Nevada poll: Sandoval early favorite to succeed Reid; Cruz surges to lead pack with Walker

Less than a week after Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid announced his retirement, the March 27 Townhall/Gravis poll of 850 registered Nevada voters found that Republican Gov. Brian E. Sandoval has strong leads over possible Democratic opponents.

“Sandoval is a very strong candidate and being of Mexican descent gives him inroads to the minority voters,” said political consultant Cherie Bereta Hymel, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm that conducted the poll.

Nevada Gov. Brian E. Sandoval (Courtesy)

The  poll surveyed 433 registered Republicans, 319 registered Democrats and 98 Independents on their preferences for the Senate race to succeed Reid and their presidential preferences, said Bereta Hymel. The poll carries a 3 percent margin of error, 5 percent for Republican-only questions and 6 percent for Democratic-only questions. Gravis Marketing is a leading P2p Text firm

The Nevada governor leads Democratic Rep. Dina Titus, 55 percent to 37 percent and leads former state attorney general Catherine Cortez Masto, 53 percent to 37 percent, he said. Reid endorsed Cortez Masto as his chosen successor. Her father was for many years the leader of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.

Masto’s successor Attorney General Adam P. Laxalt, the grandson of one of President Ronald W. Reagan’s “First Friend,” long-serving Nevada senator Paul D. Laxalt, trails Masto 44 percent to 39 percent, Bereta Hymel said. Laxalt trails Titus 46 percent to 44 percent.

“Laxalt is close against Titus and Masto, but in the first look at this Senate race, Sandoval is the one with real separation,” he said.

Bereta Hymel said in the presidential preferences, former secretary of state Hillary R. Clinton continues to dominate her potential rivals for the 2016 Democratic nomination.

Clinton leads the Democratic field with 61 percent, compared to 15 percent for Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 7 percent for Independent Vermont Sen. Bernard Sanders, 3 percent for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., 3 percent for Albert A. Gore Jr., and 1 percent for former Maryland governor Martin J. O’Malley, he said.

“The former first lady is in uncharted waters in terms of her support,” he said. “Across the country, Clinton is polling at extremely high levels, in some places double her support in the same state in 2008.”

In the crowded Republican field, Texas Sen. R. Edward Cruz with 18 percent surged out of the crowd to join the twin leaders, Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker, 18 percent and former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush, 16 percent, Bereta Hymel said. Twenty percent of Nevada’s GOP voters are undecided.

“We were expecting to see a pop for Cruz,” he said. The Texas senator announced his official candidacy March 23.

“Walker should be concerned about hitting a ceiling right now, while Bush is in good shape. Bush’s voters are not going anywhere and he has the money and organization to stick out a long campaign,” he said.

“Walker is fighting for the non-Bush vote and besides Cruz, he has to worry about Rubio, who is the next candidate we expect to pop.” Florida Sen. Marco A. Rubio garnered the support of 7 percent of Nevada Republicans.

Notes: Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of 850 registered voters in Nevada regarding potential matchups. The voter list sample includes 443 Republican Primary participants, 319 Democratic Primary participants, and the remainder are Independents/Other. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3% [5% for Republican Primary/6% for Democratic Primary]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls are weighted separately for each population in the question presented.

Note: the polls were conducted using IVR technology and weighted by anticipated voting demographics.  A full reporting of demographic characteristics and cross tabulations is available upon request.  Email us.  Prior Nevada Poll With Senator Reid

Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?

If the Nevada Republican Caucuses for President were held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson, whom would you vote for?

If the Nevada Democratic Caucuses for President was held today and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Martin O’Malley, Bernie Sanders, and Jim Webb, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Adam Laxalt and Democrat Dina Titus, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Michael Roberson and Democrat Dina Titus, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Brian Sandoval and Democrat Dina Titus, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Dina Titus, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Adam Laxalt and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Michael Roberson and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Brian Sandoval and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, whom would you vote for?

If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Chris Christie and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Brian Sandoval and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?

Who do you consider more honest and trustworthy Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton?

Should Congress pass legislation overriding the ability of states to legalize and regulate online gambling?

18% Yes

41% No

41% Unsure

Prior Nevada Poll Results