Author Archives: Douglas Kaplan

Gravis Marketing

2020 WI Poll Results

n 2016, Donald Trump upset Hillary Clinton by roughly ¾ of a point in the Badger State on his way to carrying the electoral college.  This time around, a new Gravis Marketing poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden holding a significant 54%-43% lead over incumbent President Donald Trump.

Exit Polls from 2016 show Trump winning Wisconsin white voters by a 53%-42% 11-point margin. In this new poll, Biden holds a 9-point, 54%-45% lead over Trump among white voters. Joe Biden has also turned the tables among those without a college degree to a certain extent.  In 2016, Trump carried voters with a high school degree or less by 13 points and those with “some college” by 18 points.  Clinton carried college graduates by 4 points and those with a postgraduate degree by 43 points in the state of Wisconsin.  In this poll, however, Biden leads by 6 points among those with a high school education and is tied with Trump among those with “some college.”  Biden holds a 20-point lead among those with a bachelor’s degree and a 40-point lead among those with postgraduate education.

The recalled vote in the sample is Clinton +3 with 5% having said they voted for Johnson or Stein and an additional 7% indicating that they did not vote. Among those who say that they voted for Trump in 2016, 88% plan to support him in 2020 while 11% plan to support Biden.  Among Clinton voters, 94% plan to back Biden while 5% say that they will support Trump.  Those who didn’t vote in 2016, indicate that they support Biden by a 53%-32% margin.

The 2016 Wisconsin exit poll had Clinton with a 42%-56% favorable spread, while Trump had a 35%-64% favorable spread.  In 2020, both candidates are seen more positively.  47% approve of the job Trump has done as President while 52% disapprove.  60% of voters view Joe Biden favorably while 39% view him unfavorably.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 677 registered, likely voters in Wisconsin was conducted on October 23rd and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

Poll Results Wisconsin (October 23, 2020)

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2020 PA Poll Results

Decided by just 44,292 votes out of more than 6 million in 2016, Pennsylvania is poised to again play a pivotal role in the race for President.  A new Gravis Marketing poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a moderate 51%-44% lead in the Keystone state over incumbent President Donald Trump.

Biden’s edge is driven in large part by a 55%-35% lead among independents and a 59%-30% lead among moderates.  Both candidates are taking roughly 4 in 5 voters who self-identify with their political party. One of Clinton’s weaknesses in 2016 was among white voters and voters without a high school degree. In 2016 exit polls, she lost white voters by 16 points in Pennsylvania and lost those with a high school degree by 13 and those with “some college” by 3. In this new Gravis poll, Biden holds a narrow 2-point edge among white voters and a 3-point lead among those with “some college.”  Biden also narrows the deficit among high school graduates to 5 points. Biden’s lead is also assisted by his 23-point edge among those with a bachelor’s degree and 21-point edge over those with a postgraduate degree.  For reference, the percentage of the sample with a bachelor’s degree or higher is 38%.

According to 2016 exit polls, both candidates were viewed negatively in Pennsylvania with voters holding a 42%-57% unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton and a 42%-56% unfavorable view of Donald Trump.  Now, in this Gravis marketing poll, voters are viewing the candidates in a more positive light.  President Trump holds a 48% approval rating in the state with 49% indicating that they disapprove of the job he has done as President. Joe Biden holds a particularly strong 58% favorability rating in the state and a 39% unfavorable rating.

The recalled 2016 vote is 44% Trump-39% Clinton with 13% indicating that they did not vote and an additional 4% saying that they voted for someone else.  Among those who said they voted for Trump in 2016, 86% plan to vote again for him in 2020 and 10% plan to support Joe Biden while 3% remain undecided.  Among Clinton voters, 90% plan to support Biden while 6% back Trump with 4% undecided.  The advantage for Biden comes from those who indicate not voting in 2016.  Joe Biden leads among those voters b y a wide 72%-15% margin with an additional 12% saying that they are undecided.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 602 registered, likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on October 23rd and has a margin of error of ±4%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

Pennsylvania (October 23, 2020) by Doug Kaplan on Scribd

2020 September Gravis Arizona Poll Biden 50% Trump 48%

In 2020, Democrats are hoping to flip Arizona at the presidential level for the first time since 1996 and only the second time since the Truman administration. Hillary Clinton got within 3.5 points of carrying the state in 2016 and in 2020 it may be a key tipping point state in the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. A new poll conducted by Gravis Marketing shows Biden holding a narrow 2-point edge over Trump, 50%-48%.  Independents are closely divided, preferring Biden by a 50%-48% margin, while Biden holds more party unity leading Democrats 90%-10% while Trump only takes Republicans 83%-13%. Biden holds a strong 32-point lead among voters under 30 and holds a 6-point lead among voters aged 65 and over.   The gender gap is a bit smaller than has been seen elsewhere.  Biden carries women by 10 points while Trump wins men by 6. Among the narrow 2% of voters who indicate that they are undecided, 34% approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president while 66% disapprove.

In the race for Senate, Democrat Mark Kelly leads Senator Martha McSally by a 5-point 48%-43% margin. Kelly holds an 8-point edge among self-identified independents and 71-points among Democrats. McSally carries Republicans by 50 points.  The Senate race is closely correlated with presidential preference.  87% of Joe Biden voters plan to support Mark Kelly while 85% of Donald Trump voters plan to support Marth McSally. The 9% of undecided voters support Biden by a 3-point margin and disapprove of McSally’s job performance by an 18-point margin.

Donald Trump receives a strong job performance rating despite trailing Biden.  53% of voters indicate that they approve of the job he has done as president, while only 44% disapprove. Governor Doug Ducey also receives a strong 50%-43% approval spread. The elected official with the highest approval number is Krysten Sinema who receives a 56%-35% approval spread. 41% of Arizona voters who indicate that they will vote for Donald Trump also approve of Sinema’s job performance in the Senate. The one official polled with a negative approval rating was Martha McSally who is just underwater at 47%-48%.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. specializing in public opinion polls, p2p texting, and political advertising. This poll of 684 registered, likely voters in Arizona was conducted September 10th through the 11th and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

Arizona Poll Results Arizona (September 11, 2020)

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PA Poll Results

In 2016, Donald Trump broke down the “blue wall” by winning states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  A new Gravis Marketing poll shows Trump trailing Joe Biden in Pennsylvania by a 48%-45% margin.  The danger for Trump may lie in among the undecided voters (8% in this poll) who indicate that they disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President by a 29%-69% margin.  The undecided voters also approve of the Job performance of the two polled statewide elected Democrats Wolf and Casey by a 67%-19% and 56%-22% margin, respectively.  

Among Pennsylvania voters, President Trump receives a 47% approval and 50% disapproval rating. 94% of voters who approve of Trump plan to support him in November while 89% of those who disapprove of Trump plan to support Joe Biden.  Democratic Governor Tom Wolf receives a 58% approval and 39% disapproval rating. Democratic Senator Bo0b Casey, who just won reelection in 2018, has a positive 53%-34% approval split.  Republican Senator Pat Toomey has an under-water 39%-47% job approval rating. 

A 42% plurality of Pennsylvania voters support reopening schools for in-person instruction this fall while 36% oppose.  49% of voters believe that reopening schools will lead to an increase in coronavirus-related deaths while 33% do not believe it will lead to an increase. Among those who support reopening schools, 15% believe that doing so will cause an increase in coronavirus-related deaths.  88% of those who oppose reopening schools believe the same. 

43% of voters in Pennsylvania believe that only Joe Biden has the mental capacity to serve as President.  84% of those voters indicate that they will support Biden in November.  40% of voters believe that only Donald Trump has the mental capacity to serve as President.  85% of those voters plan to support him in November.  12% say that neither have such a capacity, 3% say both have the capacity and 4% are uncertain. 

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 1,006 registered, likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on July 22nd through the 24th and has a margin of error of ±3.1%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

 

Pennsylvania (July 23, 2020) v2 by Doug Kaplan on Scribd