New Hampshire Leaning Towards Sanders; Republican’s Tight in Final Polling

Gravis Research By Gravis Research February 5, 2016

Winter Springs, Fla. – One America News Network and Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm based in Winter Springs, Fla. recently conducted a random survey of 1,573 registered voters in New Hampshire regarding the presidential election. The sample includes 871 Republican Primary participants and 702 Democratic Primary participants. The poll has a margin of error of ± 2.5% [3.3% for Republican Primary/3.7% for Democratic Primary] at the 95% confidence level. The poll was conducted from February 2nd through the 4th and was conducted using Gravis Marketing’s automated call system and online responses, with the results weighted separately for each population in the question presented.

The One America News Network / Gravis Marketing poll began by measuring the pulse of registered voters and their likely hood to participate in the upcoming New Hampshire primary. When asked, ‘How likely are you to vote in the New Hampshire Primaries,’ 54 percent of Registered Republican voters indicated they are likely to vote while 46 percent of Registered Democrats are planning on participating. When asked at what level they plan to participate, 91 percent of the participants of the OANN / Gravis Poll stated they are ‘Very Likely’, seven percent indicated they are ‘Likely’ while two percent replied that they were ‘Somewhat Likely’.

871 Registered Republicans completing the IVR survey were then asked, “assuming you had to vote today which 2016 GOP Candidate would you vote for?’ Donald Trump, who finished second in last week’s Iowa Caucus to Ted Cruz, received 29 percent support of those polled. Florida Senator Marco Rubio placed second – receiving 19 percent of the potential vote while Iowa winner Ted Cruz netted 15 percent support to round off the top three. Ohio Governor John Kasich received support from 13 percent. Six percent of potential New Hampshire voters selected Christie, four percent for Carson and Fiorina while Rand Paul and Rick Santorum who recently suspended their campaigns netted one and zero percent.

After a surprising tight race in Iowa between the two primary Democrat candidates, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, New Hampshire voters appear to be leaning heavily to the Senator from New Hampshire’s neighboring state Vermont. When asked ‘Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 Democrat Candidate you would vote for?’ Sanders captured 58 percent support while Clinton received 42 percent of the potential vote.  702 currently registered Democrats participated in this New Hampshire poll.

Gravis Marketing President Cherie Bereta Hymel provided his analysis of the New Hampshire polling completed for One America News Network through their web based dialer. “With this poll in New Hampshire we completed a web panel of cell phone respondents which produced some intriguing results. On the Democrat side, Sanders has reached the young, white voting segment that showed up in force in Iowa to produce a virtual tie with Mrs. Clinton. Since Hillary has not done much to change that, we expect to see Sanders capture the victory in New Hampshire pretty convincingly.”

“With the Republican primary, things are much more complex and now very competitive,” Bereta Hymel continued. “Our polls indicated that Cruz is gaining momentum in New Hampshire while Rubio is also building up steam from results he received from Iowa last week. A third place showing in New Hampshire could be a huge moment for the Cruz campaign; especially since people like Christie, Bush and Kasich have spent a tremendous amount of time campaigning in New Hampshire. Trump must perform well in New Hampshire – in fact, he needs a big victory. Expectations were very high for him in Iowa.  Marco Rubio’s ground game and final surge post-Fox News Debate dug into Trumps margin in Iowa – the same mistake can’t happen for Trump in New Hampshire or it may cost him in future states.”