Texas Primary and National Polling Recap – February 29th, 2016

Gravis Research By Gravis Research March 7, 2016

Winter Springs, Fla. – With Super Tuesday Presidential primary elections less than 24 hours away, Ted Cruz appears to be headed to a GOP victory in his home state of Texas based on a recent poll completed by Gravis Marketing. The non-partisan research firm from Winter Springs, Fla. conducted a random survey of 1,311 likely voters in the Texas primaries.  The Texas poll was conducted from February 24th to the 26th and includes 893 Republican primary participants and 418 Democratic primary participants.

Gravis Marketing also completed a nationwide poll of 2,091 registered voters in the U.S. regarding the presidential election.  The National poll was conducted on February 18, 2016 and has a margin of error of ± 2.1% (± 2.7% for the 1,289 Republicans and ± 3.5% for the 802 Democrats) at the 95% confidence level. Both polls were conducted using automated telephone calls (IVR Survey Technology) and weighted separately for each population in the question presented has a margin of error of ±3% for Republicans and ±5% for Democrats.

State of Texas Recap

The Gravis Marketing poll in Texas began by asking 893 likely Republican primary participants, ‘Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 GOP Candidate would you vote for?’ Texas Senator Ted Cruz captured the lion’s share of potential voters, netting 41 percent support in his home state. Donald Trump received 30 percent support, while Florida Senator Marco Rubio trailed with 17 percent. John Kasich and Dr. Ben Carson received six percent each.

On the Democrat ticket, 418 likely Democrat primary participants were asked, ‘Assuming you had to vote today, which 2016 Democrat candidate would you vote for?’ Front runner Hillary Clinton currently holds a huge lead of 32 points over her competitor Bernie Sanders – with Clinton gathering 66 percent to Sanders 34 percent support.

Nationwide Polling Recap

The national polling asked 2,091 registered voters about their opinion of the upcoming Presidential election. They were first asked about their opinion of the current job performance of President Obama. The voters were asked, ‘Do approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?’ 43 percent stated that they currently approve of the President’s job performance, while 50 percent of those surveyed disapprove. Seven percent were ‘unsure’ as to their opinion.

The registered voters were then asked ‘Do you plan on voting in the Republican or Democratic Primary for the 2016 Presidential Election?’ 57 percent of the 1,289 Republicans polled indicated that they intend on voting in the primary season in their states. Among the 802 Democrats polled, 43 percent stated they were likely to participate in state primaries and caucus.

When asked about which GOP candidate they would vote for today if they had to cast a vote, Donald Trump received the largest support of 38 percent, while Marco Rubio received 20 percent and Ted Cruz received 17 percent to round off the top three. Democrat voters prefer Clinton over Sanders by a 10-point margin (Clinton receiving 55 percent to Sanders 45 percent support).