Human Events-Gravis Marketing Texas Poll
Human Events-Gravis Marketing, conducted a random IVR poll of 729 likely republican primary voters in Texas regarding Republican Steve Stockman and Republican John Cornyn between 2/10/14 and 2/12/14. The poll carries a margin of error of 3.6%. The telephone poll was conducted using automated phone calls to landlines and live operators contacting cellphone only households.
The Telephone poll centered on voters’ approval of Stockman and Cornyn and surveyed voters on candidate preference if the election were held today. John Cornyn, the Senate Minority Whip who has held his seat since 2002 has been cast by GOP challenger Congressman Steve Stockman as a beltway insider and will likely try to frame his challenge to the seat as a referendum on Washington politics.
Douglas Kaplan of Gravis Marketing states, “Congressman Stockman is much closer than expected. Cornyn is under 50% with a significant amount still undecided, which is dangerous territory for an incumbent. The poll was conducted before Cornyn’s recent cloture vote on raising the debt limit, which could hurt him among conservative primary voters.”
Among all registered voters when asked “Do you approve or disapprove of Republican Steve Stockman?”, 55% indicated they were unsure while 28% approved and 18% disapproved. Further, when asked “Do you approve or disapprove of John Cornyn?”, 49% indicated they approved, 26% disapproved and 24% were unsure.
Lastly, when asked, “If the election for U.S. Senate Primary were held today, would you vote for Republican Steve Stockman or Republican John Cornyn?”, Cornyn holds a 15-point lead (43% to 28%) over Stockman with 29% of voters expressing uncertainty over their choice. The uncertain voters at this stage in the contest could indicate that Stockman’s entry into race on December 9, 2013 has inserted uncertainty into the minds of Cornyn supporters or those who may have abstained from voting.
Examining these data on party identification and ideology metrics, voters surveyed about their approval of Stockman showed a modest majority of uncertainty among Independents (54.9%) and Republicans (54.2%), while only 32.7% of identified Republicans indicated they approved of this candidate. For Cornyn, voters appeared to be more salient in their preferences with uncertainty at 23.9% among Independents and 21.9% among Republicans; 41.4% of Independents expressed disapproval, while only 20.2% of Republicans disapproved.
Support for Cornyn rests primarily in Republicans at 57.9%, while 34.7% of Independents expressed approval.
The most significant data here rests among those surveyed who identified themselves as Very Conservative. Among these voters, Cornyn holds a 12.3 percentage point advantage over Stockman (46.2% to 33.9%). Interestingly, among this group of voters, the uncertainty gap was significant with 21.9% expressing uncertainty about Cornyn’s candidacy and 50.6% indicating the same for Stockman. Gravis is a leading political phone banking company
Do you approve or disapprove of Republican Steve Stockman?
Do you approve or disapprove of John Cornyn?
If the election for U.S. Senate Primary were held today, would you vote for Republican Steve Stockman or Republican John Cornyn?
The following questions are for demographic purposes.
What is your political party affiliation?
Are you Hispanic?
What race do you identify yourself as?
Politically speaking, how would you describe you your political views?
Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
What is the highest level of education you have completed?
How old are you?
What is your Gender?
Note: the telephone polls were conducted using automated telephone for landlines (692 responses) and live cell phone calls for cell phones (37 responses). The results are weighed according to anticipated voting geographic and demographics characteristics.
Previous Gravis Marketing telephone Polls Florida Telephone Poll Florida Congressional Telephone Poll shows David Jolly winning his primary.
Pingback: Texas - Sen. Cornyn in Danger Zone Against GOP Primary Opponent - JP Updates | JP Updates
Pingback: Stockman Closing Gap on Cornyn in Latest TX Senate Poll
This poll omits the candidate who consistently beats both of the insider candidates, Dwayne Stovall. It is typical of the Republican Party establishment to do its best to skew the polls against a grass roots candidate.
Exactly. I voted for Dwayne Stovall.
(I used to support Stockman early on until i heard of Stovall)
Pingback: 2010 Redux: Team Obama goes all in on global warming | International American Council
Pingback: 2010 Redux: Team Obama goes all in on global warming
Pingback: 2010 Redux: Team Obama goes all in on global warming | Liberty Loyalists
Pingback: 2010 Redux: Team Obama goes all in on global warming - Fox News | ▇ ▅ █ ▅ ▇ ▂ ▃ ▁ ▁ ▅ ▃ ▅ ▅ ▄ ▅ ▇
Pingback: Texas GOP poll: Cornyn 43% leads Stockman 28%; Failure to garner 50% triggers run off
Pingback: 2010 Redux: Team Obama goes all in on global warming – Fox News | Teamericans.us
Pingback: Telephone poll: Stockman closing in on Cornyn | Houston News
Pingback: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 2/17 | ▇ ▅ █ ▅ ▇ ▂ ▃ ▁ ▁ ▅ ▃ ▅ ▅ ▄ ▅ ▇
Pingback: Stockman gains 22 points in latest poll; Cornyn well under 50 - iVoter.com | iVoter.com
What about the other candidates in the race. Could you post the raw data tables please?.
What about the other candidates in the race. Could you post the raw data tables please?.
What about the other candidates in the race. Could you post the raw data tables please?
Pingback: Da Tech Guy On DaRadio Blog » Blog Archive » A Small opening in the Texas Senate Race
Pingback: 2010 Redux: Team Obama goes all in on global warming | NEWS.GNOM.ES
Any time y’all want to cunduct a real poll, just l et me know. Dwayne Stovall (it would seem) could easily represent that “unsure” slot. And you didn’t even give them choice of “other”? No wonder “push polls” are so unpopular. You may have just hurt Stockman’s chances, which of course, would be a good thing. Who actually paid for this poll? Stockman has huge campaign debt, and Cornyn wouldn’t bother with it. Just curious.
OH My God. If STeve Stockman wins, please God, I pray that a moderate voice of reason will win in the general election. Stockman, is truly scary. The only Republican who invited Ted Nugent to the state of the union after Nugent once made a subtle threat to Obama. God, these Tea Vipers are toxic!
Pingback: Titanic shift in key Senate race
Pingback: Steve Stockman Gains On John Cornyn In Latest GOP Primary Poll | bloggergate
Pingback: Steve Stockman Gains On John Cornyn In Latest GOP Primary Poll | Political Ration
This poll is not worth the read. It is focussed on choosing the lesser of two evils….there are other candidates and if half the time was given to any of them they too might be as recognizable as any other. Cornyn has wronged Texas and he knows it! There ARE other candidates that would do well. I won’t tell you my thoughts on Stockman. I choose Ken Cope, down to earth business man, military background and real solutions to real problems. Read about them yourself at http://www.copetexas.com
Pingback: Titanic Republican shift in key Senate race that could send shock waves through GOP - ALIPAC
Pingback: Texas Primaries: Cornyn Slipping Well Below 50% | ▇ ▅ █ ▅ ▇ ▂ ▃ ▁ ▁ ▅ ▃ ▅ ▅ ▄ ▅ ▇
My vote would be for Stockman.
I am Republican, BUT I SUPPORT THE TEA PARTY FIRST!!!!!
Pingback: Titanic Republican shift in key Senate race | Colorado Can We Talk
Pingback: Texas Primaries: Cornyn Slipping Well Below 50% | Follow Liberty - Liberty Starts Now
Pingback: Cornyn Falls Behind Stockman in GOP Primary Poll | TexanPost
Pingback: Texas Telephone Survey: Republicans Undecided About Cornyn and Stockman
Pingback: Texas Telephone Survey: Republicans Undecided About Cornyn and Stockman | SproutNews
If you did a poll and mentioned Dwayne Stovall’s name, you might be quite surprised how well he stacks up against Cornyn..
If you were to do a poll and included Dwayne Stovall, you would be quite surprised to see how well he stacks up against Cornyn.
Pingback: Steve Stockman's Senate Campaign May Be Weird and Lazy, but It's Not Surging | ▇ ▅ █ ▅ ▇ ▂ ▃ ▁ ▁ ▅ ▃ ▅ ▅ ▄ ▅ ▇
Pingback: Defining deviancy all the way down the Texas ballot | Behind Frenemy Lines
Pingback: Texas Telephone Survey: Republicans Undecided About Cornyn and Stockman « MarketersMedia – Press Release Distribution Services – News Release Distribution Services