Most people would agree that the recent election year was one of the most divisive in history. With political views that were once on the fringe becoming more mainstream, more attention and pressure than ever have been applied to those in political office, forcing them to deliver for those that voted for them. Perhaps this is what makes a recent poll conducted by Gravis Marketing so important. This poll reflects how people view the performance of President Trump and Governor McAuliffe since they took office, giving a window into how future election results might turn out.
The Poll and the Results
A poll was taken through a random survey of over 3,000 people in mid-March of 2017. The poll was conducted using voice responses and online responses from cell phone users. The results showed that 54 percent of voters viewed the performance of President Trump unfavorably while 42 percent viewed him in a favorable light, leading to a minus-12 approval rating. Governor McAuliffe returned results of 39 percent approval and 37 percent disapproval, for a plus-2 approval rating. The poll has a margin of error of 1.6 percent.
Why Do The Results Matter?
Some people may be wondering why these polls are important, especially early into the term of President Trump. While the next presidential election may not be for another four years, there are midterm elections on the horizon. It is important for people to gauge the performance of the president, governor, and congressmen and women of their various districts so that these results could potentially change the way these elected officials are governing the country for a better performance in the midterm elections.
What Do These Results Mean for the Upcoming Races?
These polls give people a glimpse into what might happen for the upcoming governor’s and senatorial races. While Governor McAuliffe does have a positive approval rating right now, it is close to the overall margin of error. Given that President Trump has a solid disapproval rating in the sate of Virginia, it would behoove Governor McAuliffe to distance himself from President Trump whenever possible. In addition, the senators from the state of Virginia would also be wise to take a look at President Trump’s approval rating. If the voters at all see President Trump’s performance as a reflection of the senators from Virginia, their seats could be in jeopardy as well.
The Governor’s and Senate Races
As stated above, the poll indicates a positive approval rating for Governor McAuliffe; however, the poll results and the margin of error also show a generally split population. This could means that Governor McAuliffe could be challenged by a Republican opponent; however, that opponent would need to distance himself or herself from President Trump given his solid disapproval rating in the state of VA.
As far as the senate races is concerned, former Vice Presidential candidate Tim Kaine is up for reelection in 2018. Having recently lost an election in the presidential race during the previous cycle, some may think that his seat is in jeopardy; however, the state of VA clearly does not approve of President Trump’s performance thus far. Given the striking differences that Senator Kaine painted between himself and Trump’s ticket during the election, it is likely that the citizens of VA will remember this and reelect Senator Kaine to send a message to President Trump
Even though it is early in President Trump’s term, it is never too early to start thinking about poll results and how they might impact the midterm elections.
Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 3,097 registered voters across Virginia. The poll was conducted from March 14th through the 19th and has a margin of error of ±1.6%. The total may not round to 100% because of rounding. The poll was conducted using interactive voice responses and online panels of cell phone users, with the results weighted by voting patterns.
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump?
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor McAuliffe’s job performance?
If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Democrat Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie, who would you vote for?
If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Democrat Tom Perriello and Republican Ed Gillespie, who would you vote for?
If the election for Lt. Governor were held today and the candidates were Democrat Justin Fairfax and Republican Jill Vogel, who would you vote for?
If the election for Lt. Governor were held today and the candidates were Democrat Justin Fairfax and Republican Bryce Reeves, who would you vote for?
If the election for Lt. Governor were held today and the candidates were Democrat Justin Fairfax and Republican Glenn Davis, who would you vote for?
If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Barbara Comstock, who would you vote for?
If the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Carly Fiorina, who would you vote for?
Do you think that gay conversion therapy aimed at changing a person’s sexual orientation should be legal or illegal for minors in Virginia?
The following questions are for demographic purposes:
What is your party affiliation?
Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?
What race do you identify yourself as?
Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
What is the highest level of education have you completed?
How old are you?
What is your gender?
