Two months ago, Joe Biden became the first Democratic nominee for President since Bill Clinton in 1992 to carry the state of Georgia. In the process, both Senate races advanced to a runoff election being held on January 5th. New polling from Gravis Marketing shows both races as close contests within the margin of error.
Jon Ossoff leads incumbent Republican David Perdue by a 50%-47% margin. Both candidates have the support of 93% of their likely voters that indicate that they voted for their party’s presidential nominee in November. Ossoff then receives 6% of Trump voters while Perdue pulls 4% of Biden voters. Among those who indicate that they have already voted, Ossoff holds a 53%-44% advantage. This suggests that the voting patterns from November have continued with Democrats disproportionately voting early and Republicans disproportionately planning to vote on election day. The keys to victory for Ossoff will be African American voters and voters under the age of 50. Ossoff holds a 81%-15% advantage among African American likely voters, 61%-30% lead among voters aged 18-29 and a 57%-41% lead among those 30-49. Perdue leads 53%-45% among those aged 50-64 and leads 59%-39% among those aged 65 and older.
In the special Senate election, Warnock holds a 49%-47% edge over incumbent Loeffler. Both Warnock and Loeffler have the support of 91% of likely voters who indicate that they voted for that party’s presidential nominee in November, while Warnock pulls 7% of Trump voters and Loeffler receives 6% of Biden voters. As with the other race, Warnock holds a larger lead (54%-43%) among those who have already voted. Like Ossoff, Warnock is winning African American voters 80%-15%, voters aged 18-29 by a 60%-27% margin and those aged 30-49 56%-42%. Loeffler is winning voters 50-64 53%-44% and those over the age of 65 58%-39%.
Voters were also asked whether they believe that Biden won the Presidential election legitimately or whether it was stolen from Trump. By a 50%-40% margin, likely voters in Georgia’s runoff believe that Biden won the election legitimately. Trump voters believe that the election was stolen by a 79%-6% margin and Biden voters believe that Biden won legitimately by a 94%-4% margin. 15% of Trump voters and 2% of Biden voters are uncertain about whether the results of the Presidential election were legitimate. By party lines, there are similar findings. Democrats believe that the election was won legitimately by a 86%-9% margin and Republican believe it was stolen by a 77%-14% margin. Independents believe that the election was won legitimately by a 55%-30% margin.
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 1,011 registered, likely voters in Georgia was conducted from December 29th through the 30th and has a margin of error of ±3.1%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the Gravis Research Team.
Georgia (January 1, 2021)
Decided by just 44,292 votes out of more than 6 million in 2016, Pennsylvania is poised to again play a pivotal role in the race for President. A new Gravis Marketing poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a moderate 51%-44% lead in the Keystone state over incumbent President Donald Trump.
Biden’s edge is driven in large part by a 55%-35% lead among independents and a 59%-30% lead among moderates. Both candidates are taking roughly 4 in 5 voters who self-identify with their political party. One of Clinton’s weaknesses in 2016 was among white voters and voters without a high school degree. In 2016 exit polls, she lost white voters by 16 points in Pennsylvania and lost those with a high school degree by 13 and those with “some college” by 3. In this new Gravis poll, Biden holds a narrow 2-point edge among white voters and a 3-point lead among those with “some college.” Biden also narrows the deficit among high school graduates to 5 points. Biden’s lead is also assisted by his 23-point edge among those with a bachelor’s degree and 21-point edge over those with a postgraduate degree. For reference, the percentage of the sample with a bachelor’s degree or higher is 38%.
According to 2016 exit polls, both candidates were viewed negatively in Pennsylvania with voters holding a 42%-57% unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton and a 42%-56% unfavorable view of Donald Trump. Now, in this Gravis marketing poll, voters are viewing the candidates in a more positive light. President Trump holds a 48% approval rating in the state with 49% indicating that they disapprove of the job he has done as President. Joe Biden holds a particularly strong 58% favorability rating in the state and a 39% unfavorable rating.
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The recalled 2016 vote is 44% Trump-39% Clinton with 13% indicating that they did not vote and an additional 4% saying that they voted for someone else. Among those who said they voted for Trump in 2016, 86% plan to vote again for him in 2020 and 10% plan to support Joe Biden while 3% remain undecided. Among Clinton voters, 90% plan to support Biden while 6% back Trump with 4% undecided. The advantage for Biden comes from those who indicate not voting in 2016. Joe Biden leads among those voters b y a wide 72%-15% margin with an additional 12% saying that they are undecided.
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 602 registered, likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on October 23rd and has a margin of error of ±4%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.
Pennsylvania (October 23, 2020) by Doug Kaplan on Scribd
In 2020, Democrats are hoping to flip Arizona at the presidential level for the first time since 1996 and only the second time since the Truman administration. Hillary Clinton got within 3.5 points of carrying the state in 2016 and in 2020 it may be a key tipping point state in the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. A new poll conducted by Gravis Marketing shows Biden holding a narrow 2-point edge over Trump, 50%-48%. Independents are closely divided, preferring Biden by a 50%-48% margin, while Biden holds more party unity leading Democrats 90%-10% while Trump only takes Republicans 83%-13%. Biden holds a strong 32-point lead among voters under 30 and holds a 6-point lead among voters aged 65 and over. The gender gap is a bit smaller than has been seen elsewhere. Biden carries women by 10 points while Trump wins men by 6. Among the narrow 2% of voters who indicate that they are undecided, 34% approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president while 66% disapprove.
In the race for Senate, Democrat Mark Kelly leads Senator Martha McSally by a 5-point 48%-43% margin. Kelly holds an 8-point edge among self-identified independents and 71-points among Democrats. McSally carries Republicans by 50 points. The Senate race is closely correlated with presidential preference. 87% of Joe Biden voters plan to support Mark Kelly while 85% of Donald Trump voters plan to support Marth McSally. The 9% of undecided voters support Biden by a 3-point margin and disapprove of McSally’s job performance by an 18-point margin.
Donald Trump receives a strong job performance rating despite trailing Biden. 53% of voters indicate that they approve of the job he has done as president, while only 44% disapprove. Governor Doug Ducey also receives a strong 50%-43% approval spread. The elected official with the highest approval number is Krysten Sinema who receives a 56%-35% approval spread. 41% of Arizona voters who indicate that they will vote for Donald Trump also approve of Sinema’s job performance in the Senate. The one official polled with a negative approval rating was Martha McSally who is just underwater at 47%-48%.
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. specializing in public opinion polls, p2p texting, and political advertising. This poll of 684 registered, likely voters in Arizona was conducted September 10th through the 11th and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.
Arizona Poll Results Arizona (September 11, 2020)
In 2016, Donald Trump broke down the “blue wall” by winning states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A new Gravis Marketing poll shows Trump trailing Joe Biden in Pennsylvania by a 48%-45% margin. The danger for Trump may lie in among the undecided voters (8% in this poll) who indicate that they disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President by a 29%-69% margin. The undecided voters also approve of the Job performance of the two polled statewide elected Democrats Wolf and Casey by a 67%-19% and 56%-22% margin, respectively.
Among Pennsylvania voters, President Trump receives a 47% approval and 50% disapproval rating. 94% of voters who approve of Trump plan to support him in November while 89% of those who disapprove of Trump plan to support Joe Biden. Democratic Governor Tom Wolf receives a 58% approval and 39% disapproval rating. Democratic Senator Bo0b Casey, who just won reelection in 2018, has a positive 53%-34% approval split. Republican Senator Pat Toomey has an under-water 39%-47% job approval rating.
A 42% plurality of Pennsylvania voters support reopening schools for in-person instruction this fall while 36% oppose. 49% of voters believe that reopening schools will lead to an increase in coronavirus-related deaths while 33% do not believe it will lead to an increase. Among those who support reopening schools, 15% believe that doing so will cause an increase in coronavirus-related deaths. 88% of those who oppose reopening schools believe the same.
43% of voters in Pennsylvania believe that only Joe Biden has the mental capacity to serve as President. 84% of those voters indicate that they will support Biden in November. 40% of voters believe that only Donald Trump has the mental capacity to serve as President. 85% of those voters plan to support him in November. 12% say that neither have such a capacity, 3% say both have the capacity and 4% are uncertain.
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 1,006 registered, likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on July 22nd through the 24th and has a margin of error of ±3.1%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.
Pennsylvania (July 23, 2020) v2 by Doug Kaplan on Scribd
In a state that Donald Trump carried by 5 points in 2016 and Democrats have not carried in a presidential race since 1992, a new Gravis Marketing poll conducted for One America News Network Gravis Marketing
shows Trump and Biden within the margin of error: 48%-45%. President Trump’s lead is largely due to white voters which he leads by a 40-point margin. Biden holds a 69-point lead among African American voters which is helping him keep the race close. Looking at the Senate elections in Georgia this year, the GOP has the advantage. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Georgia since the 2000 special election when former Governor Zel Miller defeated former Senator Mack Mattingly. In the new Gravis poll, Purdue leads Ossoff 48%-43% with 9% undecided. Purdue is aided by his 38-point advantage with white voters while pulling 20% of African Americans. The special Senate election appears to be up for grabs for either Collins or Loeffler. Collins leads the field with 26% and fellow Republican Loeffler at 24%. The Democrats in the race include Warnock at 18%, Lieberman at 11% and Tarver at 9%. 18% remain undecided. If the race proceeds to an all Republican runoff, Collins holds a 34%-28% edge with 37% of voters undecided. The other matchups all pretty much fall along the same line of a GOP advantage regardless which Republican advances. Loeffler leads Warnock 48%-37% and Lieberman 46%-39% while Collins leads Warnock 47%-38% and Lieberman 46%-37%. Job approval for Republicans across the board is positive in the state of Georgia. President Trump holds a 54%-42% approval split, while Governor Kemp is at 60%-36%, Perdue at 56%-35% and Loeffler at 52%-39%. Voters in Georgia trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy by a 50%-44% margin and by a 51%-43% trust Trump over Biden to prevent violent riots in American cities. The poll finds broad support for local police departs. 71% indicate that they support their local police department while only 16% do not support. 73% believe that police departments should continue to be funded while 15% believe that they should be defunded. Georgians also blame protestors by a 19-point margin over the police for the recent riots across the country. On the coronavirus response, the poll finds broad support in Georgia (76%-14%) for international travel restrictions. The poll also finds that voters in Georgia (61%-26%) believe that the United States would have been affected to a lesser extent by the coronavirus had China taken earlier steps to mitigate the spread of the virus. This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 513 likely voters in North Carolina was conducted on July 2nd and has a margin of error of ±4.3%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was paid for by One America News Network. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.
Oann Gravis Georgia by Doug Kaplan on Scribd