Decided by just 44,292 votes out of more than 6 million in 2016, Pennsylvania is poised to again play a pivotal role in the race for President. A new Gravis Marketing poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a moderate 51%-44% lead in the Keystone state over incumbent President Donald Trump.
Biden’s edge is driven in large part by a 55%-35% lead among independents and a 59%-30% lead among moderates. Both candidates are taking roughly 4 in 5 voters who self-identify with their political party. One of Clinton’s weaknesses in 2016 was among white voters and voters without a high school degree. In 2016 exit polls, she lost white voters by 16 points in Pennsylvania and lost those with a high school degree by 13 and those with “some college” by 3. In this new Gravis poll, Biden holds a narrow 2-point edge among white voters and a 3-point lead among those with “some college.” Biden also narrows the deficit among high school graduates to 5 points. Biden’s lead is also assisted by his 23-point edge among those with a bachelor’s degree and 21-point edge over those with a postgraduate degree. For reference, the percentage of the sample with a bachelor’s degree or higher is 38%.
According to 2016 exit polls, both candidates were viewed negatively in Pennsylvania with voters holding a 42%-57% unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton and a 42%-56% unfavorable view of Donald Trump. Now, in this Gravis marketing poll, voters are viewing the candidates in a more positive light. President Trump holds a 48% approval rating in the state with 49% indicating that they disapprove of the job he has done as President. Joe Biden holds a particularly strong 58% favorability rating in the state and a 39% unfavorable rating.
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The recalled 2016 vote is 44% Trump-39% Clinton with 13% indicating that they did not vote and an additional 4% saying that they voted for someone else. Among those who said they voted for Trump in 2016, 86% plan to vote again for him in 2020 and 10% plan to support Joe Biden while 3% remain undecided. Among Clinton voters, 90% plan to support Biden while 6% back Trump with 4% undecided. The advantage for Biden comes from those who indicate not voting in 2016. Joe Biden leads among those voters b y a wide 72%-15% margin with an additional 12% saying that they are undecided.
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 602 registered, likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on October 23rd and has a margin of error of ±4%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.