Category Archives: Polls

2020 September Gravis Arizona Poll Biden 50% Trump 48%

In 2020, Democrats are hoping to flip Arizona at the presidential level for the first time since 1996 and only the second time since the Truman administration. Hillary Clinton got within 3.5 points of carrying the state in 2016 and in 2020 it may be a key tipping point state in the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. A new poll conducted by Gravis Marketing shows Biden holding a narrow 2-point edge over Trump, 50%-48%.  Independents are closely divided, preferring Biden by a 50%-48% margin, while Biden holds more party unity leading Democrats 90%-10% while Trump only takes Republicans 83%-13%. Biden holds a strong 32-point lead among voters under 30 and holds a 6-point lead among voters aged 65 and over.   The gender gap is a bit smaller than has been seen elsewhere.  Biden carries women by 10 points while Trump wins men by 6. Among the narrow 2% of voters who indicate that they are undecided, 34% approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president while 66% disapprove.

In the race for Senate, Democrat Mark Kelly leads Senator Martha McSally by a 5-point 48%-43% margin. Kelly holds an 8-point edge among self-identified independents and 71-points among Democrats. McSally carries Republicans by 50 points.  The Senate race is closely correlated with presidential preference.  87% of Joe Biden voters plan to support Mark Kelly while 85% of Donald Trump voters plan to support Marth McSally. The 9% of undecided voters support Biden by a 3-point margin and disapprove of McSally’s job performance by an 18-point margin.

Donald Trump receives a strong job performance rating despite trailing Biden.  53% of voters indicate that they approve of the job he has done as president, while only 44% disapprove. Governor Doug Ducey also receives a strong 50%-43% approval spread. The elected official with the highest approval number is Krysten Sinema who receives a 56%-35% approval spread. 41% of Arizona voters who indicate that they will vote for Donald Trump also approve of Sinema’s job performance in the Senate. The one official polled with a negative approval rating was Martha McSally who is just underwater at 47%-48%.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. specializing in public opinion polls, p2p texting, and political advertising. This poll of 684 registered, likely voters in Arizona was conducted September 10th through the 11th and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

Arizona Poll Results Arizona (September 11, 2020)

Gravis Marketing

PA Poll Results

In 2016, Donald Trump broke down the “blue wall” by winning states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  A new Gravis Marketing poll shows Trump trailing Joe Biden in Pennsylvania by a 48%-45% margin.  The danger for Trump may lie in among the undecided voters (8% in this poll) who indicate that they disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President by a 29%-69% margin.  The undecided voters also approve of the Job performance of the two polled statewide elected Democrats Wolf and Casey by a 67%-19% and 56%-22% margin, respectively.  

Among Pennsylvania voters, President Trump receives a 47% approval and 50% disapproval rating. 94% of voters who approve of Trump plan to support him in November while 89% of those who disapprove of Trump plan to support Joe Biden.  Democratic Governor Tom Wolf receives a 58% approval and 39% disapproval rating. Democratic Senator Bo0b Casey, who just won reelection in 2018, has a positive 53%-34% approval split.  Republican Senator Pat Toomey has an under-water 39%-47% job approval rating. 

A 42% plurality of Pennsylvania voters support reopening schools for in-person instruction this fall while 36% oppose.  49% of voters believe that reopening schools will lead to an increase in coronavirus-related deaths while 33% do not believe it will lead to an increase. Among those who support reopening schools, 15% believe that doing so will cause an increase in coronavirus-related deaths.  88% of those who oppose reopening schools believe the same. 

43% of voters in Pennsylvania believe that only Joe Biden has the mental capacity to serve as President.  84% of those voters indicate that they will support Biden in November.  40% of voters believe that only Donald Trump has the mental capacity to serve as President.  85% of those voters plan to support him in November.  12% say that neither have such a capacity, 3% say both have the capacity and 4% are uncertain. 

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 1,006 registered, likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on July 22nd through the 24th and has a margin of error of ±3.1%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

 

Pennsylvania (July 23, 2020) v2 by Doug Kaplan on Scribd

Wisconsin Poll Results

Wisconsin poll results

One of the key midwestern states that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 that is key to Joe Biden winning in 2020 is the state of Wisconsin.  President Donald Trump carried Wisconsin in 2016 by less than a point becoming the first Republican since Ronald Reagan to do so.  A new Gravis Marketing poll conducted this week of the state of Wisconsin shows Biden leading Trump 50%-42%.  The key to Biden’s lead in this poll is that he has completely erased Trump’s edge among white voters.  2016 exit polling suggests that Trump carried Wisconsin white voters by 11 points in 2016. In this poll, Biden holds a 3-point lead among them.  Among those who say they strongly approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, 92% plan to vote for Donald Trump while 7% say Joe Biden.  The strongly disapprove camp shows an even larger split with 94% saying Joe Biden and 1% saying Donald Trump. Joe Biden leads among Wisconsin self-identified Independents by a 55%-32% margin.

 

The new Gravis poll shows Donald Trump underwater in Job approval, 47%-49%.  All other elected officials asked for which approval was asked got positive job approval numbers including Governor Evers (55%-40%), Senator Baldwin (50%-41%) and Senator Johnson (46%-43%).

 

A plurality (47%-34%) of Wisconsin voters support reopening schools for in-person instruction this fall.  Democrats oppose reopening schools by a 53%-26% margin, while Republicans support it by a 78%-9% margin. The split is similar in the 2020 vote crosstab with 84% of Trump voters supporting reopening Wisconsin schools while only 19% of Biden voters support.  A similar plurality (45%-36%) believes that reopening schools for in-person instruction will lead to an increase in Coronavirus-related deaths.  Among those who support reopening schools, 74% say that they do not believe there will be an increase in deaths, while among those who oppose reopening schools, 93% believe that there will be an increase in deaths.

 

Donald Trump attacking Joe Biden on mental capacity does not seem to be taking hold in the state aside from his own base. 46% of Wisconsin voters believe that only Joe Biden has the mental capacity to serve as president, while 40% believe only Donald Trump has such capacity.  7% indicated that they believe neither has the capacity while 2% believe they both do. Among voters who support Donald Trump in the 2020 ballot test, 92% believe only Donald Trump has the mental capacity to serve as President and 2% say Joe Biden.  Among voters who support Joe Biden, 87% believe only Biden has the capacity, while 1% say Donald Trump. 

 

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 796 registered, likely voters in Wisconsin was conducted on July 22nd and has a margin of error of ±3.5%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting list demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan. 

Wisconsin (July 23, 2020) gravis Marketing by Doug Kaplan on Scribd

South Carolina poll results Gravis Marketing 2020

In the state of South Carolina where a Democratic nominee for President has not won since Jimmy Carter in 1976, a new Gravis Marketing poll indicates the race may be quite close with President Donald Trump leading former Vice President Joe Biden by four points, 50%-46%.  Biden holds a 74-point lead among black voters in the state, while Trump wins the white vote by 35 points.  The gender gap gives Biden a 51%-47% advantage among women, while Trump holds a 53%-41% advantage among men. 

Looking at the Senate race, Lindsey Graham has the advantage, but only holds a 7-point lead compared to the 15.5 points he won re-election by in 2014. Graham’s expanded lead over Donald Trump is despite winning white voters by a slightly smaller 31-point margin.  Graham, however, gets the black vote deficit down to 53 points, the female vote down to a 2-point deficit and wins the male vote by an extra 5 points. Graham benefits from a 50% approval rating in the state compared to a 42% disapproval mark. Voters are split over the relationship between Graham and Trump with 36% of voters believing that Graham is “too close” to President Trump compared to 21% saying “about right” and 6% saying “not close enough.”  A 37% plurality of voters indicate that they are uncertain. 

The Gravis poll finds junior Senator Tim Scott quite popular with a 60% approval rating with only 28% disapproving of the job he is doing as Senator. Governor McMaster receives a 52%-41% approval split. 53% of voters indicate that they approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, while 44% of voters disapprove. 

Voters are split 43%-40% over whether they support schools reopening this fall for in-person instruction. When asked if reopening schools will lead to an increase in coronavirus-related deaths, 46% indicate they believe that will be that result, while 34% do not. In response to the rise in coronavirus cases in the state, voters were asked about who they feel is responsible.  27% indicate that they believe the president is responsible, while 11% indicate they blame the Governor.  23% of respondents blame protestors while 10% indicate local officials and 21% say “no one in particular.” 

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 604 registered, likely voters in South Carolina was conducted on July 17th and has a margin of error of ±4.0%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Telephone townhall Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

South Carolina (July 17, 2020) gravis Marketing by Doug Kaplan on Scribd

Cross Tabs SC gravis Matketing by Doug Kaplan on Scribd

Cross Tabs SC gravis Matketing by Doug Kaplan on Scribd