Businessman Donald J. Trump continues to dominate the New Hampshire’s GOP field four months before its first-in-the-nation primary, according to an Oct. 5-6, 2015 Gravis Insights poll of 662 Republican voters. Democratic questions had a sample size of 373.
“The New Hampshire numbers are interesting, when you consider Trump’s performance in other states,” said Doug Kaplan, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based polling company that conducted the poll using predictive dialer software. The poll carries a 4 percent margin of error for Republican questions and a 5 percent margin of error for Democratic questions.
Kaplan said, “In Iowa and nationally, Trump is leveling off or weakening, but in New Hampshire his support is solidly more than 30 percent and it has been for a long time.”
Trump is the choice of 32 percent of respondents, he said.Following Trump are surgeon Ben Carson, 13 percent; Ohio Gov. John Kasich, 10 percent; Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 8 percent and businesswoman Carly Fiorina, 8 percent, he said.
Pre-Trump frontrunner former Florida Gov. John E. “Jeb” Bush sits just below 8 percent, he said. “There is a cluster at fourth, fifth and sixth.” Bush and Rubio are interesting, too, he said.
“Rubio has not had a bad news cycle for six months, but he is not passing Carson or coming close to Trump,” Kaplan said. “Bush has been attacked for six months, and he is still hanging in there. We believe with his money and organization, he is in the race for delegates and the long haul.”
Cruz at 5 percent is also positioned for the long haul, he said. “Cruz’s support has an intensity similar to Ron Paul’s and his ground game is fantastic,” he said.
In the Democratic field, the story continues to be former first lady Hillary R. Clinton v. Vermont Sen. Bernard Sanders v. the phantom candidacy of Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., Kaplan said.
“Without Al Gore in the race, Sanders beats Clinton 33 percent to 30 percent, but with Gore in Clinton beats Sanders, 38 percent to 35 percent,” he said. “Biden pulls anywhere from 10 to 12 percent in different combinations,” he said. “There is no manic-groundswell for Biden in New Hampshire, but he is in the hunt.”
In the Senate race, Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan announced she would oppose Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte shortly before the poll went into the field, Kaplan said. Ayotte leads Hassan 52 percent to 42 percent, he said. “Hassan is popular, but so is Ayotte,” he said. “Hassan may have peaked already. Her unannounced campaign has been on for months and to trail by 10 points now is not good for the governor.”
Gravis Insights is a division of Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, Gravis conducted a random survey of 1,035 registered voters in New Hampshire regarding the presidential election and other areas. The poll was conducted October 5-6, 2015. The sample includes 662 Republicans, 373 Democrats, and the remainder not planning on participating in the primary, but are planning to vote in the regular elections. The poll has a margin of error of ± 3.1% [3.8% for Republican Caucus/5.1% for Democratic Caucus]. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls and weighted separately for each population in the question presented. Crosstabs by race, gender, education category, religious affiliation, and other variables are available upon request.