Since Harry Truman carried Arizona in 1948, Democrats have only carried the state of Arizona once (Bill Clinton in 1996). In 2020, Democrats feel they have an opportunity to flip the state at both the Presidential and Senate levels after having some 2018 success in the state. A new poll from Gravis Marketing shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading incumbent President Donald Trump by a 4-point, 48%-44% margin in the state with 8% undecided. Biden’s strength comes from improvements over Clinton’s 2016 performance among white voters and seniors. 2016 exit polls showed Trump carrying white voters in Arizona by 14 points and seniors by 13 points. In this new poll, Biden leads among white voters by a single point and trails by 2 with seniors. Trump leads by 6 among men while Biden leads by 14 among women.
In the race for Senate, incumbent Senator Martha McSally trails challenger Mark Kelly by a 5-point margin, 50%-45% with 6% undecided. Kelly holds a 2-point lead among white voters, a 1-point lead among men and a 9-point lead among women. McSally holds a 7-point lead among seniors.
The president holds a net positive approval rating in the state of Arizona with 50% approving of the job he has done as president (39% “strongly approve”) and 45% disapproving (41% “strongly disapprove”). Joe Biden holds a 55% favorable (32% “very favorable”) rating and a 41% unfavorable (35% “very unfavorable) rating among Arizona likely voters. In the 2016 exit poll of the state, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump received a 41%-57% favorability rating.
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 704 registered, likely voters in Arizona was conducted from October 26th through the 28th and has a margin of error of ±3.7%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan