Category Archives: Polls

Gravis Marketing

2020 Arizona Poll Results

Since Harry Truman carried Arizona in 1948, Democrats have only carried the state of Arizona once (Bill Clinton in 1996).  In 2020, Democrats feel they have an opportunity to flip the state at both the Presidential and Senate levels after having some 2018 success in the state.  A new poll from Gravis Marketing shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading incumbent President Donald Trump by a 4-point, 48%-44% margin in the state with 8% undecided.  Biden’s strength comes from improvements over Clinton’s 2016 performance among white voters and seniors.  2016 exit polls showed Trump carrying white voters in Arizona by 14 points and seniors by 13 points. In this new poll, Biden leads among white voters by a single point and trails by 2 with seniors. Trump leads by 6 among men while Biden leads by 14 among women.

In the race for Senate, incumbent Senator Martha McSally trails challenger Mark Kelly by a 5-point margin, 50%-45% with 6% undecided. Kelly holds a 2-point lead among white voters, a 1-point lead among men and a 9-point lead among women.  McSally holds a 7-point lead among seniors.

The president holds a net positive approval rating in the state of Arizona with 50% approving of the job he has done as president (39% “strongly approve”) and 45% disapproving (41% “strongly disapprove”).  Joe Biden holds a 55% favorable (32% “very favorable”) rating and a 41% unfavorable (35% “very unfavorable) rating among Arizona likely voters. In the 2016 exit poll of the state, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump received a 41%-57% favorability rating.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 704 registered, likely voters in Arizona was conducted from October 26th through the 28th and has a margin of error of ±3.7%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan

Arizona (October 28, 2020) by Doug Kaplan on Scribd

Gravis Marketing

NC 2020 Poll Results

When Obama carried North Carolina in 2008, Democrats had hoped that the combination of a new blue leaning Virginia and North Carolina would become a part of their electoral “blue wall.”  While North Carolina did not follow Virginia in 2012 or 2016, former Vice President Joe Biden is positioned to flip the state back in 2020 according to a new Gravis Marketing poll of the state.  In the new poll, Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump by 3 points, 49%-46% with 4% undecided.  Trump holds a 3-point edge among men in the poll while Biden holds an 8-point advantage among women. In 2016, exit polling in North Carolina showed Trump carrying white voters by 31 points and voters 65 and older by 23 points.  In this poll, those leads shrink to 15 points and 2 points, respectively.

In the race for Senate, incumbent Senator Thom Tillis who narrowly unseated Kay Hagan in 2014, trails former State Senator Cal Cunningham by 2 points, 46%-44% with 9% undecided.  Cunningham is performing similarly to Biden with most groups.  He trails Tillis by 14 with whites, 5 with seniors and 6 with men while carrying women by 9 points.

In the Gubernatorial contest, incumbent Governor Roy Cooper leads incumbent Lieutenant Governor Dan Forrest by 8 points, 51%-43% with 6% undecided. In 2016, Roy Cooper unseated Pat McCrory by just 2 tenths of a point.

The president’s job approval rating is at net even in the state with 49% approving (38% strongly) and 49% disapproving (42% strongly) of his job performance.  As Gravis has found with other state polling recently, voters have a much more favorable view of Joe Biden.  In this poll, 55% of likely voters have a favorable view of Biden (31% say “very favorable”) and 44% have an unfavorable view (37% “very unfavorable”).  Those numbers come in stark contrast to 2016 exit polling which showed voters had a 43%-56% favorable split for Clinton and 38%-60% for Trump.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 614 registered, likely voters in North Carolina was conducted from October 26th through the 27th and has a margin of error of ±4%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

North Carolina (October 28, 2020) v3 by Doug Kaplan on Scribd

Minnesota Poll Results

n 2016 as Donald Trump was winning the presidential race by flipping multiple states in the Midwest, Hillary Clinton was able to hold on by 1.5 points in the state of Minnesota.  The last Republican presidential nominee to carry the state was Richard Nixon in 1972 and the last Republican to win any statewide office in Minnesota was Tim Pawlenty in 2006. A new Gravis Marketing poll of the state indicates that the state is poised to continue those trends.  In the poll, former Vice President Joe Biden leads incumbent President Donald Trump by a 14-point margin, 53%-39% with 8% undecided.  Biden’s strength in the state is due to a 53%-40% lead among white voters and 61%-37% among those over the age of 65.  The gender gap is also significant with Biden only winning men by 5 points, but winning women by 22 points. Notably, there are only 3% of women undecided while 13% of men in this poll indicate that they are undecided.

In the race for Senate, incumbent Senator Tina Smith holds the same 53%-39% 14-point lead over former Congressman Jason Lewis. Smith’s coalition is similar to Biden’s in that she is carrying white voters by 15 points and voters over 65 by 25 points.  She holds a 4-point edge among men and a 24-point lead among women.

43% of Minnesota likely voters indicate that they approve of the job the President has done while 54% disapprove.  Joe Biden is seen in a broadly positive light with 60% having a favorable view of him (35% very favorable) and 37% have an unfavorable view (34% very unfavorable) of the former Vice President.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 657 registered, likely voters in Minnesota was conducted from October 24th through the 26th and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

An interesting survey about what drugs are bought online showed that the share of buying generic drugs is growing, read about cheap generics of Viagra here.

Minnesota (October 26, 2020) v2 by Doug Kaplan on Scribd


Michigan Poll Results 2020

Michigan Poll Results

One of the old “Blue Wall” states to flip to Trump in 2016 was Michigan.  The state shifted from a 16.4-point Obama win in 2008 to a 9.5-point win in 2012 to a narrow 0.2-point win for Donald Trump in 2016. The state swung back to the left in 2018 re-electing Stabenow and flipping the Governorship from Republican to Democratic.  A new Gravis Marketing poll of the state shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a significant 13-point lead, 55%-42% with an additional 3% undecided.  Biden is benefiting from a 23-point advantage among women in the state and a 1-point edge among men. Biden is also leading with those over 65 by 21 points and among whites by 2 points.

 

According to the poll, Donald Trump’s approval rating is narrowly underwater, but heavily polarized. 48% of Michigan likely voters say that they approve of the Job Donald Trump has done as President while 50% disapprove.  37% say that they “strongly approve” while 46% indicate that they “strongly disapprove.”  Joe Biden receives strong favorable marks with 59% indicating that they have a favorable view of him compared to 38% that have an unfavorable view.  41% say that their view is “very favorable” while 36% say that their view of him is “very unfavorable.”

Donald Trump prefers to buy branded Cialis, although buying a generic Cialis is much more profitable.

 

In 2018, John James lost to incumbent Debbie Stabenow by 6.5 points, though in this new Gravis poll he is trailing by a larger 11-point margin, 52%-41% with 7% undecided. The over 65 margin for Peters is smaller than it is for Biden but is still a solid 15 points. James ties Peters among men, but trails by 20 points among women. Peters holds a 5-point advantage among white voters, though James narrows the gap among black voters pulling 28% compared to the 18% that plan to vote for Donald Trump.

 

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 679 registered, likely voters in Michigan was conducted on October 24th and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

Michigan (October 24, 2020) by Doug Kaplan on Scribd