New Hampshire poll: Bush leads GOP field, Trump moves into top-tier status

Harrison Thomas By Harrison Thomas June 9, 2015

by Neil W. McCabe


The son of 41 and brother of 43 opened up a clear lead in a crowded GOP field, according to the June 2-3 Howie Carr Show/Gravis poll of 487 Republican Primary voters.


Former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush was the choice of 21 percent of respondents, who said they intended to vote in the Feb. 8 Republican New Hampshire Primary, said Cherie Bereta Hymel, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based company that conducted the poll. The poll carries a margin of error of 4 percent.

“Jeb Bush has advantages going into the New Hampshire primary,” said Bereta Hymel. “His family has a well-known compound at Walker’s Point, just over the line in Maine, and his family has strong roots in New England.”

Watch John E. “Jeb” Bush in New Hampshire

Bush has name recognition in the state, too, he said. “His father won the 1988 primary against Bob Dole, but his brother lost in 2000–and his father lost disastrously in 1980–still, a Bush has been on the primary ballot six times since 1980.” George W. Bush lost to Arizona Sen. John S. McCain III in 2000 and in 1980 George H. W. Bush lost to Ronald W. Reagan.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker and Kentucky Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul follow Bush at 13 percent each and New York City businessman Donald J. Trump was the choice of 12 percent, Bereta Hymel said.

“The race in New Hampshire and in other states has become between Bush and Not-Bush,” he said. “Walker is the strongest of the Not-Bush, but he is competing against nine or 10 or more other candidates.”

Kentucky Sen. Randal H. "Rand" Paul (Courtesy)

Kentucky Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul (Courtesy)

Paul is also strong, he said. “This poll caught Senator Paul’s bounce from his filibuster against Patriot Act, which on top of the good will he started with from his father, former Texas congressman Ron Paul puts him at the top of the Not-Bush pack.”

Trump is a serious candidate and has real support, Bereta Hymel said.

“In the large field of Republican candidates, it has been difficult to decide which candidates to include,” he said. “But, Trump has taken serious steps towards an actual campaign and his personality resonates with voters.”

Among voters from households with firearms, Bush leads with 22 percent, followed by Trump 13 percent; Walker, 12 percent; Paul, 11 percent and Florida Sen. Marco A. Rubio at 9 percent.

Among Pro-Life voters, Bush again leads with 18 percent. Walker is the second choice of Pro-Life voters, followed by Paul, 10 percent with former Arkansas governor Michael D. Huckabee and surgeon Benjamin S. Carson tied at 9 percent.

Among the Tea Party voters, the leader is Texas Sen. R. Edward “Ted” Cruz, who is the choice of 18 percent. The other top candidates are: Paul and Walker tied at 13 percent, Huckabee at 12 percent and Carson at 9 percent.

Gravis Marketing Political Poll

Sen. R. Edward “Ted” Cruz (R.-Texas)

Note: Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random telephone survey of 487 Republican Primary voters in New Hampshire on June 3 – 4, 2015. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4%. Results may not sum to 100% because of rounding. The poll was conducted using IVR technology, with the results weighted by anticipated voting demographics.

If the New Hampshire Republican Primary for President was held today and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, and Ben Carson, Who would you vote for?
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Would you support immigration reform that included a pathway to citizenship for those living in the country illegally?
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How likely is a candidate’s immigration policies likely to influence your vote?
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Do you believe the U.S. is doing enough to fight radical Islamic terrorism in the Middle East?
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Would you support deploying additional ground troops to the Middle East in order to fight Islamic State terrorists?
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The following questions are for demographic purposes.
What is your Party affiliation?
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Do you or anyone in your family own a gun or firearm?
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What race do you identify yourself as?
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Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
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What is the highest level of education have you completed?
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How old are you?
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Gravis Marketing is one of the leading political advertising agencies and marketing firms in North America.  Gravis provides a virtual predictive dialer, voter lists, and political direct mail.