n 2016 as Donald Trump was winning the presidential race by flipping multiple states in the Midwest, Hillary Clinton was able to hold on by 1.5 points in the state of Minnesota.  The last Republican presidential nominee to carry the state was Richard Nixon in 1972 and the last Republican to win any statewide office in Minnesota was Tim Pawlenty in 2006. A new Gravis Marketing poll of the state indicates that the state is poised to continue those trends.  In the poll, former Vice President Joe Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump by a 14-point margin, 53%-39% with 8% undecided.  Biden’s strength in the state is due to a 53%-40% lead among white voters and 61%-37% among those over the age of 65.  The gender gap is also significant with Biden only winning men by 5 points, but winning women by 22 points. Notably, there are only 3% of women undecided while 13% of men in this poll indicate that they are undecided.

In the race for Senate, incumbent Senator Tina Smith holds the same 53%-39% 14-point lead over former Congressman Jason Lewis. Smith’s coalition is similar to Biden’s in that she is carrying white voters by 15 points and voters over 65 by 25 points.  She holds a 4-point edge among men and a 24-point lead among women.

43% of Minnesota likely voters indicate that they approve of the job the President has done while 54% disapprove.  Joe Biden is seen in a broadly positive light with 60% having a favorable view of him (35% very favorable) and 37% have an unfavorable view (34% very unfavorable) of the former Vice President.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 657 registered, likely voters in Minnesota was conducted from October 24th through the 26th and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Cherie Bereta Hymel.

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Minnesota (October 26, 2020) v2 by Cherie Bereta Hymel on Scribd