n 2016, Donald Trump upset Hillary Clinton by roughly ¾ of a point in the Badger State on his way to carrying the electoral college. This time around, a new Gravis Marketing poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden holding a significant 54%-43% lead over incumbent President Donald Trump.
Exit Polls from 2016 show Trump winning Wisconsin white voters by a 53%-42% 11-point margin. In this new poll, Biden holds a 9-point, 54%-45% lead over Trump among white voters. Joe Biden has also turned the tables among those without a college degree to a certain extent. In 2016, Trump carried voters with a high school degree or less by 13 points and those with “some college” by 18 points. Clinton carried college graduates by 4 points and those with a postgraduate degree by 43 points in the state of Wisconsin. In this poll, however, Biden leads by 6 points among those with a high school education and is tied with Trump among those with “some college.” Biden holds a 20-point lead among those with a bachelor’s degree and a 40-point lead among those with postgraduate education.
The recalled vote in the sample is Clinton +3 with 5% having said they voted for Johnson or Stein and an additional 7% indicating that they did not vote. Among those who say that they voted for Trump in 2016, 88% plan to support him in 2020 while 11% plan to support Biden. Among Clinton voters, 94% plan to back Biden while 5% say that they will support Trump. Those who didn’t vote in 2016, indicate that they support Biden by a 53%-32% margin.
The 2016 Wisconsin exit poll had Clinton with a 42%-56% favorable spread, while Trump had a 35%-64% favorable spread. In 2020, both candidates are seen more positively. 47% approve of the job Trump has done as President while 52% disapprove. 60% of voters view Joe Biden favorably while 39% view him unfavorably.
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 677 registered, likely voters in Wisconsin was conducted on October 23rd and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.
Poll Results Wisconsin (October 23, 2020)