Gravis Marketing – Current National Polling – Aug 5th, 2015

August 5, 2015

Current National Polling

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

July 29, 2015

Executive Summary

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,535 registered voters across the U.S. regarding the presidential election.  The sample includes 732 Republicans and 803 Democrats.  The poll has a margin of error of ± 2.5%.  The total may not round to 100% because of rounding.  The polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted separately for each population in the question presented.  The poll was conducted for One American News Network.

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s Job Performance?

obummer1

Approval of Obama
Demographic Response Approve Disapprove Unsure
Party Democrat 75.3% 18.0% 6.8%
Party Republican 11.7% 85.9% 2.3%
Political Ideology Moderate 50.50% 40.70% 8.80%
Political Ideology Slightly conservative 20.00% 75.10% 4.90%
Political Ideology Slightly liberal 69.8% 27.0% 3.2%
Political Ideology Very conservative 15.9% 81.7% 2.4%
Political Ideology Very liberal 96.8% 2.6% 0.5%
Tea Party No 48.00% 47.00% 5.00%
Tea Party Yes 16.10% 82.00% 1.80%
Firearms No 56.30% 37.40% 6.30%
Firearms Yes 32.20% 64.90% 3.0%
Pro-Life|Pro-Choice Pro-Choice 64.80% 30.50% 4.7%
Pro-Life|Pro-Choice Pro-Life 19.50% 77.40% 3.1%
Pro-Life|Pro-Choice Unsure 49.10% 38.80% 12.1%
Hispanic No 43.80% 51.90% 4.30%
Hispanic Yes 41.00% 52.10% 6.90%
Race African-American 81.30% 16.00% 2.70%
Race Asian 58.10% 34.90% 7.00%
Race Don’t wish to answer 60.40% 36.60% 3.0%
Race Hispanic 41.00% 52.10% 6.9%
Race Other 48.3% 37.9% 13.8%
Race White 34.6% 60.9% 4.4%
Religious affiliation Catholic 41.60% 53.30% 5.10%
Religious affiliation Evangelical Christian 22.30% 76.90% 0.80%
Religious affiliation Jewish 62.50% 25.00% 12.50%
Religious affiliation Muslim 75.0% 13.9% 11.1%
Religious affiliation Other 69.8% 26.6% 3.6%
Religious affiliation Protestant 33.4% 62.1% 4.5%
Education category Bachelors 38.00% 59.30% 2.70%
Education category HS 39.50% 53.60% 6.90%
Education category Post grad 52.10% 44.80% 3.10%
Education category Some college 43.3% 52.3% 4.4%
Education category Some HS 47.8% 40.2% 12.0%
Age group 18-49 48.20% 49.70% 2.10%
Age group 50-64 40.60% 53.80% 5.50%
Age group 65+ 40.10% 52.90% 7.00%
Gender Female 43.30% 50.10% 6.60%
Gender Male 43.80% 53.90% 2.30%

Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 GOP Candidate would you vote for?

 

 

RepublicanPrimary

Republican Primary
Demographic Response Ben Carson Bobby Jindal Carly Fiorina Chris Christie Donald Trump George Pataki Jeb Bush John Kasich Lindsey Graham Marco Rubio Mike Huckabee Rand Paul Rick Perry Rick Santorum Scott Walker Ted Cruz
Political Ideology Moderate 3.0 1.2 1.8 4.8 33.7   22.9 9.0 0.6 3.0 1.8 3.0 1.2 1.8 9.0 3.0
Political Ideology Slightly conservative 5.8   2.5 5.0 31.5 0.4 10.4 5.8 0.4 7.9 5.0 7.1 3.7 0.8 10.0 3.7
Political Ideology Slightly liberal 3.0   3.0 3.0 36.4   3.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 12.1 3.0   6.1 3.0  
Political Ideology Very conservative 8.5 0.7 1.4 1.4 28.7   8.2 2.1   4.6 7.8 3.5 3.9 1.8 18.1 9.2
Political Ideology Very liberal             90.9                 9.1
Tea Party No 5.5 0.5 1.4 3.5 30.3 0.2 16.0 5.6 0.9 4.8 6.2 5.1 2.8 1.1 12.3 3.9
Tea Party Yes 8.5 0.6 3.7 2.4 32.3   4.3 3.7   7.3 3.7 1.8 3.0 3.7 13.4 11.6
Firearms No 4.9 0.4 1.6 2.4 25.5 0.4 17.0 5.3 1.2 4.9 6.1 2.4 3.6 3.6 15.4 5.3
Firearms Yes 6.7 0.8 2.0 3.7 33.3 0.2 11.5 5.1 0.4 5.5 5.3 5.3 2.7 0.6 11.0 5.7
Pro-Life|Pro-Choice Pro-Choice 3.5 0.4 2.2 4.8 33.9   20.7 7.9 1.3 5.7 2.6 4.4 0.9 1.3 6.6 3.5
Pro-Life|Pro-Choice Pro-Life 7.8 0.9 1.9 2.2 30.7 0.2 8.4 3.5 0.2 5.4 7.1 4.3 4.1 1.3 15.2 6.7
Pro-Life|Pro-Choice Unsure 2.3     9.1 13.6   25.0 9.1 2.3 2.3 4.5 4.5 2.3 4.5 15.9 4.5
Hispanic No 6.3 0.6 1.9 3.5 30.2 0.1 13.5 5.4 0.7 4.4 6.0 4.2 3.2 1.7 13.2 5.1
Hispanic Yes 4.4   2.2 2.2 37.8 2.2 8.9     20.0   6.7     2.2 13.3
Race African-American         13.0   17.4 4.3 4.3     39.1   8.7 8.7 4.3
Race Asian 14.3       42.9   14.3     14.3         14.3  
Race Don’t wish to answer 4.0   4.0 2.0 22.0   32.0 10.0 2.0   8.0   10.0   2.0 4.0
Race Hispanic 4.4   2.2 2.2 37.8 2.2 8.9     20.0   6.7     2.2 13.3
Race Other   6.7   26.7 53.3   6.7                 6.7
Race White 6.6 0.5 1.9 3.0 31.1 0.2 12.2 5.2 0.3 4.9 6.3 3.4 2.9 1.5 14.7 5.2
Religious affiliation Catholic 3.4 0.6 2.2 5.6 40.4 0.6 9.6 3.9 0.6 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.6 3.4 11.8 6.7
Religious affiliation Evangelical Christian 11.5 1.1   1.1 26.4   3.4 1.1 1.1 2.3 13.8 4.6 3.4 1.1 24.1 4.6
Religious affiliation Jewish 14.3   14.3   14.3   14.3 42.9                
Religious affiliation Muslim         85.7   14.3                  
Religious affiliation Other 1.4   1.4 6.8 33.8   23.0 4.1   4.1 6.8 5.4     10.8 2.7
Religious affiliation Protestant 7.1 0.5 2.1 2.4 25.5 0.3 15.2 6.6 0.8 6.6 5.5 4.5 4.7 1.3 11.0 6.0
Education category Bachelors 6.5 0.5 2.3 3.7 27.6 0.5 10.3 3.3 0.9 7.5 6.1 3.7 5.1 2.8 12.6 6.5
Education category HS 6.8   1.5 4.5 23.5   17.4 4.5 0.8 5.3 7.6 6.8 2.3 1.5 13.6 3.8
Education category Post grad 2.2   2.2 3.7 35.8   17.9 9.0   7.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.7 11.2 3.0
Education category Some college 7.5 1.3 0.9 1.8 32.5 0.4 11.0 5.7 0.9 2.6 6.1 4.8 2.2 0.4 13.6 8.3
Education category Some HS 7.7   7.7 3.8 50.0   11.5     3.8 3.8 3.8   3.8 3.8  
Age group 18-49 4.3     4.7 29.9   13.7 1.3   8.1 6.0 8.1 1.7 1.3 13.7 7.3
Age group 50-64 6.4 1.4 3.2 1.8 35.0 0.5 7.7 7.7 0.5 5.5 5.5 2.7 4.1 2.3 10.5 5.5
Age group 65+ 7.2 0.7 2.9 3.2 28.0 0.4 17.2 6.5 1.4 2.9 5.4 2.5 3.2 1.4 13.3 3.9
Gender Female 9.4 1.1 1.7 2.3 27.4   16.9 6.0 0.6 4.3 6.3 4.6 2.6 2.0 10.3 4.6
Gender Male 3.1   2.3 4.4 33.9 0.3 9.9 4.2 0.8 6.3 5.0 4.2 3.4 1.0 14.6 6.5

Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 Democrat Candidate would you vote for?

DemocraticPrimary

 

 

Democratic Primary
Demographic Response Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Hillary Clinton Jim Webb Joe Biden Lincoln Chafee Martin O’Malley
Political Ideology Moderate 15.9% 11.4% 54.7% 4.9% 9.0% 1.6% 2.4%
Political Ideology Slightly conservative 6.6% 6.6% 64.8% 6.6% 12.1% 1.1% 2.2%
Political Ideology Slightly liberal 22.9% 6.5% 56.2% 7.0% 5.0% 1.5% 1.0%
Political Ideology Very conservative 5.1% 3.8% 59.5% 2.5% 15.2% 7.6% 6.3%
Political Ideology Very liberal 28.7% 12.2% 46.8% 4.3% 4.8%   3.2%
Tea Party No 19.1% 9.2% 53.7% 5.2% 8.2% 1.7% 2.9%
Tea Party Yes 5.0% 7.5% 77.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Firearms No 16.8% 6.6% 60.0% 4.6% 8.1% 1.2% 2.7%
Firearms Yes 21.1% 12.6% 47.2% 5.7% 7.9% 2.5% 3.1%
Pro-Life|Pro-Choice Pro-Choice 21.9% 8.6% 56.2% 3.0% 5.6% 2.2% 2.4%
Pro-Life|Pro-Choice Pro-Life 10.7% 12.7% 50.8% 11.2% 10.2% 0.5% 4.1%
Pro-Life|Pro-Choice Unsure 13.9% 1.4% 56.9% 4.2% 20.8% 1.4% 1.4%
Hispanic No 18.1% 8.9% 55.7% 4.6% 7.9% 1.8% 3.1%
Hispanic Yes 20.5% 10.8% 48.2% 9.6% 9.6% 1.2%  
Race African-American 9.7% 2.7% 69.0%   12.4% 4.4% 1.8%
Race Asian     100.0%        
Race Don’t wish to answer 32.1% 1.9% 35.8% 17.0% 11.3%   1.9%
Race Hispanic 20.5% 10.8% 48.2% 9.6% 9.6% 1.2%  
Race Other 13.3% 28.9% 48.9% 2.2% 4.4% 2.2%  
Race White 19.9% 9.4% 53.1% 4.7% 7.4% 1.4% 4.1%
Religious affiliation Catholic 18.7% 12.4% 56.0% 5.2% 5.7% 1.0% 1.0%
Religious affiliation Evangelical Christian 8.0% 8.0% 72.0%   8.0% 4.0%  
Religious affiliation Jewish 31.8% 9.1% 43.2% 2.3% 11.4%   2.3%
Religious affiliation Muslim 22.2% 3.7% 70.4%   3.7%    
Religious affiliation Other 22.7% 9.6% 52.8% 2.2% 7.0% 3.5% 2.2%
Religious affiliation Protestant 13.2% 7.0% 54.7% 8.7% 10.5% 1.0% 4.9%
Education category Bachelors 19.8% 10.4% 52.6% 7.3% 6.3% 0.5% 3.1%
Education category HS 16.2% 2.7% 61.3% 3.6% 11.7% 2.7% 1.8%
Education category Post grad 23.0% 9.7% 52.1% 5.5% 2.8% 4.1% 2.8%
Education category Some college 18.1% 7.4% 54.9% 4.2% 10.7% 0.9% 3.7%
Education category Some HS 4.3% 17.4% 59.4% 4.3% 14.5%    
Age group 18-49 19.9% 12.7% 47.7% 7.6% 6.0% 2.4% 3.6%
Age group 50-64 20.7% 6.2% 58.7% 3.3% 8.3% 0.7% 2.2%
Age group 65+ 12.7% 6.6% 60.9% 3.6% 11.2% 2.5% 2.5%
Gender Female 16.9% 7.2% 60.0% 1.9% 10.9% 1.9% 1.4%
Gender Male 20.1% 11.1% 49.2% 8.7% 4.9% 1.6% 4.3%

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who would you vote for?

hilltrump1

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, who would you vote for?

hillbush

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Scott Walker, who would you vote for?

hillwalker

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?

hillrubio

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Rand Paul, who would you vote for?

hillpaul

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz, who would you vote for?

hillcruz

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Ben Carson, who would you vote for?

hillcarson

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?

hillperry

 

 

If you had to vote today in a match-up between Hillary Clinton and Carly Fiorina, who would you vote for?

hillcarly

 

 

The following questions are for demographic purposes:

What is your party affiliation?

party

 

 

What is your political ideology?

ideology

 

 

Do you consider yourself a member of the Tea Party?

tea

 

 

Do you or anyone in your family own a gun or firearm?

firearms1

 

 

Do you consider yourself to be Pro-Life or Pro-Choice when it comes to the question of whether or not abortion should be legal?

prolife

 

 

Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?

spanish

 

 

What race do you identify yourself as?

race

 

 

Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

religion

 

 

What is the highest level of education have you completed?

education

 

 

How old are you?

age

 

 

What is your gender?

gender

 

 

 

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