In 2016, Donald Trump broke down the “blue wall” by winning states like Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  A new Gravis Marketing poll shows Trump trailing Joe Biden in Pennsylvania by a 48%-45% margin.  The danger for Trump may lie in among the undecided voters (8% in this poll) who indicate that they disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President by a 29%-69% margin.  The undecided voters also approve of the job performance of the two polled statewide elected Democrats Wolf and Casey by a 67%-19% and 56%-22% margin, respectively.  

Among Pennsylvania voters, President Trump receives a 47% approval and 50% disapproval rating. 94% of voters who approve of Trump plan to support him in November while 89% of those who disapprove of Trump plan to support Joe Biden.  Democratic Governor Tom Wolf receives a 58% approval and 39% disapproval rating. Democratic Senator Bob Casey, who just won reelection in 2018, has a positive 53%-34% approval split.  Republican Senator Pat Toomey has an under-water 39%-47% job approval rating. 

A 42% plurality of Pennsylvania voters support reopening schools for in-person instruction this fall while 36% oppose.  49% of voters believe that reopening schools will lead to an increase in coronavirus-related deaths while 33% do not believe it will lead to an increase. Among those who support reopening schools, 15% believe that doing so will cause an increase in coronavirus-related deaths.  88% of those who oppose reopening schools believe the same. 

43% of voters in Pennsylvania believe that only Joe Biden has the mental capacity to serve as President.  84% of those voters indicate that they will support Biden in November.  40% of voters believe that only Donald Trump has the mental capacity to serve as President.  85% of those voters plan to support him in November.  12% say that neither have such a capacity, 3% say both have the capacity and 4% are uncertain. 

This poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research, and data firm. This poll of 1,006 registered, likely voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on July 22nd through the 24th and has a margin of error of ±3.1%. This survey was conducted using interactive voice responses and an online panel of cell phone users. This poll was not commissioned by any campaign committee or other organization and was paid for by Gravis Marketing. Results are weighted by voting demographics. Questions can be directed to the Gravis Research Team.


Pennsylvania (July 23, 2020) v2 by Gravis Research Team on Scribd