One of the key midwestern states that Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 that is key to Joe Biden winning in 2020 is the state of Wisconsin. President Donald Trump carried Wisconsin in 2016 by less than a point becoming the first Republican since Ronald Reagan to do so. A new Gravis Marketing poll conducted this week of the state of Wisconsin shows Biden leading Trump 50%-42%. The key to Biden’s lead in this poll is that he has completely erased Trump’s edge among white voters. 2016 exit polling suggests that Trump carried Wisconsin white voters by 11 points in 2016. In this poll, Biden holds a 3-point lead among them. Among those who say they strongly approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, 92% plan to vote for Donald Trump while 7% say Joe Biden. The strongly disapprove camp shows an even larger split with 94% saying Joe Biden and 1% saying Donald Trump. Joe Biden leads among Wisconsin self-identified Independents by a 55%-32% margin.
The new Gravis poll shows Donald Trump underwater in Job approval, 47%-49%. All other elected officials asked for which approval was asked got positive job approval numbers including Governor Evers (55%-40%), Senator Baldwin (50%-41%) and Senator Johnson (46%-43%).
A plurality (47%-34%) of Wisconsin voters support reopening schools for in-person instruction this fall. Democrats oppose reopening schools by a 53%-26% margin, while Republicans support it by a 78%-9% margin. The split is similar in the 2020 vote crosstab with 84% of Trump voters supporting reopening Wisconsin schools while only 19% of Biden voters support. A similar plurality (45%-36%) believes that reopening schools for in-person instruction will lead to an increase in Coronavirus-related deaths. Among those who support reopening schools, 74% say that they do not believe there will be an increase in deaths, while among those who oppose reopening schools, 93% believe that there will be an increase in deaths.
Donald Trump attacking Joe Biden on mental capacity does not seem to be taking hold in the state aside from his own base. 46% of Wisconsin voters believe that only Joe Biden has the mental capacity to serve as president, while 40% believe only Donald Trump has such capacity. 7% indicated that they believe neither has the capacity while 2% believe they both do. Among voters who support Donald Trump in the 2020 ballot test, 92% believe only Donald Trump has the mental capacity to serve as President and 2% say Joe Biden. Among voters who support Joe Biden, 87% believe only Biden has the capacity, while 1% say Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research and data firm. This poll of 796 registered, likely voters in Wisconsin was conducted on July 22nd and has a margin of error of ±3.5%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting list demographics. Questions can be directed to the Gravis Research Team.