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2020 September Gravis Arizona Poll Biden 50% Trump 48%

In 2020, Democrats are hoping to flip Arizona at the presidential level for the first time since 1996 and only the second time since the Truman administration. Hillary Clinton got within 3.5 points of carrying the state in 2016 and in 2020 it may be a key tipping point state in the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. A new poll conducted by Gravis Marketing shows Biden holding a narrow 2-point edge over Trump, 50%-48%.  Independents are closely divided, preferring Biden by a 50%-48% margin, while Biden holds more party unity leading Democrats 90%-10% while Trump only takes Republicans 83%-13%. Biden holds a strong 32-point lead among voters under 30 and holds a 6-point lead among voters aged 65 and over.   The gender gap is a bit smaller than has been seen elsewhere.  Biden carries women by 10 points while Trump wins men by 6. Among the narrow 2% of voters who indicate that they are undecided, 34% approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president while 66% disapprove.

In the race for Senate, Democrat Mark Kelly leads Senator Martha McSally by a 5-point 48%-43% margin. Kelly holds an 8-point edge among self-identified independents and 71-points among Democrats. McSally carries Republicans by 50 points.  The Senate race is closely correlated with presidential preference.  87% of Joe Biden voters plan to support Mark Kelly while 85% of Donald Trump voters plan to support Marth McSally. The 9% of undecided voters support Biden by a 3-point margin and disapprove of McSally’s job performance by an 18-point margin.

Donald Trump receives a strong job performance rating despite trailing Biden.  53% of voters indicate that they approve of the job he has done as president, while only 44% disapprove. Governor Doug Ducey also receives a strong 50%-43% approval spread. The elected official with the highest approval number is Krysten Sinema who receives a 56%-35% approval spread. 41% of Arizona voters who indicate that they will vote for Donald Trump also approve of Sinema’s job performance in the Senate. The one official polled with a negative approval rating was Martha McSally who is just underwater at 47%-48%.

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. specializing in public opinion polls, p2p texting, and political advertising. This poll of 684 registered, likely voters in Arizona was conducted September 10th through the 11th and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users.  This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing.  Results are weighted by voting demographics.  Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

Arizona Poll Results Arizona (September 11, 2020)

Gravis Marketing

PA Poll Results

In 2016, Donald Trump broke down the “blue wall” by winning states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  A new Gravis Marketing poll shows Trump trailing Joe Biden in Pennsylvania by a 48%-45% margin.  The danger for Trump may lie in among the undecided voters (8% in this poll) who indicate that they disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President by a 29%-69% margin.  The undecided voters also approve of the Job performance of the two polled statewide elected Democrats Wolf and Casey by a 67%-19% and 56%-22% margin, respectively.  

Among Pennsylvania voters, President Trump receives a 47% approval and 50% disapproval rating. 94% of voters who approve of Trump plan to support him in November while 89% of those who disapprove of Trump plan to support Joe Biden.  Democratic Governor Tom Wolf receives a 58% approval and 39% disapproval rating. Democratic Senator Bo0b Casey, who just won reelection in 2018, has a positive 53%-34% approval split.  Republican Senator Pat Toomey has an under-water 39%-47% job approval rating. 

A 42% plurality of Pennsylvania voters support reopening schools for in-person instruction this fall while 36% oppose.  49% of voters believe that reopening schools will lead to an increase in coronavirus-related deaths while 33% do not believe it will lead to an increase. Among those who support reopening schools, 15% believe that doing so will cause an increase in coronavirus-related deaths.  88% of those who oppose reopening schools believe the same. 

43% of voters in Pennsylvania believe that only Joe Biden has the mental capacity to serve as President.  84% of those voters indicate that they will support Biden in November.  40% of voters believe that only Donald Trump has the mental capacity to serve as President.  85% of those voters plan to support him in November.  12% say that neither have such a capacity, 3% say both have the capacity and 4% are uncertain. 

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 1,006 registered, likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on July 22nd through the 24th and has a margin of error of ±3.1%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

 

Pennsylvania (July 23, 2020) v2 by Doug Kaplan on Scribd

Oann Gravis Georgia Poll

In a state that Donald Trump carried by 5 points in 2016 and Democrats have not carried in a presidential race since 1992, a new Gravis Marketing poll conducted for One America News Network Gravis Marketing shows Trump and Biden within the margin of error: 48%-45%. President Trump’s lead is largely due to white voters which he leads by a 40-point margin. Biden holds a 69-point lead among African American voters which is helping him keep the race close. Looking at the Senate elections in Georgia this year, the GOP has the advantage. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Georgia since the 2000 special election when former Governor Zel Miller defeated former Senator Mack Mattingly. In the new Gravis poll, Purdue leads Ossoff 48%-43% with 9% undecided. Purdue is aided by his 38-point advantage with white voters while pulling 20% of African Americans. The special Senate election appears to be up for grabs for either Collins or Loeffler. Collins leads the field with 26% and fellow Republican Loeffler at 24%. The Democrats in the race include Warnock at 18%, Lieberman at 11% and Tarver at 9%. 18% remain undecided. If the race proceeds to an all Republican runoff, Collins holds a 34%-28% edge with 37% of voters undecided. The other matchups all pretty much fall along the same line of a GOP advantage regardless which Republican advances. Loeffler leads Warnock 48%-37% and Lieberman 46%-39% while Collins leads Warnock 47%-38% and Lieberman 46%-37%. Job approval for Republicans across the board is positive in the state of Georgia. President Trump holds a 54%-42% approval split, while Governor Kemp is at 60%-36%, Perdue at 56%-35% and Loeffler at 52%-39%. Voters in Georgia trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy by a 50%-44% margin and by a 51%-43% trust Trump over Biden to prevent violent riots in American cities. The poll finds broad support for local police departs. 71% indicate that they support their local police department while only 16% do not support. 73% believe that police departments should continue to be funded while 15% believe that they should be defunded. Georgians also blame protestors by a 19-point margin over the police for the recent riots across the country. On the coronavirus response, the poll finds broad support in Georgia (76%-14%) for international travel restrictions. The poll also finds that voters in Georgia (61%-26%) believe that the United States would have been affected to a lesser extent by the coronavirus had China taken earlier steps to mitigate the spread of the virus. This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 513 likely voters in North Carolina was conducted on July 2nd and has a margin of error of ±4.3%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was paid for by One America News Network. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the managing partner of Gravis Marketing, Doug Kaplan.

Oann Gravis Georgia by Doug Kaplan on Scribd

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Current California Polling

Current California Polling
September 22-23, 2015

Executive Summary
Winter Springs, Fla. – A 12 percentage point lead for Condoleezza Rice over her next closest primary challenger and a four point advantage over that challenger in head-to-head polling general election match-up highlight recent poll results completed by Gravis Marketing. The nonpartisan research firm based in Winter Springs, Fla recently conducted a random survey of 513 registered voters in California regarding the Senate election. The polls were conducted using automated telephone calls (IVR technology) and the results are weighted by anticipated voting demographics.Condi_Rice
As with all Gravis Marketing Polls, voters polled were asked demographic measurement questions to validate data. When asked about party affiliation; 43 percent stated that they were Democratic, 31 percent indicated they were Republican while 26 answered they were Independent or other party affiliated.
The polling questions began by asking, “If the 2016 US Senate Primary were held today, who would you vote for?” 46 percent would cast their vote for Condoleezza Rice of 513 registered voters in California if the primary was held today. 34 percent stated they’d support democrat Kamala Harris. Democrat Loretta Sanchez received 11 percent support while Republican Tom Del Beccaro captured a paltry nine percent of those polled.
The next question narrowed the field of potential US Senate Seat candidates to two; pairing Condoleezza Rice against Kamala Harris. In this case, 52 percent of the voters polled indicated that if they had to choose between Condoleezza Rice and Kamala Harris, they’d select Condoleezza Rice.
Finally, voters were asked “If the general election were held today, between Condoleezza Rice & Loretta Sanchez, who would you vote for?” Of the 513 registered voters asked, Condoleezza Rice captured 64 percent support while Loretta Sanchez received 36 percent in a head-to-head match-up.
The Gravis Marketing Poll has a margin of error of ± 4% and was paid for by the Conservative Action Fund PAC. The complete results of the polling are indicated below.
If the 2016 U.S. Senate Primary were held today, who would you vote for?
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If the general election for United States Senate were held today, between Condoleezza Rice & Kamala Harris, who would you vote for?
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If the general election were held today, between Condoleezza Rice & Loretta Sanchez, who would you vote for?
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The following questions are for demographic purposes:
What is your party affiliation?
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What race do you identify yourself as?
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What is the highest level of education have you completed?
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Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
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How old are you?
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What is your gender?
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