Two months ago, Joe Biden became the first Democratic nominee for President since Bill Clinton in 1992 to carry the state of Georgia. In the process, both Senate races advanced to a runoff election being held on January 5th. New polling from Gravis Marketing shows both races as close contests within the margin of error.
Jon Ossoff leads incumbent Republican David Perdue by a 50%-47% margin. Both candidates have the support of 93% of their likely voters that indicate that they voted for their party’s presidential nominee in November. Ossoff then receives 6% of Trump voters while Perdue pulls 4% of Biden voters. Among those who indicate that they have already voted, Ossoff holds a 53%-44% advantage. This suggests that the voting patterns from November have continued with Democrats disproportionately voting early and Republicans disproportionately planning to vote on election day. The keys to victory for Ossoff will be African American voters and voters under the age of 50. Ossoff holds a 81%-15% advantage among African American likely voters, 61%-30% lead among voters aged 18-29 and a 57%-41% lead among those 30-49. Perdue leads 53%-45% among those aged 50-64 and leads 59%-39% among those aged 65 and older.
In the special Senate election, Warnock holds a 49%-47% edge over incumbent Loeffler. Both Warnock and Loeffler have the support of 91% of likely voters who indicate that they voted for that party’s presidential nominee in November, while Warnock pulls 7% of Trump voters and Loeffler receives 6% of Biden voters. As with the other race, Warnock holds a larger lead (54%-43%) among those who have already voted. Like Ossoff, Warnock is winning African American voters 80%-15%, voters aged 18-29 by a 60%-27% margin and those aged 30-49 56%-42%. Loeffler is winning voters 50-64 53%-44% and those over the age of 65 58%-39%.
Voters were also asked whether they believe that Biden won the Presidential election legitimately or whether it was stolen from Trump. By a 50%-40% margin, likely voters in Georgia’s runoff believe that Biden won the election legitimately. Trump voters believe that the election was stolen by a 79%-6% margin and Biden voters believe that Biden won legitimately by a 94%-4% margin. 15% of Trump voters and 2% of Biden voters are uncertain about whether the results of the Presidential election were legitimate. By party lines, there are similar findings. Democrats believe that the election was won legitimately by a 86%-9% margin and Republican believe it was stolen by a 77%-14% margin. Independents believe that the election was won legitimately by a 55%-30% margin.
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 1,011 registered, likely voters in Georgia was conducted from December 29th through the 30th and has a margin of error of ±3.1%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.