Executive Summary
Human Events and Gravis Marketing conducted a random survey of 1,346 likely registered Wisconsin voters regarding current events, including potential presidential and senate candidates between 7/31/14 and 8/02/14. The poll carries a margin of error of ± 3% with a 95% confidence level. The poll was conducted using automated IVR polling software.
Regarding the race for Governor, voters were polled, “If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Scott Walker, or Democrat Mary Burke?” Among all voters, Scott Walker (R) and Mary Burke (D) were tied at 47% with only 6% indicating they were unsure. A poll conducted in March, 2014 indicated a 5-point lead for Governor Scott Walker (49% to 44%).
On the importance of the Wisconsin Governor’s race, Cherie Bereta Hymel of Gravis Marketing, states, “The governor’s race is a tossup. It’s one of the most important races in the country. If Walker wins, he’s certainly a likely possibility as a Republican presidential candidate. If the Democrats are able to stop him they will be able to rollback his advances on against organized labor and other Conservative policies.”
Voters were polled on the race for Secretary of State with the question, “If the election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were Republican Julian Bradley and Democrat Cherie LaFollette, whom would you vote for?” Based on these results incumbent Cherie LaFollette (D) holds a 7-point advantage over Julian Bradley (R) with 15% expressing uncertainty.
Concerning the race for State Treasurer, voters were asked, “If the election for Treasurer were held today and the candidates were Republican Randy Melchert, Democrat Dave Leeper, and Green Ron Hardy, whom would you vote for?” Randy Melchert (R) leads Dave Leeper (D) by an 8-point margin (39% to 31%) with Ron Hardy (G) showing 12% support. 18% of respondents indicated uncertainty about their choice for Treasurer.
Regarding the 2016 presidential race, voters were asked, “If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?’ Paul Ryan (R) leads Hillary Clinton (D) by one point (48% to 47%) with 6% expressing uncertainty.
Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s job performance?
If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Republican Scott Walker and Democrat Mary Burke, whom would you vote for?
If the election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were Republican Julian Bradley and Democrat Cherie LaFollette, whom would you vote for?
If the election for Treasurer were held today and the candidates were Republican Randy Melchert, Democrat Dave Leeper, and Green Ron Hardy, whmo would you vote for?
If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Republican Paul Ryan and Democrat Hillary Clinton, whom would you vote for?
How likely are you to vote in the General Election on November 4, 2014?
The following questions are for demographic purposes.
What is your political party affiliation?
Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic, or Spanish speaking background?
What race do you identify yourself as?
Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?
What is the highest level of education you have completed?
How old are you?
What is your gender?
Note: the polls were conducted using automated telephone and the results weighed according to anticipated voting demographics.