In 2020, Democrats are hoping to flip Arizona at the presidential level for the first time since 1996 and only the second time since the Truman administration. Hillary Clinton got within 3.5 points of carrying the state in 2016 and in 2020 it may be a key tipping point state in the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. A new poll conducted by Gravis Marketing shows Biden holding a narrow 2-point edge over Trump, 50%-48%. Independents are closely divided, preferring Biden by a 50%-48% margin, while Biden holds more party unity leading Democrats 90%-10% while Trump only takes Republicans 83%-13%. Biden holds a strong 32-point lead among voters under 30 and holds a 6-point lead among voters aged 65 and over. The gender gap is a bit smaller than has been seen elsewhere. Biden carries women by 10 points while Trump wins men by 6. Among the narrow 2% of voters who indicate that they are undecided, 34% approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president while 66% disapprove.
In the race for Senate, Democrat Mark Kelly leads Senator Martha McSally by a 5-point 48%-43% margin. Kelly holds an 8-point edge among self-identified independents and 71-points among Democrats. McSally carries Republicans by 50 points. The Senate race is closely correlated with presidential preference. 87% of Joe Biden voters plan to support Mark Kelly while 85% of Donald Trump voters plan to support Marth McSally. The 9% of undecided voters support Biden by a 3-point margin and disapprove of McSally’s job performance by an 18-point margin.
Donald Trump receives a strong job performance rating despite trailing Biden. 53% of voters indicate that they approve of the job he has done as president, while only 44% disapprove. Governor Doug Ducey also receives a strong 50%-43% approval spread. The elected official with the highest approval number is Krysten Sinema who receives a 56%-35% approval spread. 41% of Arizona voters who indicate that they will vote for Donald Trump also approve of Sinema’s job performance in the Senate. The one official polled with a negative approval rating was Martha McSally who is just underwater at 47%-48%.
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. specializing in public opinion polls, p2p texting, and political advertising. This poll of 684 registered, likely voters in Arizona was conducted September 10th through the 11th and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.
Arizona Poll Results Arizona (September 11, 2020)