Sen. R. Edward “Ted” Cruz (R.-Texas) (Courtesy)

Kaplan said Huckabee is a close-close second to Walker with the Tea Party with 16 percent, followed by Rubio, 14 percent, Cruz 13 percent. “It is a tight group at the top, but there is real separation between the top four and Bush.”

Bush does much better with pro-life Republicans and Republicans from gun owning families, he said.

“There is a tie between Bush and Rubio with pro-life Republicans with both men at 15 percent,” he said. “Both Walker and Huckabee come in with 14 percent and Cruz has the support of 10 percent.”

Cruz, like the others is firmly opposed to abortion, but the gap reflects both his emphasis on different issues and the let down from the pop from his announcement in March, he said.

Both Rubio and Bush are the choice of voters, who own a gun or belong to a family with guns in the home, with the Floridians garnering support of 16 percent, he said. Walker holds close at 13 percent, followed by Huckabee at 11 percent and Cruz at 9 percent.

Kaplan said when Gravis Insights a division of Gravis Marketing polled North Carolina Republican supporters of abortion rights, Bush is the clear favorite with the 27 percent of respondents choosing him. Bush is followed by Rubio at 20 percent, but then there is a sharp drop off.

Among GOP voters, who support abortion rights, Walker and Cruz have the support of 11 percent and Huckabee has the support of 10 percent.

John E. "Jeb" Bush (Courtesy)

John E. “Jeb” Bush (Courtesy)

North Carolina has a reputation as a conservative state, which it is, but it has a significant liberal twinge that leads it to go for President Barack Obama in 2008 and to elect Democratic senators and governors with far more regularity than South Carolina or Georgia. In fact, when McCrory won the 2012 governor’s race, he was the first Republican governor elected since 1988.

This purple streak in North Carolina politics reflects the influence of the state’s colleges and universities that have long been liberal sanctuaries, the influx of northerners attracted by the state’s high-tech and industrial revival and the black vote that accounts for more than 20 percent of the general election turnout in 2014.

According to the Gravis/Townhall poll, former secretary of state Hillary R. Clinton is running strong against the leading Republican candidates. She is consistently in the high 40s against the Republicans with the variation coming with each candidates own popularity and slight swings in the number of undecided voters.

Clinton is in a virtual-tie with Bush, 45 percent to Bush’s 44 percent and against Rubio, Clinton leads 46 percent to Rubio’s 45 percent. Clinton leads Walker 47 percent to in 45 percent. Clinton leads Huckabee 47 percent to 44 percent. Clinton leads Cruz 48 to 44 percent.

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?


Do approve or disapprove of Governor McCrory’s Job Performance?


If the North Carolina Republican Primary for President was held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson, whom would you vote for?


If the North Carolina Democratic Primary for President was held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee, and Bill De Blasio, whom would you vote for?


If the North Carolina Democratic Primary for President was held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee, and Bill De Blasio, whom would you vote for?


If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Roy Cooper, whom would you vote for?


If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Richard Burr and Democrat Kay Hagan, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Ted Cruz and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?


Do you believe that Hillary Clinton is a trustworthy and honest individual or not?


Hillary Clinton used a personal email account to conduct government business while working as Secretary of State under the Obama Administration. Does this issue factor into why you think Hillary Clinton is a trustworthy and honest individual or not?


Do you think Congress should ban online gambling?


Do you think Congress should raise the gas tax in order to pay for highways, bridges, and mass transit projects?


Do you or anyone in your family own a gun or firearm?


Do you consider yourself to be Pro-Life or Pro-Choice when it comes to the question of whether or not abortion should be legal?

Current Calgary Elbow Polling

The poll was conducted by an automatic telephone survey between April 2 – 6, 2015

Executive Summary
Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm that conducts political polls in the USA and Canada, conducted a random telephone survey of 445 likely voters in the constituency of Calgary Elbow.  Percentages may not total to 100% because of rounding. The results are weighted by anticipated voting demographics and has a margin of error of ±5%.

The results are as follows.

How likely is it that you will vote in the upcoming provincial general election?

As of today, how do you intend to vote in the upcoming provincial general election?

Is there a candidate you are leaning towards?

The following questions are for demographic purposes:
How old are you?

What is your gender?

Note: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by anticipated voting demographics. Gravis Marketing is a political consulting firm located in Florida.

This poll was commissioned by the Alberta Party. Gravis Marketing Press Release