When Obama carried North Carolina in 2008, Democrats had hoped that the combination of a new blue leaning Virginia and North Carolina would become a part of their electoral “blue wall.” While North Carolina did not follow Virginia in 2012 or 2016, former Vice President Joe Biden is positioned to flip the state back in 2020 according to a new Gravis Marketing poll of the state. In the new poll, Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump by 3 points, 49%-46% with 4% undecided. Trump holds a 3-point edge among men in the poll while Biden holds an 8-point advantage among women. In 2016, exit polling in North Carolina showed Trump carrying white voters by 31 points and voters 65 and older by 23 points. In this poll, those leads shrink to 15 points and 2 points, respectively.
In the race for Senate, incumbent Senator Thom Tillis who narrowly unseated Kay Hagan in 2014, trails former State Senator Cal Cunningham by 2 points, 46%-44% with 9% undecided. Cunningham is performing similarly to Biden with most groups. He trails Tillis by 14 with whites, 5 with seniors and 6 with men while carrying women by 9 points.
In the Gubernatorial contest, incumbent Governor Roy Cooper leads incumbent Lieutenant Governor Dan Forrest by 8 points, 51%-43% with 6% undecided. In 2016, Roy Cooper unseated Pat McCrory by just 2 tenths of a point.
The president’s job approval rating is at net even in the state with 49% approving (38% strongly) and 49% disapproving (42% strongly) of his job performance. As Gravis has found with other state polling recently, voters have a much more favorable view of Joe Biden. In this poll, 55% of likely voters have a favorable view of Biden (31% say “very favorable”) and 44% have an unfavorable view (37% “very unfavorable”). Those numbers come in stark contrast to 2016 exit polling which showed voters had a 43%-56% favorable split for Clinton and 38%-60% for Trump.
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 614 registered, likely voters in North Carolina was conducted from October 26th through the 27th and has a margin of error of ±4%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Cherie Bereta Hymel.
North Carolina (October 28, 2020) v3 by Cherie Bereta Hymel on Scribd