Iowa Caucus Too Close to Call on Both Parties

Gravis Research By Gravis Research February 1, 2016

Winter Springs, Fla. – With less than 48 hours remaining before the 2016 Presidential Primary season officially kicks off with the Iowa Caucus on Monday February 1st, 2016, recent polling completed by Gravis Marketing on behalf of One America News Network suggests both Democrat and Republican Caucus are simply too close to call. The non-partisan political public relations, polling and marketing firm based in Winter Springs, Fla. conducted a random survey of 1,827 registered, likely primary voters in Iowa from January 26th and 27th and has a margin of error of ± 2% (4% for Republicans and 3% Democrats) with a confidence level of 95 percent.

The OANN Poll; which was completed using IVR Technology automated call system received feedback from 724 Republicans, 810 Democrats, and the remainder of the total 1,827 people polled indicating they were independents or another party. When asked ‘How likely are you to vote in the Iowa Caucuses on February 1st, 2016′, 68 percent stated they were ‘very likely’, 20 percent indicated they were ‘likely’ and 13 percent stated they were ‘somewhat likely’.

The potential voters in Iowa were also asked about in the IVR survey their confidence level of existing political office holders, President Barack Obama and Iowa Senator Joni Ernst. When asked about approving or disapproving of President Obama’s performance, 50 percent indicated they currently disapprove, 43 percent stated they currently approve while seven percent were unsure when asked. In regards to Senator Ernst, 42 percent currently disapprove, 35 percent approve and 23 percent remain unsure of the Freshman Senator’s job performance.

The scope of the Gravis Marketing web based dialer poll then shifted to asking the potential voters about which candidates for each party they intent to vote for on Monday’s Caucus. When asked, ‘Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 GOP Candidate would you vote for’, 31 percent of likely Republican voters suggested they would vote for Donald Trump, while Texas Senator Ted Cruz received 27 percent support. Florida Senator Marco Rubio placed third – with 13 percent, Dr. Ben Carson received seven percent support while former Florida Governor Jeb Bush rounded off the top five with six percent of the potential vote.

On the Democrat Party side of things, when asked ‘Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 Democrat Candidate would you vote for’, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton captured 53 percent, Senator Bernie Sanders received 42 percent while Martin O’Malley netted a mere five percent support of potential Democrat Party voters.

Gravis Marketing President Cherie Bereta Hymel offered analysis of the final OANN / Gravis Marketing poll prior to the Iowa Caucus on Monday. “The polling indicates that a victory for Mrs. Clinton is highly likely, even with Sanders closing the margin considerably in the past few weeks,” stated Bereta Hymel. “Based on previous polling we completed after each Democrat debate, the results show that she clearly has won all debates between the three candidates. Regardless of her opponent, it appeared that there was going to be drama followed by the media and stimulated by Republicans wanting a political race – as opposed to a coronation.”

“One path to victory for Sanders was to follow a 2008 standard set forth by Barack Obama, trying to convince young, male, African-American progressive leaning voters with Caucasian voters with Master’s Degree education or higher to vote for him. Although he appears to have captured a small minority of these voter support based on demographic research from our polling, it looks to be falling short of expectations. Even if he were to pull an upset in Iowa and continue into New Hampshire, it’s highly unlikely that momentum would continue to South Carolina. Another item to consider will be voter turnout; as in 2008, Obama received a tremendous amount of support from traditionally uncommon voters. The key to victory or keeping it close for Sanders will be voter turnout. If Bernie Sanders can rally the troops and bring in larger than expected numbers – he can pull out the upset – or keep it close.”

“On the Republican side – the results on Monday will be interesting to analyze. Last month we suggested that it was very possible that Ted Cruz peaked too early in Iowa; and based on this week’s polling, that statement seems to be holding water,” Bereta Hymel continued when analyzing Gravis Marketing polling for Republican Caucus members. “When Donald Trump skipped the last Fox News debate, the focus shifted on Cruz. In person, Mr. Cruz is very engaging – while on television; his effectiveness seems to falter. Two reasons for his dropping poll numbers could be comments from all candidates and many political insiders about his ability to work with others in the Senate; suggesting that if he can’t get along with colleagues – how can he oversee all aspects of the Federal Government?”

“The support of former Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin also may have helped push Trump to a potential Iowa victory,” concluded Bereta Hymel. “Gaining Gov. Palin’s support was a game changer for Trump – who has pretty much lead wire-to-wire in pre-primary polling. She is the face of the Tea Party movement and is extremely popular with traditional conservative voters. Capturing the support of Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Jerry Falwell Jr. is also vital for Trump – who is not a strongly religious man. Cruz has established a strong ground campaign – and his ground effort could show dividends in the end. Don’t count out Marco Rubio’s recent strength in the last debate to help his campaign gain additional support in Iowa.”