The incumbent Republican senator from New Hampshire opened up a six-point over Gov. Margaret “Maggie” Hassan, her presumptive Democratic challenger in the April 21-22 Townhall/Gravis poll of 1,117 voters.
Sen. Kelly A. Ayotte (R.-N.H.), who was endorsed in 2010 by former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, is building a solid lead over Hassan, said Cherie Bereta Hymel, the managing partner of Gravis Insights, the Florida-based firm a political campaign software and market research firm that conducted the poll. Hassan has not announced.
New Hampshire Gov. Margaret “Maggie” Hassen (Courtesy)
Ayotte leads with voters under 50, 52 percent to Hassan’s 40 percent and support of 88 percent of Republicans, he said. Hassan holds the support of 82 percent of Democrats.
In polls pitting former first lady Hillary R. Clinton head-to-head against GOP contenders, shows Republicans leading or in virtual ties, Bereta Hymel said.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker leads Clinton 47 percent to 44 percent, he said.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott K. Walker (Courtesy)
Among Catholics, Walker leads Clinton 49 percent to 41 percent, among Evangelical Protestants, 72 percent to 22 percent, he said. Men favor Walker over Clinton, 51 percent to 40 percent and Women favor Clinton over Walker 47 percent to 43 percent.
Bereta Hymel said the polling Clinton is still the odds-on favorite for the 2016 Democratic nomination for president.
“The recent issues with the Clinton finances and email scandal have obviously hurt her,” he said. “Her announcement did not seem to give her a bump. We believe this is a temporary set back for Mrs. Clinton.”
Bad news cycles for Clinton, do not change the facts on the ground, he said.
“She does not have a legitimate primary opponent and she is on the defense from the Republicans,” he said. “Once the debates start and a front runner appears, we believe Clinton will then be able to draw a contrast and her poll numbers will bounce back.”
Hillary R. Clinton (Courtesy)
Interestingly, neither Walker nor former Florida governor John E. “Jeb” Bush have formally announced their candidacies for the White House, he said.
Walker at 16 percent trails Bush’s 18 percent in the crowded field of GOP hopefuls, he said. Kentucky Sen. Randal H. “Rand” Paul is now third with 16 percent.”
“The Wisconsin governor and Bush still lead the pack in New Hampshire, as we have seen in other states,” Bereta Hymel said. “Paul’s strength was dormant, and we have been waiting for his numbers to reflect both the time he is spending in the Granite State and the popularity of his father, the Texas former congressman Ron Paul.”
Clinton and Bush are locked in a tie at 42 percent, he said.
Paul leads Clinton 45 percent to 44 percent, he said. “The Kentucky senator beats Clinton among Catholics, 47 percent to 42 percent; among Evangelical Protestants, 72 percent to 22 percent.”
Men support Paul, 51 percent to 40 percent, but Clinton leads Paul among women, 47 percent to 43 percent, Bereta Hymel said. “The numbers are a lot closer among women for Paul against Clinton than for other candidates.”
Florida Sen. Marco A. Rubio is fourth in the running, garnering the support of 11 percent, Bereta Hymel said. Among female GOP voters, Rubio’s 13 percent puts him second among women to Bush’s 18 percent.
“The Florida senator runs well against Clinton, polling at 44 percent against her 45 percent–a virtual tie,” he said. Rubio beats the former secretary of state among Catholics 46 percent to 44 percent and among Evangelical Protestants, 76 percent to 18 percent.
Notes: Gravis Insights, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of potential Republican and Democratic Primary voters in New Hampshire, as well as general election voters. The poll included 666 respondents for the Republican Primary and 369 for the Democratic Primary and 1,117 overall respondents. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4% for the Republican Primary, ± 5% for the Democratic Primary, and ± 3% for the poll as a whole. Results may not sum to 100% because of rounding. The poll was conducted using IVR technology. The weighting of the results was performed separately depending on whether the question was for all respondents, just Republicans, or just Democrats.
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